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President Trump calls on the Fed to cut interest rates after the August jobs report nearly triples expectations. Trump also threatens to "stop trading with countries with which we have a deficit" if the Fed does not cut rates. The Fed "must get smart," Trump says.

The Fed is now expected to hike interest rates at their September 16th meeting after the August jobs report nearly tripled expectations. Market expectations for a September rate hike are surging, now up to a 53% chance.

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Gold at 4365 After my previous update, gold recovered from 4,380 and reached exactly 4,410 before falling sharply again. Gold is now trading around 4,465, with approximately 450 pips of profit currently running.

NFP data is negative for #gold prices

📊US JOBS REPORT: MARKET BRACES FOR SOFT HIRING All eyes on the August U.S. jobs report: 🔸Kalshi: +46K 🔸Consensus: +55K Prior: -23K 🔸Unemployment: 4.1% 🔸Bank forecasts range widely: 🔸Wells Fargo: +80K 🔸Deutsche: +65K 🔸Morgan Stanley: +65K 🔸JPMorgan: +50K 🔸BofA: +40K 🔸Goldman: +40K The key signal may be unemployment rather than NFP. A major downside surprise could move Fed expectations, but next week’s CPI/PPI may ultimately matter more for September police

Gold at 4,468 Support at 4460-65 and 4450-55,until hold above, Gold can test again 4510 and beyond So prefer to buy on support However break below 4450 will push for further correction towards 4430 and 4420.

With the Fed assessing whether the labor market remains near full employment, the combination of payroll growth, unemployment, participation and wages could shape the initial rates reaction—even if next week’s inflation data ultimately carries more weight for September policy.

The August U.S. jobs report is expected to show a modest recovery in hiring following July’s surprisingly weak reading, but economists remain cautious about the underlying strength of the labor market. NFP: +55K expected vs. -23K prior Private Payrolls: +40–50K Unemployment: 4.1% expected August payrolls could benefit from a rebound in government education jobs, while Haitian TPS expirations may create a 0–30K drag. Further payroll revisions remain a risk. With participation recently falling, the 4.1% unemployment rate may matter more than headline NFP. Fed focus: Jobs are key, but next week’s CPI/PPI will likely matter more for September policy. ANALYST VIEWS WELLS FARGO: JOBS GROWTH TO REBOUND IN AUGUST NFP: +80K expected Unemployment: 4.2% Wages: +0.3% MoM Wells Fargo expects August hiring to partially rebound from July’s weakness, with alternative indicators suggesting job growth has stabilized. Hiring plans are improving, job openings have leveled off and layoffs remain historically low. Unemployment is expected to edge up to 4.2%, while wage growth remains contained. Bottom line: Labor demand is soft but sufficient to support modest job growth and keep layoffs low. DEUTSCHE BANK: AUGUST JOBS SET FOR MODEST REBOUND NFP: +65K Private Payrolls: +25K Unemployment: 4.1% Wages: +0.4% MoM Deutsche Bank expects payrolls to rebound from July, mainly due to stronger state and local education hiring. Private-sector hiring should remain subdued, while wage growth rebounds. Unemployment is forecast at 4.1%, with some risk of 4.2%. Fed takeaway: Even a slight unemployment rise is unlikely to materially change its labor-market outlook. MORGAN STANLEY: JOBS TO REBOUND, UNEMPLOYMENT STEADY NFP: +65K Private Payrolls: +40K Unemployment: 4.1% Morgan Stanley expects modest hiring improvement in August, partly driven by a rebound in education jobs. Immigration policy changes could subtract around 15K jobs. Labor-force participation should partially recover, with unemployment holding at 4.1%. Outlook: Morgan Stanley still sees unemployment rising to 4.3% by year-end, though slower labor-force growth poses downside risk. JPMORGAN: SOFT AUGUST JOBS GROWTH AHEAD NFP: +50K Private Payrolls: +40K Unemployment: 4.1% JPMorgan expects subdued hiring in August, consistent with the recent 40–55K private-sector trend. Seasonal summer weakness and immigration-status changes could weigh on payrolls, while July’s education-job decline may see little rebound. Bottom line: Job growth remains historically soft, but a low hiring breakeven rate should keep the labor market relatively stable and unemployment near 4.1%. BOFA: WEAK JOBS, BUT LABOR MARKET STILL STABLE NFP: +40K Private Payrolls: +35K Unemployment: 4.1% BofA expects soft August hiring, weighed down by summer seasonality. Healthcare and education should lead gains, while construction remains supported by data-center demand. Unemployment should hold at 4.1%, though stronger labor-force participation could lift it to 4.2%. Fed takeaway: A weak print may have limited impact on September hike expectations, with August CPI likely more important. GOLDMAN SACHS: SOFT JOBS, UNEMPLOYMENT STEADY NFP: +40K Private Payrolls: +40K Unemployment: 4.1% Wages: +0.4% MoM Goldman Sachs expects subdued August job growth, citing weaker alternative data and a historical tendency for August payrolls to initially disappoint. Wage growth should rebound to 0.4%, helped by calendar effects. Bottom line: Unemployment is expected to remain stable at 4.1%, supported by steady continuing jobless claims. Across the forecasts, the common theme is weak but broadly stable labor demand. Wells Fargo is the most optimistic of the six at +80K, while BofA and Goldman Sachs sit at the low end at +40K. The bigger market signal may come from unemployment rather than payrolls. Most expect 4.1%, while Wells Fargo sees 4.2%.

