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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD lacks a clear directional bias amid stimulus, covid
• Gold in a bull-bear tug-of-war starting out the Fed week.
• New covid strain fears and stimulus worries keep gold in limbo.
• Technical picture appears mixed in the near-term.
Despite ending the week in the green, Gold (XAU/USD) bulls remained unconvinced around $1850, thanks to the renewed concerns over the passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal in the US Congress. President Joe Biden’s stimulus boost did offer some signs of the life for the inflation-hedge gold last week, as the price reached nine-day highs at $1875, although uncertainty about whether Biden’s stimulus will seek the Bipartisan support knocked-off the rates below $1850 before recapturing the latter into the weekly closing. Gold found some support from rising US inflation expectations and broad-based US dollar weakness amid stimulus hopes.
Stepping into the Fed week, gold continues to waver in a familiar range while defending the $1850 level. Gold buyers remain hopeful amid intensifying concerns over the new covid strain detected in the UK, as it spreads globally and is seen as highly infectious and deadlier than the original one. Further, skepticism about the vaccine rollout combined with new covid strain-backed global economic recovery concerns could also keep the downside limited in the metal.
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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD needs acceptance above 200-DMA on Biden’s Inauguration Day
• Gold edges higher as Yellen backs Biden’s stimulus plan.
• Dollar’s weakness and covid concerns also boost gold.
• Acceptance above 200-DMA is critical for XAU/USD.
Gold (XAU/USD) settled higher around $1840 on Tuesday, as the US dollar remained on the back foot amid prospects of additional stimulus. US Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen argued in favor of a large stimulus in her testimony before the Senate, boosting stocks alongside the market mood. The risk-on environment dented the US dollar’s safe-haven appeal. The weakness in the US Treasury yields also benefited the non-yielding gold.
On Wednesday, Joe Biden will take the Presidential office and his inaugural speech will be closely eyed for fresh hints on the fiscal stimulus and the next direction in gold. In the meantime, the yellow metal will continue to cheer the calls for more fiscal spending under the Biden administration and growing covid cases in the US. However, the risk-on rally in global stocks could likely cap the upside in the metal.
Forex Today: Dollar holds onto gains, shrugging off upbeat Chinese GDP, vaccine news eyed
Here is what you need to know on Monday, January 18:
Markets are mixed on "Blue Monday" with the dollar clinging to gains related to risk aversion, while upbeat Chinese growth partially offsets the gloom. The UK and the US are ramping up their vaccination campaigns while tension is mounting ahead of President-elect Biden's inauguration. US markets are closed.
The greenback is holding onto its higher ground after disappointing US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims triggered a light-to-safety move at the end of last week. On the other hand, stocks are cheering China's Gross Domestic Product, which grew at an annualized pace of 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2020. The world's second-largest economy returned to pre-pandemic growth levels.
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EUR/USD has been changing hands under 1.21, as investors follow Italy's ongoing political crisis. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte's government is facing votes of confidence. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU Party chose centrist Armin Laschet as party leader, en route to the general elections in September. The European Central Bank's decision is awaited on Thursday.
GBP/USD is below 1.36, shrugging off the rapid expansion of Britain's vaccination campaign, which has already neared 6% of the population. Talks between the EU and the UK on post-Brexit arrangements for services are set to advance at a snail's pace.
The big event of the week is the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden on Wednesday. Investors are shrugging off fears of violence from supporters of outgoing President Donald Trump, and eyeing a flurry of Executive Orders from the incoming administration.
Biden will also attempt to pass his proposed $1.9 trillion relief package. Janet Yellen, the nominee for Treasury Secretary, is set to declare that dollar policy would be "market-oriented" potentially allowing the greenback to decline.
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve – and Yellen's successor – committed last week to highly accommodative policy.
See Powell may pummel the dollar after a trio of troubling figures boosts its safe-haven appeal
The Canadian dollar is on the back foot in response to media reports that the incoming Biden administration would cancel the Keystone XL pipeline. The Bank of Canada announces its decision on Wednesday.
Gold has been edging higher on expectations of both monetary and fiscal stimulus, recovering from the lows.
Cryptocurrencies have been trading on lower ground, with Bitcoin hovering around $35,000.
US traders are off on Monday due to Martin Luther King Day, prompting thin trading volume in the US session.
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