Turning Point

Day 34 of Ukrainian Resistance ⚠️After negotiations yesterday in Istanbul, Turkey, Russia announced it will "drastically reduce operations in Kiev and Chernigiv directions" in order to "increase mutual trust for future negotiations". Rather than a gesture of good will, Kremlin officially recognizes the military developments on the ground during the past week. 📉The Russian offensive in Kiev and Chernigiv direction was stalled already a week ago and their troops suffered from communication and logistical problems. On March 26th, the Ukrainian forces started to carry out larger offensive operations and to regain ground. Russia tried to maintain offensive by desperately gathering small ad hod reinforcements, probably for political rather than military reasons. The military doctrine suggests disengagement and operational regrouping instead of trying to keep the failing operation alive by small improvised reinforcements. 💀In previous wars, Russia has systematically used temporary truces and peace promises to pursue its military objectives under the cover of "constructive" engagement in negotiations. Regardless of potential political development, the result of yesterdays negotiations is likely aimed to serve Russian short-term military objectives: - To buy time and to legitimize construction of permanent defensive positions on Ukrainian territory, which started already on March 22nd. - To justify partial withdrawal from above mentioned fronts, or from some forward positions, for operational reorganizing and renewed offensive. Partial withdrawls started already on March 28th. - To cool down Northern front to put focus on and possible reinforce Donbas which is currently the only front where Russia has been able to make gains.

Day 33 of Ukrainian Resistance 💵The Ukrainian organization 'Social Movement' launched a campaign calling for the cancellation of Ukrainian foreign debt. Measured by GDP per capita, Ukraine is the poorest country in Europe. The foreign debt of Ukraine, largely aggravated by the war in the Eastern provinces since 2014, stands currently at $125 billion. Only during this year, Ukraine is expected to pay $6.2 billion, 12% of the overall year budget, to the IMF and the World Bank. Meanwhile, the destruction of civilian infrastructure since February 24 is estimated to exceed $100 billion, and it is increasing day by day. All the military and humanitarian aid aside, as long as Ukraine remains indebted, the society will be strangled by international financial institutions and their "economic restructuring" programs. 📣Ukrainian officials claim that Russia has forcibly relocated more than 400,000 Ukrainians to Russia. An exact extent of forcing is difficult to verify but the Russian bombing and the closure of Ukrainian evacuation corridors could support the claim. According to the polls the majority of Ukrainians are willing to resist Russian invasion. The relocated Ukrainians are reportedly subjected to arbitrary interrogations, harrasment, phone searches and attempts to force in giving information about Ukrainian defenses or becoming informants. ❌The International Committee of Red Cross is facing increasing international criticism of its collaboration with Russia and its plans to open offices on the Russian border regions where relocated Ukrainians are currently detained. While ICRC insists on 'neutrality and impartiality', by taking such stance in the face of clear injustice ICRC risks turning into a de facto enabler of war crime. ✊Operation Solidarity has delivered a new shipment of supplies for libertarian fighters in the Territorial Defense Forces. Most importantly, the fighters received 100 ballistic vests of military standard.

The head of the International Committee of the Red Cross, Peter Maurer, met the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on March 24th.

Day 28 of Ukrainian Resistance ⁉️According to CNN citing "NATO and US sources", signs indicate Belarus may join "soon" the Russian invasion in Ukraine. It was not revealed, however, when and where exactly Belarusian army would start the operation. On February 28th, there were already reports of Belarusian columns and trains loaded with tanks moving in South Western Brest region. There has been no development since. 📈NATO will increase the number of troops in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia. Exact figures and details will be discussed tomorrow during a NATO summit but we are talking approximately 4,000 soldiers. 🔮In our evaluation, if Belarus joins the war with significant deployment, there are two likely scenarios. Belarus could provide the numbers that Russia is currently lacking to encircle Kiev. A bolder move could be to launch a ground offensive from South West Belarus towards the city of Lviv. 🚛Lviv has become a crucial rear base, safe haven and logistical hub for Ukraine. Even limited ground attack towards Lviv would cause disruption for the Ukrainian defense as well as for Western military and humanitarian aid. Any ground offensive in Western Ukraine is also likely to trigger another big wave of refugees seeking safety. So far 3.6 million people have left the country. According to UNHCR an additional 4 million may flee.

Polish protesters block 600 trucks at the Kukuryki crossing point on Polish-Belarusian border. According to protesters, goods are imported to Russia through Belarus to bypass trade restrictions.

