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Channel Posts
Oura IPO | Follow-up: the market disagrees with us
Our Oura breakdown built a fair-value case around $13-16B using Garmin, Peloton, and hardware multiples. What we missed: Polymarket runs an active market on Oura's IPO closing cap, and it's pricing something very different.
74% odds the close lands above $17.5B. 50% odds alone on $20B+. Only 17% odds of closing below $15B, which is where our comps-based case actually sits.
Both can't be right. The comps say hardware economics cap the multiple. The crowd is betting the IPO pops past it anyway. Worth watching which one moves once the S-1 is public.
Source: polymarket.com/event/oura-ipo-closing-market-cap
| 2 |  Oura's $16B IPO: the math the roadshow won't lead with
Targeting a September listing at $16B+, up 47% from last year's Series E. Revenue is genuinely doubling year over year. But ~80% of it is still hardware, not subscription.
Run the multiples on ~$2B 2026 revenue: Peloton's multiple = $2B. A typical hardware multiple = $6B. Even Garmin's best-in-class multiple = ~$13B. The ask is $16B, above the best comp in the category.
A class action filed August 21 challenges the sleep-accuracy claims the premium multiple depends on. And Oura hasn't shown up on Hiive's secondary supply list once in 8 weeks, sellers seem to be waiting for the IPO pop rather than transacting now.
Jawbone, Fitbit, Peloton all followed this exact pattern before: subscription story, hardware P&L, hardware multiple in the end.
Full breakdown β LinkedIn/X today. | 38 |
| 3 |  Oura's $16B IPO: the math the roadshow won't lead with
Targeting a September listing at $16B+, up 47% from last year's Series E. Revenue is genuinely doubling year over year. But ~80% of it is still hardware, not subscription.
Run the multiples on ~$2B 2026 revenue: Peloton's multiple = $2B. A typical hardware multiple = $6B. Even Garmin's best-in-class multiple = ~$13B. The ask is $16B, above the best comp in the category.
A class action filed August 21 challenges the sleep-accuracy claims the premium multiple depends on. And Oura hasn't shown up on Hiive's secondary supply list once in 8 weeks, sellers seem to be waiting for the IPO pop rather than transacting now.
Jawbone, Fitbit, Peloton all followed this exact pattern before: subscription story, hardware P&L, hardware multiple in the end.
Full breakdown β LinkedIn/X today. | 1 |
| 4 | No text... | 20 |
| 5 | Anthropic β Polymarket-implied PPS
Valuation Odds PPS x Entry
---------------- ----- ------- -------
$800B (downside) 9% $584 0.82x
$965B (Series H) - $704.51 1.00x
$1.25T ~100% $913 1.29x
$1.50T 93% $1,095 1.55x
$1.75T 87% $1,278 1.80x
$2.00T 71% $1,460 2.06x
$2.50T 47% $1,825 2.58x
$3.00T 29% $2,190 3.09x | 5 |
| 6 | Anthropic β Polymarket-implied PPS
Valuation Odds PPS x Entry
---------------- ----- ------- -------
$800B (downside) 9% $584 0.82x
$965B (Series H) - $704.51 1.00x
$1.25T ~100% $913 1.29x
$1.50T 93% $1,095 1.55x
$1.75T 87% $1,278 1.80x
$2.00T 71% $1,460 2.06x
$2.50T 47% $1,825 2.58x
$3.00T 29% $2,190 3.09x | 1 |
| 7 |  Stripe Γ OpenRouter | Aug 20 Analysis Update
π LinkedIn read: Plumbing. Priced.
Stripe's $8B acquisition of OpenRouter: one dominant verdict, one coherent data story. Watchlist-only framing β not a buy signal. Fact-checked against Ga^3in Portfolio Monitoring before publishing. | 95 |
| 8 |  Stripe just agreed to pay $8B for OpenRouter: 57x trailing revenue, a 5.4x markup on its own $1.3B round from 90 days ago.
We track Stripe and Vercel on our own fair-value marks, and neither has entry margin at today's Hiive asks. Full breakdown, the price reconstruction, and why we're not chasing it: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7496252178198646784/ | 81 |
| 9 |  Same chart. Different ticker.
SpaceX's nine-stage lockup started unlocking Aug 6. It runs on the same mechanic crypto traders call vesting: shares held back, released on a schedule, sold into whatever demand happens to be standing there that day.