BREAKING: President Trump says the US is striking Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz and warns Iran not to retaliate. Brent crude oil prices are nearing $95/barrel.

However,On the upside need to clear 4420 , level to resume uptrend

Gold at 4354 Bounce back from 4325, as mentioned in live stream Key support at 4320-25 is still intact

FED’S BARR: INFLATION REMAINS TOO HIGH FED’S BARR: Favors maintaining interest rates at current levels as long as there is confidence that inflation is continuing to moderate. FED’S BARR: If inflation fails to ease in the near term, the time may come to consider raising interest rates.

GLOBAL BOND YIELDS SOAR ON INFLATION FEARS Global bond yields surged as rising oil prices and U.S.-Iran tensions fueled inflation fears and rate-hike expectations. 🇺🇸U.S. 10-year: 4.792%, highest since January 2025 🇯🇵Japan 10-year: above 3%, 30-year high 🇩🇪Germany 10-year: 3.364%, highest since 2011 🇬🇧UK 10-year: 5.254%, highest since 2008 Markets now price a 65% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, with Brent crude above $92.

FED RATE HIKE ODDS SURGE Markets are now pricing in a 54% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, compared with a 45% chance of no change, following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks. Attention now turns to Friday’s August jobs report, which could play a crucial role in shaping September’s policy expectations. According to Bank of America (BofA), weaker-than-expected employment data could alter the current outlook. Otherwise, the prospect of a September rate hike appears increasingly likely.

Gold Market Update Gold at 4,425 As I clearly mentioned during today’s live stream, as long as gold remained below the 4460–65 resistance zone, further downside was expected. As anticipated, gold has declined, and I hope everyone is currently enjoying a good profit. Our view remains unchanged. As long as gold fails to reclaim 4450 and, more importantly, the 4460–65 resistance zone, the market is likely to remain under pressure. Key Support Levels at 4395–4400 and 4380 A sustained break below 4380 could trigger further selling pressure toward 4360, followed by 4340. Strategy remains unchanged, Sell at resistance and manage risk with discipline.

TRUMP VOWS TO “HIT IRAN HARD” AFTER ATTACK ON U.S. FORCES President Donald Trump vowed retaliation after Iran fired at least eight ballistic missiles at U.S. forces in Jordan, reportedly causing no significant damage. “We’re going to hit them hard. There will be a response,” Trump said. The attack followed U.S. strikes on IRGC launchers on Iran’s Larak Island. Trump also said sanctions are “kicking in really strongly,” while suggesting Tehran is eager for talks but questioning whether a deal can be reached.

📊 WARSH SPEECH PUTS SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE BACK IN PLAY Markets sharply repriced expectations for the September Fed decision following Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. The probability of the Fed holding rates fell from 71% before the speech to 50%, while expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike surged from 30% to 49%. Meanwhile, the probability of a rate cut remains virtually off the table at just 1%. Warsh’s strong focus on inflation has transformed the September policy decision into a near coin flip, with markets now closely watching incoming economic data and further Fed guidance.

🚨 WARSH: HAWKISH SIGNALS ON INFLATION • Inflation data do not indicate a meaningful improvement in the underlying trend. • The Fed’s 2% PCE inflation target remains firm and non-negotiable. • More work is needed if inflation is not moving toward 2% at a sufficiently rapid pace. Market Impact: Warsh’s remarks reinforce a cautious stance on monetary easing and could keep pressure on expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. This may remain supportive of the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, while potentially limiting upside in gold.