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Macro History Archive
체크포인트 6. 외ꡭ인 μ„ λ¬Ό 맀수 지속
체크포인트 6. 외ꡭ인 μ„ λ¬Ό 맀수 지속

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일반적으둜 μ΅œλŒ€ κ±°λž˜λŸ‰μ„ λ™λ°˜ν•˜λ©΄ μΆ”μ„Έλ₯Ό μ „ν™˜ν•˜λŠ” μ‹œκ·Έλ„λ‘œ μž‘μš©ν•˜λŠ” κ²½μš°κ°€ λ§Žμ•„ SKν•˜μ΄λ‹‰μŠ€μ™€ μ‚Όμ„±μ „μžμ—λŠ” 긍정적인 λͺ¨μŠ΅μ΄λ©°, 개인 ν’‹μ˜΅μ…˜λ§€μˆ˜λŠ” μ‹œμž₯ 저점을 μ•Œλ¦¬λŠ” 긍정적인 μ‹œκ·Έλ„μ΄κΈ°λ„ 함 (μ˜¬ν•΄ 6μ›” 8일, 3μ›” 4일 μ°Έμ‘°) ν—ˆλ‚˜ ν˜„μž¬ λ ˆλ²¨μ—μ„œλ„ 외ꡭ인은 ν˜„λ¬Ό 맀수λ₯Ό λ‚˜μ„œμ§€ μ•ŠλŠ” λͺ¨μŠ΅μ— 경계심을 κ°€μ Έμ•Όν•  κ²ƒμœΌλ‘œ λ³΄μž„, κ·Έλ ‡μ§€λ§Œ μ§€κΈˆ λ ˆλ²¨μ—μ„œ 더이상 λ§€λ„λŠ” 싀읡이 μ—†μ–΄ μΆ”κ°€ λ§€μˆ˜κΉŒμ§„ 어렡더라도 맀도λ₯Ό ν•  λ ˆλ²¨μ€ μ ˆλŒ€ μ•„λ‹ˆλΌκ³  보여짐
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체크포인트 5. κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ 외ꡭ인 μ—­μ‹œ 2μ‹œ 이후 λ‚˜μ˜¨ λ°˜λ“±μ— ν˜„λ¬Ό 맀도λ₯Ό 늘리고 있음, κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ 이전에 λΉ„ν•΄ 큰 규λͺ¨λŠ” μ•„λ‹˜
체크포인트 5. κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ 외ꡭ인 μ—­μ‹œ 2μ‹œ 이후 λ‚˜μ˜¨ λ°˜λ“±μ— ν˜„λ¬Ό 맀도λ₯Ό 늘리고 있음, κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ 이전에 λΉ„ν•΄ 큰 규λͺ¨λŠ” μ•„λ‹˜
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체크포인트 4. 개인 ν’‹μ˜΅μ…˜ λŒ€κ±° λ§€μˆ˜μ€‘
체크포인트 4. 개인 ν’‹μ˜΅μ…˜ λŒ€κ±° λ§€μˆ˜μ€‘
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체크포인트 3. μ„œν‚·κΉŒμ§€ κ°”λ˜ ν•˜λ½μ—λ„ κ°œμΈμ€ 맀도, ν—ˆλ‚˜ 금투 λ§€μˆ˜κ°€ 개인 맀도λ₯Ό ν¬μ„μ‹œν‚€κ³  μžˆλŠ” 상황
체크포인트 3. μ„œν‚·κΉŒμ§€ κ°”λ˜ ν•˜λ½μ—λ„ κ°œμΈμ€ 맀도, ν—ˆλ‚˜ 금투 λ§€μˆ˜κ°€ 개인 맀도λ₯Ό ν¬μ„μ‹œν‚€κ³  μžˆλŠ” 상황
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체크포인트 2. μ‚Όμ„±μ „μž 3μ›” -11%ν•˜λ½ κ±°λž˜λŸ‰μ—” λͺ»λ―ΈμΉ˜μ§€λ§Œ 해당일 μ œμ™Έ μ΅œλŒ€ κ±°λž˜λŸ‰ λ°œμƒ
체크포인트 2. μ‚Όμ„±μ „μž 3μ›” -11%ν•˜λ½ κ±°λž˜λŸ‰μ—” λͺ»λ―ΈμΉ˜μ§€λ§Œ 해당일 μ œμ™Έ μ΅œλŒ€ κ±°λž˜λŸ‰ λ°œμƒ
