Jason Sen - Day Trade Ideas

US markets closed for Labor Day, but Asia/Europe are reacting to the US–Iran tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. With a further oil spike, inflation fears up, gold lower therefore, USD unchanged (as usual).

Fed speakers + Beige Book color this week can shift rate-hike probabilities before the Sept 15–16 FOMC. Any hawkish surprise = bond yields up, dollar bid, precious metals vulnerable.

07 September Gold XAUUSD Gold saw outsized & exaggerated moves in the last week of August & first week of September exactly as predicted. We initially made a new high at the start of the week & by the Friday close we had wiped out more than half of the pervious week's strong gains. We saw little movement in the morning ahead of the US NFP as predicted, and then Gold collapsed on strong jobs data, wiping out all of Thursday's (surprisingly strong) gains. HOWEVER by the close we were only down about $40 on the day. Last week the range was only $228 or 5%, from 4282 up to 4510, which was pretty normal and certainly nothing exceptional. However with daily ranges of up to 3% and a collapse on Tuesday followed by a complete recovery by Thursday and then another collapse on Friday, It was extremely volatile and very confusing with no overall direction.  So this starts the week with a confusing outlook as we wait for US CPI & PPI on Thursday & Friday.

All eyes on US CPI & PPI (Sept 10–11). Hot prints = higher odds of a Fed hike on Sept 15–16 → stronger USD, pressure on gold/silver, headwinds for stocks. Cool prints = hike bets fade, relief rally possible.

Emini S&P futures. Emini S&P SEPTEMBER futures longs at important support at 7635/7625 were triggered, with a good recovery from 7619 to 7691. Yesterday we beat resistance at 7710/7720 as predicted & the break above 7730 hut my next target of 7760, with a high for the day only 6 points above. We are in a longer term bull trend so further gains are always possible. Above 7765 today can retest Friday's high at 7780/7782. On a break higher this week look for 7795/7799, perhaps as far as 7815/7820. If we continue higher look for a retest of the all time high at 7833/7838. Minor support at 7715/7695 but a break below 7690 risks a slide to 7750/7740. . Emini Nasdaq futures. Emini Nasdaq SEPTEMBER hits the downside target & support at 29150/29050 with a low for the week here. Longs worked perfectly on the bounce to my target of 29540/570, with a high for the day almost exactly here. A break above 29600 can target 29800/810.  If we continue higher look for 29970/990.   On a retest of support at 29150/29050 we need stops below 28900. A break below 298900 is a short term sell signal & can initially target 28800/860. Below 28840 risks a slide to 28420/380. . Emini Dow Jones futures  Emini Dow Jones SEPTEMBER held 70 ticks above strong support at 52650/500 & beat minor resistance at 53200/250 to hit my next targets of 53530/570 & 53800/820. A high for the day exactly here.   On a break above 53870 look for 54000 then 54150 & 54300/330. First support at 53330/53280 but below 53100 risks a slide to towards strong support at 52650/500

JPMORGAN SEES 30K–70K JOBS AS MARKET SWEET SPOT JPMorgan sees 30,000–70,000 new U.S. jobs as the ideal range for upcoming payroll data. Stronger hiring could push bond yields higher and stocks lower by fueling spending and inflation. A sharp downside miss, however, could revive stagflation fears. Ahead of the Fed’s September 16 meeting, JPMorgan believes the upcoming CPI report will matter more than payrolls for markets.

03 September Emini S&P futures. Emini S&P SEPTEMBER futures longs at important support at 7635/7625 were triggered, with a good recovery from 7619 to 7691. We now have resistance at 7710/7720 but shorts could be risky & a break above 7730 can retarget 7745, perhaps as far as 7760. We are in a longer term bull trend so further gains are always possible. Above 7765 can retest Friday's high at 7780/7782. On a break higher this week look for 7795/7799, perhaps as far as 7815/7820. If we continue higher in to this week look for a retest of the all time high at 7833/7838. Longs on a retest of important support at 7635/7625 need stops below 7615. A break below 7615 is a short term sell signal & we can target 7570/7560. . Emini Nasdaq futures. Emini Nasdaq SEPTEMBER hits the downside target & support at 29150/29050 Longs are working on the recovery to 29253 as we target 29270 & 29410/430.  Above 29480 look for 29540/570  On a retest of support at 29150/29050 we need stops below 28900. A break below 298900 is a short term sell signal & can initially target 28800/860. Below 28840 risks a slide to 28420/380. . Emini Dow Jones futures  Emini Dow Jones SEPTEMBER held just 70 ticks above strong support at 52650/500. Longs need stops below 52350 if tested today. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 4 month trend line support at 52100/52000.   The bounce hit minor resistance at 53200/250.  A break above 53300 can target 53530/570. If we continue higher look for 53800/820.

Silver  XAGUSD Silver made a high for the day at first resistance at 6710/6730 (reversing from 6704) The move below 6645/6630 triggered the expected  slide to 6000/659, 6565/6560 & a buying opportunity at 6490/6460. However this did not hold & longs were stopped below 6410 as silver crashed as far as 6327 over night. Another huge downside move of almost $4. Silver looks more likely than Gold to be in a medium term bear trend at this stage. Silver report & trade ideas for today has been posted for subscribers

02 September Gold XAUUSD Gold broke important support at 4415/4400. In the Telegram group we saw the break hit 4390 & a bounce which held the 4405/4415 level (we reversed from 4406) so we jumped in to a short around 4395 targeting  4376/72 & 4363/4359. However Gold collapsed as far as 4326 & over night we have fallen to 4282. It's starting to look like Gold is holding a medium term bear trend after Warsh's speech on Friday. Today's report has been posted for subscribers

How we made big profits of 640 pips in 3 winning trades. Gold, silver & EURUSD. https://youtu.be/PLnetPLMjDo