Day 23 of Ukrainian Resistance 📈The city of Lviv is compeletly overwhelmed by IDPs coming from the East part of the country . According to recent estimates more than 200,000 people have arrived in the city, most of them do not want to leave Ukraine hoping the war will end soon. Before the war Lviv, had a 700,000 population. The housing market has skyrocketed, according to residents renting price has increased by up to 100%. "There are no regulations so landlords are profiting from the situation," a source said to Turning Point. Despite the high prices, it is almost impossible to rent apartments. ⛑The city life of Lviv remains relatively calm, despite recurring nightly air raid alarms. Most of the shops and local business are open, and the city center is full of people going on with their daily activities. While IDPs continue to arrive in the city in big numbers, up to 50,000 people every day, the situation at the main train station has calmed down. Info stands, local associations, and volunteers guide IDPs to assistance, shelters and services provided by the municipality and solidarity networks. 💥Just after 6 am sirens have gone off in Lviv. According to Ukrainian Armed Forces, six cruise missiles were launched from the Black Śea, two of them were intercepted by the city air defense. Four hit an aircraft repair facility at the civilian airport few kilometres out of the city. The smoke was visible from far away. No one was injured in the blast. Despite the strike, life in the city continued as normal.

A train from Kiev arrives in Lviv on Friday 18th of March. Train is full but not packed, and people unload calmly. Warm food and guidance is waiting just outside the station.

Day 22 of Ukrainian Resistance 👩‍⚖️On Wednesday March 16, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the top court of United Nations (UN), ruled that Russia should immediately stop the Ukraine invasion. However, the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated Russia will not abide by the ICJ decision. ICJ rulings are binding for UN member states. Nonetheless, the UN does not have any mechanism to enforce states to obey ICJ rulings. The fact Russian invasion is in violation of international law confirms once again the inability of the UN to maintain the legal framework of the liberal world order. ❌The Ukrainian president office reaffirmed Ukraine's territorial integrity: the status of Crimea and the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk is non-negotiable. Considering the position of both nation states, the war in Ukraine is far from over. ⚫️The armies on the ground are in stalemate. Ukrainian units carried out successful attacks and raids against Russian troops and their supply lines. On the third week of the war neither army has the strength for a major military breakthrough. 📸A Turning Point team has arrived on the ground. We will update from inside Ukraine

Day 20 of Ukrainian Resistance 📣After fronts remained stalled for several days, concerns of a renewed Russian offensive have again increased. Overnight Kiev was heavily bombed. A 48 hours curfew has been declared in the capital. There were no significant advance still in the vicinity of Kiev, but battles continue on the North Western and Eastern outskirts of the city. ⚓️Earlier today, at 09:47 UTC, satellite images captured Russian navy ships grouping on international waters close to the city of Odessa. Odessa is one of the strategical port cities. Capturing the city would mean Russia could cut out Ukraine from the Black Sea, and control all the Northern coast. Moscow could establish a land corridor through the coast all the way to the separatist and pro-Russia Tansnistria region of Moldova. 📸Today, another two journalists were killed in the outskirts of Kiev. Pierre Zakrewski, a Fox News cameraman, and Oleksandra Kushynova, were both working in the same team when their are vehicle got under fire. They were killed, and another journalist was wounded. Since the beginning of the invasion, at least 5 journalists were killed, and 30 others were wounded. Furthermore, at least two Ukrainian journalists have been arrested by Russian forces. As witnessed already in Syria, targeting journalists is a deliberate Russian tactic to silence news from war zones.

Transnistria (encircled region on the Moldovian border), officially known as Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), is an unrecognized breakaway region of Moldova. At the time of the annexation of Crimea, 2014, the chairman of Transnistrian parliament asked for Transnistria to join Russia. Approximately 1,400 Russian soldiers are stationed in Transnistria. A Russian land connection from Donetsk to Transnistria would cut Ukraine out of Black Sea. (Pic: WSJ)

Day 19 of Ukrainian Resistance ‼️The mayor of Dniprorudne, Yevhen Matveyev, was abducted by Russian forces, according to the Foreign Minister of Ukraine. On March 11, also Ivan Federov, the mayor of Melitopol, was abducted by Russian force. After he refused to collaborate, his whereabouts are unknown. In Melitopol, Russian occupation forces installed instead Galina Danilchenko, a Russian sympathizer. In her first public appearance, Danilchenko asked the people to stop protesting the occupation. She added a new "city council" is under preparation. In all occupied territories, Russia plans to replace Ukrainian local governance with politicians trusted by Moscow. 🏴In central London a group of anarchists have entered the empty mansion of the oligarch Oleg Deripaska in the middle of the night. The group hung the Ukrainian flag outside the building and a banner saying "this property has been vacated". The house, worth around 50 million pounds, will be used to host refugees fleeing from war. The day before in Biarritz, France, the anti-war protester Pierre Afner entered the house of Putin's daughter Katerina Tikonova. Shortly after, he was arrested by French authorities.

