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🚨 TOP EVENTS OF THE WEEK: THE FATE OF BTC DEPENDS ON THESE 3 NEWS
📅 TOP 3 EVENTS OF THE WEEK:
1️⃣ US CPI (INFLATION) - THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18
🕐 16:30 MSK / 18:30 TASHKENT / 08:30 NY (EST)
• Expectations: 3.0-3.2% y/y
• Risk: Above 3.3% → pressure on markets
2️⃣ BOJA DECISION - FRIDAY, DECEMBER 19
🕐 06:00 MSK / 08:00 TASHKENT / 22:00 NY (EST, 18 Dec.)
•Important: Possible signals of policy tightening
•Effect: JPY strengthening → risk of global sell-off
3️⃣ PCE INDEX (FORC INFLATION) - FRIDAY, DECEMBER 19
🕐 4:30 PM MSK / 6:30 PM TASHKENT / 8:30 AM NY (EST)
•Context: The Fed's favorite indicator will confirm the CPI trend
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🏛 The Federal Reserve has decided: rates are down, the machine is on.
The Federal Reserve has just made a historic decision that will change the rules of the game for all markets. Let's break it down.
WHAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE DID:
1️⃣ Cut the rate from 4.00% to 3.75% (-0.25%)
2️⃣ Turned on the "printing press" - starting December 12, it will begin buying $40 billion in Treasury bills
3️⃣ Signaled a pause in the rate-cutting cycle
4️⃣ Showed a split - 2 of the 12 FOMC members were against a rate cut
WHAT THIS MEANS IN SIMPLE WORDS:
• Provide liquidity ($40 billion directly into the system)
• But pause on further rate cuts
• Balance between supporting the economy and fear of inflation
In short: The Fed gave the "carrot" (liquidity), but showed the "stick" (a pause in rates). Bitcoin has received support, but not the green light for a parabolic rally. We're trading cautiously.
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China to limit access to Nvidia's H200 chips despite President Trump's export approval
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✅ LIST OF LIMIT ORDERS for the buy
BID:
$80,000 — ~197 BTC
$81,000 — ~102 BTC
$82,000 — ~108 BTC
$82,500 — ~153 BTC
$83,231 — ~246 BTC
$84,000 — ~206 BTC
👇
$78,000 — 1,064 BTC
📌The largest sell volume is at a price of ≈ 95,000 (ASK) — about 1.1 million in volume.
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🚨 EXCLUSIVE: DOUBLE WHAMMER TO MARKETS IN DECEMBER
Everyone's watching the Fed on December 10th, but the real time bomb is ticking in Tokyo.
📅 "Destiny Week" Scenario:
1. December 10th — Fed. A pause or hint of easing is expected. This could give markets a short-term respite and a rally. BUT IT'S A TRAP.
2. December 18-19 — Bank of Japan. A historic event is in the works: the first rate hike since 2007. Probability: 80-90%. The rate will go from near zero to around 0.75%. This is the end of the era of the cheapest money in the world.
💥 Why is this MORE than just a rate hike?
It's a systemic upheaval. For decades, Japanese capital, attracted by zero rates, flowed into all global markets (from US bonds to European stocks). Now this "tap" is starting to turn off. Capital will flow back to Japan.
⚡ Possible consequences (Red December trigger):
* Sharp rise in yields worldwide (pressure on bonds).
* Collapse of USD/JPY pairs (yen strengthening).
* Selloff in stock markets, especially in risky and debt sectors.
* The effect of the "soft" Fed will be completely negated in just a week by a more powerful signal from Asia.
🤔 The main question is not "WILL THEY HIGHER?" but "WHAT WILL THEY SAY NEXT?"
All attention will be focused on Governor Ueda's press conference. If the tone is hawkish (hinting at a rate hike cycle), it's a red flag for the markets. If it's dovish (a one-off correction), a corrective rally may follow, but the trend will change.
📌 Bottom line: Prepare for historic volatility at the end of the year. The Bank of Japan's decision is the main risk in December. Any positive movement after the Fed's decision can be used to reduce risks before the 18th.
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P.S. Has this information already been priced in? Partially. But markets are poor at assessing the psychological impact of the end of the 20-year era. Surprises are inevitable.
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LIST OF KEY EVENTS FOR THE WEEK OF DECEMBER 8-12
📌MONDAY, DECEMBER 8
02:50 MSK / 04:50 TASHKENT / 18:50 NY/DC (Dec 7) — Japan GDP (Q3)
18:00 MSK / 20:00 TASHKENT / 10:00 NY/DC — US Industrial Orders (September)
📌TUESDAY, DECEMBER 9
18:00 MSK / 20:00 TASHKENT / 10:00 NY/DC — US JOLTS Job Openings (September)
📌WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 10
04:30 MSK / 06:30 TASHKENT / 20:30 NY/DC (Dec 9) — China CPI (Nov)
13:55 MSK / 15:55 TASH / 05:55 NY/DC — Lagarde Speech (ECB)
22:00 MSK / 00:00 TASH (Dec 11) / 14:00 NY/DC — FOMC RATE DECISION
22:30 MSK / 00:30 TASH (Dec 11) / 14:30 NY/DC — FOMC PRESS CONFERENCE (POWELL)
📌FRIDAY, DECEMBER 12
00:30 MSK / 02:30 TASH / 16:30 NY/DC (Dec 11) — FOMC Balance Sheet (H.4.1)
10:00 MSK / 12:00 TASh / 02:00 NY/DC — German CPI (Nov.)
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