LUTTI88

✅💯BTC Macro outlook💯✅ This chart is a more macro oriented chart, but be aware that a big recession is coming and that it'll take months if not years to shake out inflation enough to make high risk assets enticing again. We can have big rallies, but the end game is for the markets to go to extreme lows. One blockchain metric that doesn't have enough attention is the transactions in loss metric. It just counts how many BTC is being transferred, bought or sold at a loss, and there tends to be a critical mass that calls for the bottom to be in, it could be 45% - 60% (2018 and 2020) or it could be 85% - 93% (First 2 bull runs), BTC currently sits a tiny bit under 30%. I won't take anything below the 45% UTXO ratio to be a strong bottom signal. So we're still a very long way from actually hitting it.

✅💯Potential Outlooks💯✅ What will happen now? The markets currently stand to decide if they will direct itself into a bull market, or deflationary bear market or an inflationary bear market, each bring different trading and investing strategies, and you can't have more than one consensus at a time. a) Conditions for a bull market: 1) The Fed does a 180, and drops interest rates 2) Fed resumes QE. 3) Inflation is under control. If this happens then you can go into all the high risk assets you want. b) Condition for an inflationary bear market • The fed pauses or slows down interest rates. If this happens, then you'll see a short lived rally across the board then a more downwards trending: You would want to avoid or short: 1) Tech Stocks 2) Crypto 3) Cyclical stocks (Amazon, Tesla, Travel, Nike, Hotels) 4) Communication services (Google, Tesla) You want to be in: 1) Energy (Gas foremost) 2) Metals (Silver, Gold, Steel, Copper) 3) Consumer defensives (Packaged foods, non-alcoholic beverages) c) Conditions for a deflationary bear market • It's inevitable, but it seems we may not be in one yet. I'd give 3 months max before we enter one. The triggers would be increased rate hikes (If markets rally before the decision), job losses, bad stock earnings. You would want to avoid or short: 1) Tech Stocks 2) Crypto 3) Cyclical stocks (Amazon, Tesla, Travel, Nike, Hotels) 4) Communication services (Google, Meta) 5) Metals (Silver, Gold, Steel, Copper) 6) Energy (Oil foremost) You want to be in: 1) Healthcare (Drug Manufacturers, Medical Devices) 2) Consumer Defensives (Alcohol, Tobacco, Household & Personal Products) 3) Consumer Cyclical (Only Restaurants)

✅💯Important Notes💯✅ The markets are currently sitting in a confused state and money hasn't found a place to roost considering the uncertainty economic conditions and the Fed's stance in general. The telltale sign is the very muted response to the Fed announcing that they're looking to raise 50 points in December, which is very bullish as it should calm the fears of uncertainty and allow room for a rally.

✅💯Important Events 💯✅ I polished a chart for you guys, it's my personal macro support/resistance chart. All plotted levels supports are big time frame structures. I added in the relevant events of the week and what I expect of each, macro supports aren't super precise because they develop through months/years. So prices oscillate and tangle with them . So use them as a solid reference more than for precision trading.