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❗ Gold set to break extend gains toward $2,378 assuming a non-disastrous US inflation report The big event of the week is here – US inflation, and Gold will move significantly. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tends to have more impact than Nonfarm Payrolls, as the Federal Reserve focuses on price rises. For the precious metal, the reaction is simple: higher inflation is bearish, and lower inflation is bullish. The most important data point is the Core CPI MoM, which is set to have risen by 0.3% in April, one-tenth lower than in previous months.  Core CPI YoY is set to stand at 3.6%, lower than 3.8% recorded last time. I think that if CPI figures merely hit expectations, it would be enough to trigger a downfall in US yields, and a rise in Gold. Markets remain wary of high inflation after Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeated his stance about remaining patient when it comes to cutting rates. Lower figures than last month would provide hope of an earlier rate cut. Gold has been trading higher, setting higher highs and higher lows. Resistance awaits at $2,378, which is followed by $2,401. Weak support is at $2,353, with a stronger one at $2,332, which was a recent low point and where the 50 and 200 4h-SMAs hit the price. The next line is $2,303.

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❗ US Crude Oil posts a Bearish Outside Daily Candle Although US Crude Oil posted initial gains on Friday, sellers returned at $79.93. Follow-through downward momentum resulted in a Bearish Outside Candle being posted on the daily chart. This formation is negative for sentiment. The daily chart highlights the commodity moving lower within the BC leg of a large Crab formation. The next downside support is the 88.6% pullback of the last rally. This is located at $69.95. The intraday chart highlights Oil stalling close to the projected AB barrier from a Crab formation at $77.71. Resistance is located at $78.31. Conclusion: I can see no indication of a change in trend. Intraday resistance is located at $78.31. The first target is the completion of the Crab formation at $74.96. Resistance: $78.31 (intraday), $79.93 (swing high), $112 (Bat) Support: $76.96 (swing low), $74.96 (Crab), $69.85 (88.6%)

❗ Gold set to advance toward $2,378 as investors rethink inflation fears The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index showed an increase in inflation expectations – and that eventually had the upper hand. Concerns about rising prices boosted yields late on Friday. Yieldless Gold fell. But the UoM data is only a survey – and now comes the real thing. Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is left, right and center for markets, and it could be lower than in previous months. Headline CPI might retreat with oil prices, while other figures such as housing could also cool down. Hopes for lower inflation data could push yields back down, giving a boost to Gold. The precious metal also gets support from ongoing hostilities in the Middle East. Israel and Hamas seem far from a deal, which means there is a risk of a regional escalation.  XAU/USD finds some support at $2,353, which is worked as resistance in late April. It is followed by $2,333 and $2,303. Resistance is at the recent high of $2,378, followed by $2,401 and $2,401. The 50 and 200 4h-SMAs are trending higher, adding to the bullish case.

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