The equity version just has bigger numbers. A token typically unlocks over months. SpaceX's ladder releases 10.96B shares over ten, in nine separate rungs, the last one landing next June.
Traders have priced this exact structure before. They just called it something else. | 96 |
| 10 |  Down 19% since the Aug 6 unlock. Index funds bought 14% of the float in June and July and moved the price 67%, a 5x multiplier. Apply it to this week's 3.8% sell-through and you get -19% exactly. The next forced buyer, the S&P 500, can't step in until ~Sep 2027, three months after the unlock ladder finishes. | 67 |
| 11 |  SpaceX is down 19% since its Aug 6 share unlock, and the drop isn't random.
In June and July, index funds bought 14% of the float when Russell, MSCI and QQQ added the stock. The price moved 67%. That's a multiplier of 5: every 1% of the float that trades, the stock moves roughly 5%.
Apply it to this week's unlock. The market is pricing about 3.8% sell-through of the new shares. 5 times 3.8 is 19. That's the exact move.
The ladder isn't done. It runs through June 2027 in nine stages, opening hard and cliffing at the end. The next scheduled buyer, the S&P 500, can't step in until SpaceX posts four straight profitable quarters, likely around September 2027, three months after the last shares unlock.
Supply has a calendar. So does the demand that eventually shows up for it. | 60 |
| 12 | Supply is calendared. Demand waits. | 4 |
| 13 | Supply is calendared. Demand waits its turn.
Full breakdown: 5 cards in this channel. | 4 |
| 14 |  Supply is calendared. Demand waits its turn.
Full breakdown: 5 cards in this channel. | 3 |
| 15 |  Supply is calendared. So is the demand that follows it.
Follow-up to our Aug 5 lockup note (t.me/web3deals/930) and the Aug 4 earnings beat (t.me/web3deals/929): the -19% since Aug 6 isn't noise, it's a formula. Full 5-part breakdown in the channel today. | 6 |
| 16 | Cliffs. Cadence. Overhang. A dated seller's clock isn't a conviction signal.
Full analysis: 5-part model card series in our Saved Messages (link in bio). | 7 |
| 17 | SpaceX Unlock Β· A Tokenomics Parallel
Cliffs. Cadence. Overhang.
A dated seller's clock isn't a conviction signal. | 1 |
| 18 | π Daily Fundraising β August 05, 2026
Market: β²
Today's Total: $972.1M (10 deals)
β’ Crypto β $400.0M (Undisclosed, Equity) | π
β’ Augustus β $180.0M (Undisclosed, Equity) | π
β’ Alpaca β $135.0M (Undisclosed, Equity) | π
β’ Markets EDX β $76.0M (Undisclosed, Equity) | π
β’ Ask Venice β $65.0M (Undisclosed, Equity) | π
β’ World β $52.5M (Undisclosed, Equity) | π
β’ Yellow Card β $40.0M (Strategic, Equity) | π
β’ Investi Fi β $20.0M (Strategic, Equity) | π
β’ MAGNE.AI β $2.6M (Strategic, Equity) | π
β’ Yooldo β $1.0M (Strategic, Equity) | π
πΌ Ga^3in Ventures | @web3deals | 25 |
| 19 |  Same chart. Different ticker.
SpaceX's 9-stage lockup opening this week is the same mechanic crypto's been running for years: withheld supply, released on a clock, dumped into whatever demand shows up. Cliffs, cadence, overhang β Wall Street just gave it a suit and a ticker. | 21 |
| 20 |  SpaceX's first quarter as a public company beat across every line: $7.81B revenue vs $6.93B expected (+92% y/y), a loss of just $0.09/share vs $0.26 expected.
The number that matters more than the headline: Starlink is profitable at a ~39% operating margin, on the way to the low-60s target we modeled for FY28. The swing factor is ARPU, flat at $66/month and down from $85 a year ago.
AI spending was enormous: $15.83B of capex in a single quarter. Revenue from that segment is real and beat estimates too, but the return on that spend is still an open question.
Two trading days from now, 911.5M shares become eligible for sale as the first lock-up window opens. Expect volatility from that regardless of how good the quarter was.
We hold the position. Full model-vs-print breakdown in today's stories. | 67 |
