Google says no βstraight lineβ between generative AI and unemployment β for now
A new study published by Google highlighted the economic repercussions of generative AI and its probable influence on employment trends and workforce dynamics.
Google said that it has found no βstraight lineβ between the spread of powerful technology such as artificial intelligence (AI) and unemployment, according to a new study.
On April 25, the Big Tech company published the study, conducted by Andrew McAfee, the principal research scientist at the MIT Sloan School of Management, on the global economic impact of generative AI.
It was revealed that there is currently no direct correlation nor is this something to change βat least in the short run,β due to limitations of the technology. The report said:
βIt is not yet able to reliably do multi-step work that involves planning, reasoning, or memory.β
The study cited previous work in 2023 that administered hundreds of questions requiring the aforementioned skills to both humans and top-performing AI systems. On average, humans scored 92% correct answers, while machines came in at only 15%.
Nonetheless, the study said that generative AI is on track to improve quickly with βintense researchβ to understand how to troubleshoot its weaknesses.
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It used an example of OpenAIβs GPT-3.5 system, the version released in late 2022 that was a major catalyst for the current AI frenzy, performing better than only 10% of humans on the United States bar exam. Its successor, GPT-4, performed better than 90% only a year later.
It concluded that βthere is no shortage of important work to be done in every society. A great deal of this workβ¦ canβt be done by the robots and AI of today, as powerful as they are.β
The new Industrial Revolution
The Google-released study called AI a βgeneral purpose technologyβ and likened it to the steam engine, which was the spark that ignited the global Industrial Revolution in the late 1800s.
Unlike the gradual spread of technology during the Industrial Revolution, the impacts of generative AI are anticipated to manifest more swiftly.
The study highlighted primarily that this is due to the existing infrastructure being largely in place, allowing for swift global implementation of improvements and because it is easily accessible for people to begin working with.
βMost generative AIβs users donβt have to master a new user interface or programming languageβ¦ It requires time and practice to become proficient at interacting with generative AI, but it doesnβt require many βcomputer skills.ββ
Transforming the workforce
According to the study, while the technology may not cause βmassive technological unemployment,β there is enough evidence that it could contribute to βhollowing outβ the labor force among higher-paying jobs.
βFor all the work done in a modern economy finds that generative AI affects more of the tasks done by college graduates than by high-school only graduates.β
There is also potential for the technology to disrupt the way competition between businesses plays out. The report states that generative AI could further empower a small group of βsuperstarsβ in a given industry in a way that would allow them outpace their rivals.
βFading incumbents will conduct layoffs, and the number of people who need to find new jobs and acquire new skills will increase,β it said. However, according to research, companies that had invested heavily in machine learning were not the ones conducting layoffs