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체크포인트 1. μ˜€ν›„ 3μ‹œ κΈ°μ€€ ν•˜μ΄λ‹‰μŠ€ μ˜¬ν•΄ μ΅œλŒ€ κ±°λž˜λŸ‰ λ°œμƒ
체크포인트 1. μ˜€ν›„ 3μ‹œ κΈ°μ€€ ν•˜μ΄λ‹‰μŠ€ μ˜¬ν•΄ μ΅œλŒ€ κ±°λž˜λŸ‰ λ°œμƒ
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6μ›” 초 λ°λ·”ν•œ SPCX new issue ν¬λ ˆλ”§μ€ λ°œν–‰ 직후뢀터 μ•½μ„Έλ₯Ό λ³΄μž„. 특히 30yr이 κ°€μž₯ λΆ€μ§„ν–ˆμœΌλ©° ν˜„μž¬κΉŒμ§€ +65bp widened. 이후 TMT credit μ „λ°˜μœΌλ‘œ μ•½μ„Έ ν™•μ‚°. β€’ ORCL 10yr +60bp widened β€’ META 10yr +20bp widened β€’ AMZN 10yr +15bp widened β€’ GOOGL 10yr +10bp widened (μ§€λ‚œ 3μ£Ό) μ–΄μ œλΆ€ν„°λŠ” λ“œλ””μ–΄ dip buyer λ“±μž₯. ORCL, META μ€‘μ‹¬μœΌλ‘œ λ§€μˆ˜μ„Έ μœ μž…λ˜λŠ” λͺ¨μŠ΅.
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https://substack.com/@traderinkorea/note/c-299268189?r=3dkro&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
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https://substack.com/@traderinkorea/note/c-299267743?r=3dkro&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
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https://substack.com/@traderinkorea/note/c-260835978?r=3dkro&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
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https://substack.com/profile/5672292-wandering-trader-in-korea/note/c-249766154?r=3dkro&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
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https://substack.com/@traderinkorea/note/c-248354856?r=3dkro&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
