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«Time is the most important factor… not pattern or price» 🗝️: @finsightlys
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| Date | Subscriber Growth | Mentions | Channels | |
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Channel Posts
| 2 |  Yonga? | 182 |
| 3 |  😂😂😂 | 256 |
| 4 | ! | 402 |
| 5 | Shunchaki ulashgim keldi👨🏻💻 | 403 |
| 6 | Social media is FAKE
Please enjoy your real life! | 401 |
| 7 |  No text... | 369 |
| 8 |  No text... | 354 |
| 9 |  👨🏻💻⏳ | 336 |
| 10 |  No text... | 440 |
| 11 | +1 conc.pdf | 497 |
| 12 | Nima uchun NFP forecast xato chiqdi?
Bizning model +84K atrofidagi NFPni kutgan edi. Bunga ADP (+44K), tarixan juda past Initial Jobless Claims (199K), ISM Manufacturing (55.6) va ISM Services (54.1) kabi leading indikatorlar asos bo'lgan. Ushbu indikatorlarning kombinatsiyasi odatda payroll o'sishi bilan ijobiy korrelyatsiyaga ega.
Biroq hisobot e'lon qilinishi bilan muhim metodologik o'zgarish yuz berdi: iyun oyi NFP ko'rsatkichi 57K dan 20K gacha (-37K) qayta ko'rib chiqildi (revision). Bu shuni anglatadiki, prognoz tuzilgan paytda foydalanilgan tarixiy baza keyinchalik sezilarli darajada o'zgardi. Statistik nuqtai nazardan bu real-time dataset va revised dataset o'rtasidagi tafovutdir.
Bundan tashqari, iyul oyidagi -23K natija leading indikatorlar bilan mos kelmadi. Bu esa mehnat bozorida payroll ma'lumotlariga ta'sir qilgan qo'shimcha omillar (hukumat bandligi, BLS'ning Birth/Death modeli, benchmark revision yoki establishment survey tarkibidagi o'zgarishlar) rol o'ynagan bo'lishi mumkin. Yakuniy xulosa uchun BLS hisobotining batafsil tarkibini tahlil qilib natijalar va sabablar bilan bo'lishaman. | 480 |
| 13 |  Bu shaxsiy izlanishlar natijasida yeg'ilgan ma'lumotlar asosida qilingan tahlil, moliyaviy maslahat emas. | 359 |
| 14 | Mehnat bozori bo'yicha so'nggi indikatorlar bir-biriga zid signal bermoqda. ADP bandligi 44 minggacha pasaydi va JOLTS 7.359 mln.gacha tushdi lekin Initial Jobless Claims 199 ming darajasida qolyabdi hamda 4 haftalik o'rtacha 198.8 mingni tashkil etmoqda. Shu bilan birga ISM Manufacturing (55.6) va ISM Services (54.1) hali ham 50 dan yuqori bu esa kompaniyalar faoliyati kengayishda davom etayotganini bildiradi. Hozirgi ma'lumotlar mehnat bozorining keskin zaiflashayotganini emas balki nazorat ostida sekinlashayotganini ko'rsatmoqda va bu NFP uchun 80 mingga yaqin rezultatni support qiladi. | 353 |
| 15 | Chorshanba(05.08.26) kuni ISM Services PMI hisoboti chiqadi. AQSH iqtisodiyotining asosiy qismi xizmat koʻrsatishga tayangani uchun shu yangilik juma kungi NFP raqami qanchalik kuchli yoki zaif chiqishini yuqori aniqlik bilan koʻrsatib beradi | 387 |
| 16 |  Natija kutilganidan ham shok darajada bo'ldi. | 394 |
| 17 | PMI actual.pdf | 376 |
| 18 |  Nega aynan ISM Manufacturing PMI uchun berilgan prognoz 54.0 ekanligini fundamental isboti. | 397 |
| 19 | PMI 03.08.2026.pdf | 377 |
| 20 | Instagramda o’tirib «abi hayren» Juma pushkasini korp qoldim🤢 Kechdim Turtle soupdan | 409 |
