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📊 Weekly Market Analysis | Global Markets Update 🌍 Middle East: Renewed US-Iran tensions continue to keep markets on edge. While both sides have exchanged further strikes, hopes of renewed negotiations have helped ease fears of a wider conflict—for now. 🛢 Oil: Crude prices remain volatile as traders monitor developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Although prices have pulled back from recent highs, energy markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines. 🏦 Federal Reserve: The latest Fed minutes revealed policymakers remain divided on the path of interest rates. Rising oil prices have strengthened expectations that rates could stay higher for longer. 💵 US Dollar: The Dollar continues to fluctuate as investors weigh safe-haven demand against changing Fed expectations. Major currency pairs, including EUR/USD and GBP/USD, have recovered as market sentiment improved. 🇨🇭 CHF Benefits from Safe-Haven Demand. The Swiss Franc remained one of the strongest defensive currencies this week. USDCHF extended its decline after the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed growing disagreement among policymakers regarding the future path of interest rates. 🥇 Gold: Gold remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven demand, even as higher Treasury yields continue to limit stronger upside momentum. 📈 Stock Markets: European and US equity futures have rebounded as investors cautiously return to risk assets, while Asian markets delivered mixed performances. 📅 Today's Focus: Traders will be watching US Jobless Claims, speeches from central bank officials, and any new developments from the Middle East that could influence oil prices and overall market sentiment. 🔎 Read the full Weekly Market Analysis on our website and stay ahead of the markets! 📖📈

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🥇 Gold remains under pressure, moving closer to the key $4,000 level despite Dollar weakness. Investors have also seen a weaker Gold-USD correlation. 📊 In 2026, the US Dollar Index has averaged 0.45% volatility, while yesterday’s decline was 0.35%, or 78% of its average. Over the same period, Gold rose 0.98%, only 54% of its average volatility. The weaker correlation indicates potential weakness in Gold demand. 🏦 Rate hike expectations remain the main risk for Gold, with key support levels at $4,026 and $3,940. Investors continue to fear Gold may be trading slightly above its intrinsic value. All metals trade lower during this morning’s session. 📈 JPMorgan Chase continues to expect Gold to average around $4,300 in Q3 and reach $4,500 in Q4. However, many economists are revising their target price lower. 💻 Global tech stocks are selling off, led by pressure on Asian markets and Samsung’s sharp decline despite stronger earnings. 📱 Samsung reported stronger-than-expected preliminary Q2 2026 earnings, beating forecasts by 6% on continued AI memory chip demand. However, the results failed to impress shareholders given the scale of AI investment, while concerns over the durability of the AI boom sent the stock sharply lower. 🚀 Before today’s US market opens, SpaceX will be added to the NASDAQ. Since SpaceX’s IPO on June 12th, the stock has seen both up and down impulse waves. The price is currently at $160.00, as per the IPO. 📉 NASDAQ remains vulnerable, with traders watching support at $29,108 and $28,944, while SpaceX’s index inclusion may create short-term buying demand. 🛢️ Oil prices creep up during this morning’s Asian session due to a carrier being hit by a projectile near the Omani coast as it exited the Strait of Hormuz. 💱 The best performing currencies of the day were the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. The worst performing so far are the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.

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🥇 Gold declined after three consecutive days of gains as the US Dollar attempted to recover. 💵 The US Dollar Index remains supported above 100.00, limiting Gold’s appeal despite recent Dollar weakness. 📉 Weaker NFP data softened Dollar momentum, but markets still expect the Fed to remain more hawkish than other central banks. 🏦 According to the Chicago exchange, 42% of the market believes the Fed will hike on one occasion, while 35% believe it will hike more than once. 📊 Gold remains under short-term bearish pressure below $4,161, with downside targets at $4,144, $4,140, and $4,135. A break above $4,174 could shift Gold momentum higher towards $4,190–$4,202. 🇯🇵 Goldman Sachs raised its USDJPY forecast to 165, citing wide US-Japan rate differentials and renewed carry trade demand. ⚠️ USDJPY remains attractive to buyers, but traders should remain cautious of possible Japanese intervention and sharp volatility. 🛢️ Shipping in the Straits of Hormuz continues to flow despite some expected U-turns the week before. Crude Oil trades slightly lower on Monday at $68.70. 💱 The US Dollar is the best-performing currency of the day, followed by the Australian Dollar. The worst performers are the JPY and CHF, which remain under pressure from the carry trade. 🌍 Global indices are attempting to regain momentum after retracing lower this morning. Today’s US ISM Services PMI is likely to create higher volatility during the afternoon US session.

