The Last True Gael

Local Elections Summary: Good: - People in the door. 5-10 people, as expected are now in. This is important. People might agree with you in person, but that's not the same as a vote. Now that people have been elected, you can point to this and people feel happier and more confident talking about this. Brand recognition, for lack of a better phrase. Don't underestimate the symbology of this. - Despite the organizational problems with the Irish right, it is still possible to get people in. Hard work, being normal, being a good communicator will get you very far. - Sinn Fein collapse as the grassroots of the party begins to buckle under the different contradictions in the party's direction and leadership. - Green party wipeout in South County Dublin in particular. Euros looks bad for them. - Irish alternative media successfully plugging the gap with ideas now becoming mainstream talking points. - Younger people proving themselves to be more competent than the older generation. This lends itself well to future growth. Bad: - Vote splitting. - Boomers propping up the FFG mess we see right now. - Simon Harris being more competent leader than Varadkar. Not even that he's good, just that Varadkar was arguably the most incompetent politician that has ever found himself in any position of influence in Ireland. - Low turnout hints at demoralization in terms of people voting. - Ideological splits as a result of certain candidates doing well. - Gerrymandering with the "open voting rules" pushing FG forward with better than expected results.

Looks like the Niall Boylan being elected part of this. It's coming down to vote splitting again.

Results of Dublin first count just up. Boylan in with outside chance despite heavy splitting.

Steenson official crosses the line in North Inner City. https://x.com/valerie70154568/status/1799806895727026499

While today has been positive, the main lesson of today has been vote splitting. Here's a video where I explain how the voting system works and why vote splitting reduces your chance of getting seats. https://t.me/LastGael/1641

So in this video/steam linked below, I summed up what I thought would happen. - 5-10 Nationalist councillors would get elected. - SF will do worse than the polls by 5%. - FF will decline. - FG will decline but less. - Green Party get wiped out. - The NGO sector would get invovled in coaching and busing people in to vote. However, there would be issues with this plan. - Niall Boylan would be elected. - Blighe would do respectably well. - The vote splitting would become a major issue in the Euros, but locals to a lesser extent. So far,I think I've underestimated FG's decline, but the rest looks pretty solid/expected to me and on track. Simon Harris has done better with normal voters than expected. Overall, I think we've done pretty well truth be told. And these things tend to take on a life of their own. They tend to grow exponentially. https://t.me/LastGael/1755

A look at non-Independent nationalist candidates. Top 6 NP candidates. Quinlan (Blanch-Mhuddart) 7% Redmond (Ballymun-Finglas) 6.2% Mac Oireachtaigh (Tallaght S) 5.0% Mac Oireachtaigh (Firhouse-Bnabreena) 4.7% McGrath (Tipp) 3.7% Sweeney (Tralee) 3% Murphy (Tullow): 2.1% Competitive for seats, > Quadrupled their vote since last election. Top candidate showings from IFP so far: Moore (Palmerstown-Fonthill) 9.7% Ward (Ballyfermot-Drimnagh) 6% Johnson (Drogheda Rural) 5.5% C O Murchú (Dundalk South) 5% O'Hanlon74 (Dundalk-Carlingford) 5% Fitzsimons (Ongar) 5% Should get at least one seat, massive gains.

As explained before (see reply), the biggest victory is just getting the foot in the door. That’s the main thing, that and a decent 5-10% vote share among candidates per area, which in a lot of areas seems to be the case, in some areas it’s 20% or more. Even if many miss out on being elected, getting a few Cllrs and a 5-10% in multiple constituencies is a massive step up. It took Sinn Féin decades during the Troubles, when they were under heavy censorship as well, to achieve that. This is the very first local and somewhat the first European election where immigration has become a concern in Ireland, so it’s great to see that we’re edging closer. If the Nationalist parties and movements keep this up, coordination among parties/candidates improves, and as things worsen which they will, then by end of decade we could be in for a lot of success given what we’re seeing now. As well, this will provide more experience for the next time.

Boyd Barrett on RTE conceding le fyar roight has managed to get people elected

Holy shit, is Derek Blighe going to get in at the locals?