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졜근 λ―Έκ΅­β€“μ΄λž€ κΈ΄μž₯ 고쑰둜 μ‹œμž₯ μ „λ°˜μ— λΆ€λ‹΄ μš”μΈμœΌλ‘œ μž‘μš©ν•˜λ©΄μ„œ, 이번 μ£Ό λ°œν‘œλœ 맀크둜 μ§€ν‘œλ“€μ— λŒ€ν•œ 관심이 λ‹€μ†Œ μ•½ν™”λœ λͺ¨μŠ΅. ν˜„μž¬ μ‹œμ μ—μ„œλŠ” λ―Έκ΅­ 금리 λ°©ν–₯성에 μžˆμ–΄ NFP와 μ‹€μ—…λ₯ μ΄ 더 μ€‘μš”ν•œ λ³€μˆ˜λΌκ³  νŒλ‹¨. 1970λ…„λŒ€ 이후λ₯Ό 보면, μœ κ°€ κΈ‰λ“± 및 높은 μΈν”Œλ ˆμ΄μ…˜ ν™˜κ²½μ—μ„œλ„ μ‹€μ—…λ₯ μ΄ μƒμŠΉν•  λ•Œλ§ˆλ‹€ 2λ…„λ¬Ό κΈˆλ¦¬λŠ” μ˜ˆμ™Έ 없이 큰 폭으둜 ν•˜λ½ν•˜λŠ” νŒ¨ν„΄μ„ λ³΄μ—¬μ˜΄. μœ μΌν•œ μ˜ˆμ™ΈλŠ” 1981λ…„μœΌλ‘œ, λ‹Ήμ‹œ Paul Volckerκ°€ μΈν”Œλ ˆμ΄μ…˜ μ–΅μ œλ₯Ό μœ„ν•΄ μ˜λ„μ μœΌλ‘œ κ²½κΈ° 희생을 κ°μˆ˜ν–ˆλ˜ μ‹œκΈ°. 반면 2022λ…„ μΈν”Œλ ˆμ΄μ…˜ κΈ‰λ“± κ΅­λ©΄μ—μ„œλŠ” μ‹€μ—…λ₯  μƒμŠΉμ΄ λ™λ°˜λ˜μ§€ μ•Šμ•˜κ³ , 이둜 인해 2λ…„λ¬Ό κΈˆλ¦¬λŠ” μ§€μ†μ μœΌλ‘œ μƒμŠΉμ„Έλ₯Ό 이어감. λ‹€λ§Œ 2023λ…„ 이후 μ‹€μ—…λ₯ μ€ 점진적인 μƒμŠΉ μΆ”μ„Έλ₯Ό 보이며 3.5%μ—μ„œ 4.4%κΉŒμ§€ μ•½ 1%p μƒμŠΉν•œ 상황. 이번 달 μˆ˜μΉ˜κ°€ 4.5~4.6% μˆ˜μ€€μœΌλ‘œ λ°œν‘œλ  경우, μΈν”Œλ ˆμ΄μ…˜λ³΄λ‹€λŠ” μ‹€μ—…λ₯ μ— μ£Όλͺ©ν•˜κ³  μ±„κΆŒ λ‘±ν¬μ§€μ…˜μ— μ§‘μ€‘ν•˜κ³ μž 함
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https://substack.com/@traderinkorea/note/c-236437527?r=3dkro&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
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전일 μ•Όκ°„ μ½”μŠ€ν”Ό -3.15% 784.65pt둜 λ§ˆκ°ν•˜μ˜€μŒ 였늘 μ‹œκ°€κ°€ 전일 μ•Όκ°„ μ’…κ°€ κ·Όμ²˜μ—μ„œ ν˜•μ„±λœλ‹€λ©΄ μ§€λ‚œ 4μ›” λ¦¬λ²„λ ˆμ΄μ…˜λ°μ΄ 이후 μƒμŠΉ λž λ¦¬μ— κ°€μž₯ μ€‘μš”ν•œ 지지선인 50MAλ₯Ό ν•˜νšŒν•˜κ²Œ 됨 ν–₯ν›„ 50MAλ₯Ό ν•˜νšŒν•˜λŠ” 가격
전일 μ•Όκ°„ μ½”μŠ€ν”Ό -3.15% 784.65pt둜 λ§ˆκ°ν•˜μ˜€μŒ 였늘 μ‹œκ°€κ°€ 전일 μ•Όκ°„ μ’…κ°€ κ·Όμ²˜μ—μ„œ ν˜•μ„±λœλ‹€λ©΄ μ§€λ‚œ 4μ›” λ¦¬λ²„λ ˆμ΄μ…˜λ°μ΄ 이후 μƒμŠΉ λž λ¦¬μ— κ°€μž₯ μ€‘μš”ν•œ 지지선인 50MAλ₯Ό ν•˜νšŒν•˜κ²Œ 됨 ν–₯ν›„ 50MAλ₯Ό ν•˜νšŒν•˜λŠ” 가격 쑰정이 λ‚˜νƒ€λ‚ μ§€λΌλ„ 지지선을 처음 μ΄νƒˆν•˜λŠ” κ²½μš°μ—λŠ” λ°˜λ“œμ‹œ λ°λ“œμΊ£ λ°”μš΄μŠ€λ₯Ό μ£ΌκΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ— λ“€λ ˆμ΄μ…˜μ΄ 짧은 νŠΈλ ˆμ΄λ”λΌλ©΄ μ˜€λŠ˜μ€ 맀수 자리λ₯Ό 봐봄직함 λΉ„μ€‘μ‘°μ ˆμ„ ν•˜κ³  싢은 쀑μž₯κΈ° νˆ¬μžμžλž˜λ„ 였늘 λΉ„μ€‘μ‘°μ ˆμ„ ν•œλ‹€λ©΄ λ°”λ‹₯에 μ§€μ§€λŠ” λͺ¨μŠ΅μ΄ 될 수 μžˆμ–΄μ„œ λ‹€μŒμ£Ό 쀑에 λ°˜λ“± λ‚˜μ˜€λŠ” μžλ¦¬μ—μ„œ λŒ€μ‘ν•˜λŠ”κ²Œ μœ λ¦¬ν•  κ²ƒμœΌλ‘œ λ³΄μž„
