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#market_updates
π― Weakening U.S. dollar and safe-haven demand keep gold price elevated
The gold (XAU) price rose by 0.57% on Friday as the U.S. dollar continued to weaken after a strong 2-month rally.
πPossible effects for traders
XAUUSD had its first weekly gain in February due to a declining U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and solid safe-haven demand induced by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Although U.S. interest rates remain high and the prospects of rate cuts have been pushed later towards the summer, the gold price remains elevated due to heavy buying from central banks and strong risk-off flows. However, there is clear bearish pressure on all precious metals, so any rallies in gold may be hard to sustain. Firstly, comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have been hawkish lately, reducing investors' expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. Indeed, the market is currently pricing in only a 20% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in May. Secondly, rising demand for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is prompting investors to swap out holdings in gold-backed ETFs.
πΈ BTCUSD remains within a range, while Ethereum rises
The Bitcoin (BTC) price remains within a tight range as Ethereum (ETH) surges.
π Possible effects for traders
Last week, BTC traded within the 51,000β53,000 range. On 24 February, the asset broke below 51,000 but quickly recovered. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisationβETHβsurpassed 3,100. Overall, Bitcoin's dominance has decreased from 54.40% to 52.30% since 12 February. The decline suggests that while Bitcoin is trading within a narrow range, other cryptocurrencies are gaining in market capitalisation.
π EURUSD continues to rise, but the momentum has weakened
The euro (EUR) was essentially flat on Friday, even though U.S. dollar bulls closed their long positions after almost 2-month rally.
π Possible effects for traders
The general decline in EURUSD, which began in December last year, was primarily built on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would begin cutting rates later than previously expected. Now, traders have already pushed back their rate cut expectations substantially: the probability of a 25-basis point (bps) rate reduction in May is just under 20%. Furthermore, most policymakers at the last FOMC meeting expressed hawkish sentiment. The U.S. macroeconomic data will have to deteriorate quite noticeably for the Fed doves to be invigorated. However, some traders are waiting for the economic data to start worsening. 'I think starting with the February jobs data, which is due on 8 March, we're going to begin seeing a series of weaker U.S. economic data,' said Marc Chandler, the chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.
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