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Hello SuperTraders ☄️
Time to refresh our views on this new market momentum. Currently the price of XAUUSD is shifting towards a continuation bearish stance but you might be just wondering why suddenly? 🤔
Well, don't worry. Quite a number of traders may be assuming that its just bearish because of the Fed interest rate hawkish tone (but this is only the partial factor).
For now we have come out with a few hypothesis on the current bear catalyst:
⚠️ Israel and Lebanon are meeting in Washington for a ceasefire agreement - possible war premium reduction (GOLD BEAR) unless the talks fail. Timeline 23-25 June
⚠️Core PCE data will be released on Thursday - main driver as Fed is watching natural inflation levels without the interference of oil. Since oil price is dropping, and the inflation from oil supply shock has not spillover, the Fed is watching natural inflation levels. If it remains high - Fed will not hesitate to hike rate since oil is not an excuse for true inflation.
There are other factors in between but looks like the supply is holding up. So the bears will possibly remain in power until Thursday until the data and talk is over. It also looks like the chart is hunting bigger timeframe key levels for now, so be patient to wait for the right areas to take a trade.
Today we have the following (GMT+8):
✔️ ADP Employment Weekly 8.15PM
✔️ S&P Global Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 9.45PM
We will talk more in TikTok live today. See you guys at 7PM (GMT+8)
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Tease. Just a small tease folks. 😝. One of the indicators built for our Skool community. It is called = The Invitation Zone. We built this framework based on one of our proprietary strategy. And we took this trade purely based on the indicator - wanted to stress test it and see how accurate it plays out.
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GOOD EVENING SUPERTRADERS ☄️
A new week for trading the markets. We hope you are ready for another week of great learning and improvement in your consistency 🤨📈
So when we are starting the week to trade -
if you are getting excited to click the BUYS or SELLS on the quickest opportunity you can see on the charts - then you are doing it WRONG😃 The first thing to do is to understand what is the Narrative in the market for the week. This week we have Core PCE and GDP on Thursday - which is the main highlight based on the recent Hawkish development by the FED. In between that we have no major economic calendar events and hence the possible drivers are geopolitical developments between US and Iran as the fragility of the ceasefire has increased, and the upcoming consensus of the smaller economic calendar events. Today we have no major events but we could see sentiments developing later (GMT+8): ✔️ Fed Waller Speech 9.00PM ✔️ ECB Lagarde Speech 9.00PM and 11.25PM 💠 US - Iran talks in Switzerland Day 2 Based on these events and the upcoming consensus, we think that a retracement upwards is going to be possible first if the updates favour gold. Then towards Thursday we might have arrived at a key supply area to assess the next intention based on the Core PCE data. So let the volume be there, wait for the right thing that you are waiting for to happen and use confirmation to your advantage 😎⚡️ All the best SuperTraders! See you tomorrow in our TikTok Live 🔻
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See you in 10mins. Live trading on ZOOM.
Link can be found in SKOOL calendar folks!
https://www.skool.com/supertraders
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Good Evening SuperTraders ☄️
Mapping went on as we planned yesterday but let's not get stuck to the glory day and be overconfident 🤨
What happened in FOMC yesterday ❓
⚠️ Yesterday's FOMC under new Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish shock: the dot plot median flipped from implying a rate
cut to a rate hike by year-end (median 2026 rose to 3.8% from 3.4%).
So right now overall bearish pressure will be the underlying factor in the market unless we have a bullish catalyst.
GEOPLOTICS UPDATE ❓
In terms of geopolitics, Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian digitally signed a Memorandum of Understanding today. ✍️
The deal mandates:
🟡Free passage through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days
🟡Removal of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports
🟡Lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports
🟡60-day window to negotiate the nuclear file
So right now we have FOMC hawk and GEOPOLITICAL relief.
Tonight we have the following (GMT+8):
✔️ Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 8.30PM
✔️ Unemployment Claims 8.30PM
The consensus is mixed but there is a potential for bearish pressure to kick in from the Philly Fed data. Since tomorrow is also a bank holiday for China and the US, we expect price movement to be settling and not too intense today.
So use technical analysis to your advantage for today and don't be too biased. Follow the price action 💪
All the best for today SuperTraders!
See you in TikTok Live at 7PM today 😎
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As we spoke about in TikTok Live today 🫣 Congratulations if any of you followed the plan.
For those who did not trade FOMC, the most important thing is to learn how we arrived towards the direction and zone 😁
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See you in 10mins. Live trading on ZOOM.
Link can be found in SKOOL calendar folks!
https://www.skool.com/supertraders
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Hello SuperTraders ☄️
We don't have a clear movement in XAUUSD yet for now. It's all about waiting for price action to properly develop for now!
As we all know, tonight after the US Session, we will be anticipating volume coming in slowly for FOMC interest rate, the dot plot and Kevin Warsh's first press conference.
Before that we have the following (GMT+8):
✅ Retail Sales 8.30PM
✅ Trump Speaks 9.30PM
The consensus for retail sales is unchanged while core retail sales is showing a possible slight reduction. Based on this we still think there is a possible bullish push ahead unless other factors interfere.
So for now, let's continue monitoring and we will assess as price action develops.
We will explain the key levels in TikTok live at 7PM.
So see you there for the mapping discussions ⚡️
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🎉 Yay!! The first 60 founding spots are full - in less than a week! Our founding circle is complete. 🙌
What a week it's been. Together we've already:
✅ Run our first onboarding
✅ Traded live - and we've all been winning
✅ Shared real inputs, learning and wins with the community and coaches
And we're only getting started.
The next 100 opens today.
🔴 $49/month - before the rate rises to $99/month
🔒 As always, whatever price you join at is the price you keep, for as long as you stay.
If you're up for it - or you have friends or family who'd love this - you're warmly welcome to join us:
👉 skool.com/supertraders
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Wishing all our Muslim community members a meaningful and blessed Awal Muharram 🌙
Trade with patience, manage with discipline, and trust the process. May 1448H be a year of consistency, growth, and barakah in your trading journey. ☄️
And for the rest, hope you have a good holiday, a good rest and great moments with your family and friends 😁
We will share our market insights later. Stay tuned ☄️💪
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Hi everyone! It has been an amazing start at Skool. And we have the last 5 spots available before the new price takes effect. If you're up for it, please don't miss this chance.
https://www.skool.com/supertraders ✌🏻
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