A £50 million mansion of Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska "liberated" in London.

Day 18 of Ukrainian Resistance 💥Russian Air Force fired 8 missiles at a military base in Yavoriv in Lviv region, 25 km from the Poland border, leaving at least 35 dead and 134 wounded. The base is a logistical hub, and is currently used by the Foreign Legion of the Territorial Defense Force. Beforehand, Western military instructors have been training Ukrainian army at the Yavoriv base. While the air strike doesn't have any military operational purpose, it is a clear sign that Moscow can target volunteers anywhere in the Ukrainian territory including close to the Polish border where there are no active frontlines. ❌According to Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Russian troops have been cut off from logistic supply lines, and they now received the order to enter into "self-sufficient" mode. In other words, soldiers need to obtain supplies themselves. In Russian occupied territories videos show soldiers looting villages. ✊The anti-authoritarian Resistance Committee, with the help of cross-border support and logistics group, received two trucks of supplies, including much needed personal protection equipment, communication devices, medical kits, and night vision goggles. The Resistance Committee also shared a new registration form for internationalists willing to join the units.

Russian soldiers looting a chicken store in Ukraine (Euromaidan Press)

Day 17 of Ukrainian Resistance ✊Russian troops are regrouping North West of Kiev in anticipation of renewed attack against the capital. A source in Kiev region informs us: "What I saw in the countryside is that there is one or more checkpoints in every settlement and village. And most of them are DIY, guarded by locals in civilian or commercial military clothing. Majority of the weapons are probably from the state, but there is really a popular militia confronting the occupation in every village of Kiev region." Russia has reportedly concentrated additional manpower towards Kiev. However, according to satellite images, the existing numbers are not enough to break the defenses of Kiev. First objective will be a siege of the city. According to the city administration, Kiev can stand 2 weeks under siege and after that a humanitarian catastrophe is likely to escalate rapidly. As neither the armed forces and militias nor the state leadership of Ukraine showed signs of surrender, the Russian offensive focuses more and more against the civil society. Psychological warfare, extreme violence combined with propaganda, is likely to intensify in order to break the will of the society. In Mariupol and Kharkiv, Russia is already testing the resilience of the society and how big sacrifice Ukrainians are ready to make in order to continue resistance. The war in Ukraine is turning into a total war: the society and armed forces fight as one, and neither can survive without the other.

Kiev is turning into a fortress city.

Warsaw train station has become a transportation hub for fleeing people.

Since the war started, thousands of people have arrived at the central train station in Warsaw, Poland. They all seek shelter, and many do not have a place to go. “There are no sleep places available anymore,” said one volunteer. The same situation is also happening in Krakov; the country is overwhelmed. “We are dealing with the greatest migration crisis in the history of Europe since World War II. ... The situation is getting more and more difficult every day,” said the Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski adding the worst is yet to come. With no sign of the war stopping anytime soon, most refugees - mainly women children, since men can’t leave the country - are faced with a hard decision, stay in Poland or go to another EU country. “A lot of people are hoping to go back soon, though staying in Warsaw right now is very problematic.” The Polish government offers 200 euros a month to anyone hosting Ukrainians in their apartments.

Day 16 of Ukrainian Resistance ‼️The bombing of maternity hospital in Mariupol has created global outrage. As on Tuesday March 8, the Ukrainian Health Ministry revealed 61 hospitals had been targeted by Russian fire. If you run a field hospital or makeshift clinic in Ukraine, keep your location well hidden - hospitals are deliberate targets by Russian Armed Forces. While bombing a medical facility is a severe war crime, in Syria “deliberate and systematic targeting of hospitals” was concluded to be a part of Russian Air Force and Syrian Arab Army strategy to crush the resistance in cities. According to International Rescue Committee (IRC) survey, 56 % of interviewed Syrians said they would be afraid to live near health facilities since they are targets of missile and air strikes. Several hospitals and makeshift clinics stopped sharing their GPS coordinates with the "UN protection mechanism" in fear Russia abuses the protection mechanism for the opposite purpose and deliberately target the medical facilities. Doctors Without Borders confirmed that sharing coordinates with Russian forces increased chance of direct targeting. Read full International Rescue Committee report on attacks on health care in Syria. ❓Conflicting reports emerged about shelling Belorussian villages close to Ukrainian border. The Ukrainian Armed Forces claim a Russian jet bombed Belorussian villages, while Belorussian authorities assert that no explosions or strikes happened. Ukrainian officials highly alerted of Belorussian Armed Forces joining Russian invasion in Ukraine. Several sources, including UA parliamentarians, raise concern of deployment taking place already tonight.

Mariupol maternity hospital after a Russian strike.