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이번 κ°•μ„Έμž₯μ—μ„œ μ½”μŠ€ν”Ό μ§€μˆ˜ 레벨 μ—… 이후 λ‹€μŒ μƒμŠΉ μ „ μ‘°μ • 기간을 μ‚΄νŽ΄λ³΄λ©΄ 3200pt 도달 ν›„ 이전 고점 κ°±μ‹ κΉŒμ§€ 40일 4200pt 도달 ν›„ 이전 고점 κ°±μ‹ κΉŒμ§€ 2달 ν˜„μž¬ 2μ›” 26일 6300pt 이후 μ‘°μ • 보름째 지
이번 κ°•μ„Έμž₯μ—μ„œ μ½”μŠ€ν”Ό μ§€μˆ˜ 레벨 μ—… 이후 λ‹€μŒ μƒμŠΉ μ „ μ‘°μ • 기간을 μ‚΄νŽ΄λ³΄λ©΄ 3200pt 도달 ν›„ 이전 고점 κ°±μ‹ κΉŒμ§€ 40일 4200pt 도달 ν›„ 이전 고점 κ°±μ‹ κΉŒμ§€ 2달 ν˜„μž¬ 2μ›” 26일 6300pt 이후 μ‘°μ • 보름째 μ§€μ†λ˜κ³  있음 κ°•μ„Έμž₯이 계속 μ§€μ†λœλ‹€κ³  κ°€μ •ν•˜λ©΄ μ½”μŠ€ν”ΌλŠ” 4μ›” μ€‘μœΌλ‘œ 고점을 재차 κ²½μ‹ ν•  κ°€λŠ₯성이 λ†’μŒ μœ„μ˜ μ°¨νŠΈλŠ” 2000년도 이후 μ½”μŠ€ν”Ό 월별 κ³„μ ˆμ„± 차트인데 μ½”μŠ€ν”ΌλŠ” μ—­μ‚¬μ μœΌλ‘œ 4μ›”κ³Ό 11월에 κ°•ν–ˆκΈ°μ— 이번 4μ›” 전고점 돌파λ₯Ό κΈ°λŒ€ν•˜κ³  있음
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ν•œνŽΈ 금리 μ‹œμž₯은, 1. SOFR–FFR μŠ€ν”„λ ˆλ“œ 큰 λ³€ν™” μ—†μŒ. 단기 μžκΈˆμ‹œμž₯ 슀트레슀 μž„λ°• μ‹ ν˜Έ 아직 μ•ˆ λ³΄μž„ 2. 30λ…„ μŠ€μ™‘ μŠ€ν”„λ ˆλ“œ μ „μŸ 발발 이후 계속 급락 쀑. μ±„κΆŒμ‹œμž₯ 슀트레슀 λ³΄μ—¬μ£ΌλŠ” λͺ…ν™•ν•œ μ‹ ν˜Έ 3. 30λ…„ 금리 μ˜΅μ…˜ λ‚΄μž¬λ³€λ™μ„±λ„ μƒμŠΉν–ˆμ§€λ§Œ 아직 극단적 μˆ˜μ€€μ€ μ•„λ‹˜ μœ κ°€λŠ” λ‹¨κΈ°μ μœΌλ‘œ 되돌림 κ°€λŠ₯μ„± μ—΄μ–΄λ‘μ§€λ§Œ μž₯κΈ°λ¬Ό λ―Έ κ΅­μ±„λŠ” μ—¬μ „νžˆ μ‘°μ‹¬μŠ€λŸ¬μ›€
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WTI λ‚΄μž¬λ³€λ™μ„± μ½”λ‘œλ‚˜ μ‹œκΈ° 고점 μˆ˜μ€€κΉŒμ§€ μƒμŠΉν•˜λ©°, 였늘 μ•„μΉ¨μ—λ§Œ μ•½ 30포인트 κΈ‰λ“± μ•„μ‹œμ•„μž₯μ—μ„œ νŒ¨λ‹‰μ„± μ›€μ§μž„ λ‚˜μ˜€λ©΄ λ‰΄μš•μž₯μ—μ„œλŠ” 되돌림 λ‚˜μ˜¬ κ°€λŠ₯성이 있음
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https://substack.com/@traderinkorea/note/c-226519131?r=3dkro&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
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