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📈 Stocks Rebound After Tech-Led Selloff Global stocks recovered as worries eased that the AI-driven rally had moved too far. European markets traded near record highs, while Asian equities bounced strongly, led by South Korea’s Kospi. 🤖 AI Stocks Still Under the Microscope The recent pullback showed that traders are becoming more selective with AI and chip-related stocks. The next earnings season will be key to confirm whether AI spending is translating into real profits. 💵 US Dollar Weakens After Jobs Data The dollar headed for its weakest week since April after softer US jobs data reduced expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. 🥇 Gold Extends Gains Gold rose for a third consecutive session, supported by dollar weakness and lower rate expectations, trading around $4,170 per ounce. 💴 USDJPY Remains a Key Risk The yen recovered slightly after touching a 40-year low near 162.84 against the dollar. Japan warned it remains ready to act, keeping intervention risk alive. 🇯🇵 Japan Faces Growing Pressure Yen weakness is increasing import costs and hurting businesses, with yen-linked bankruptcies rising. Japanese bond yields also moved higher as markets reacted to fiscal spending concerns. 🛢 Oil Holds Near $72 Brent crude stayed close to $72 as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased, easing immediate supply fears. However, Middle East headlines remain important. 🇪🇺🇺🇸 EU-US Trade Hits Record High EU-US goods trade reached a record €875 billion, but tariffs continue to pressure key sectors. Automotive exports were hit hard, while pharma and chemicals helped support the overall numbers. 👀 What Traders Should Watch Next AI earnings, Fed rate expectations, USDJPY intervention risk, gold’s reaction to the dollar, oil supply headlines, and sector pressure from tariff tensions.

📈 Stocks Rebound Global stocks recovered after the recent tech-led selloff, with investors regaining confidence in AI-related shares and broader risk assets. 💵 US Dollar Weakens The dollar remained under pressure after softer US jobs data reduced expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. 🥇 Gold Extends Gains Gold rose for a third consecutive session, supported by a weaker dollar and lower rate expectations. 💴 USDJPY in Focus The yen recovered slightly from 40-year lows, while Japan kept intervention risk alive with fresh warnings to currency markets. 🛢 Oil Holds Steady Brent crude traded near $72 as supply concerns eased, although Middle East headlines remain important for oil traders. 👀 What Traders Should Watch AI earnings, Fed expectations, USDJPY intervention risk, gold’s reaction to the dollar, and oil market developments. Full Article 👉

💱 The USDJPY falls 0.68% as the Japanese Federal Government again bolsters the currency through intervention. The USDJPY fell to a 10-day low. 📊 US NFP data is the main market focus, with the report due to be released earlier due to tomorrow’s US bank holiday. Stronger-than-expected jobs data could increase Fed hike expectations, while weaker data may pressure the Dollar lower. 💵 Markets expect NFP Employment Change to fall from 172,000 to 115,000, while unemployment is expected to remain at 4.3% and average earnings to rise 0.3%. Stronger-than-expected employment data could significantly increase the chances of a July rate hike. 🇪🇺 The Euro is under pressure as lower inflation and dovish ECB comments reduce expectations for further rate hikes. 🏦 According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, the risks are more broadly balanced than before. The governor of the bank of Greece told journalists that there is no need for a rate hike. Furthermore, the Governor of the Belgium Central Bank who is normally known to be a hawk also indicated “no rate hikes are needed”. 🇬🇧 The British Pound is finding support, helped by Euro weakness and rising expectations that the BoE may hike later in 2026. 🇯🇵 Japan confirms its tax revenue rose to another record in the latest fiscal year. Earlier in the day the Yen rose slightly higher on speculation that Japan would bolster the currency without warning, which eventually took place. 🛢️ Crude Oil falls to a new quarterly low and is close to trading at the pre-war price from back in February. Crude Oil currently trading below $67.90 per barrel.

Join us live as we break down the latest US Non-Farm Payrolls report and what it could mean for the markets.📊 As one of the most closely watched economic releases, NFP can significantly influence interest rate expectations, US Dollar momentum, Gold volatility, and overall market sentiment. 📈 We’ll analyse the data release in real time, focusing on Gold’s current market structure and whether the latest jobs figures could confirm further downside pressure.💪🏻 🎯 This session will focus primarily on technical analysis, including key support and resistance levels, momentum signals, and potential trading scenarios before and after the NFP release. ⚡️ Will NFP confirm Gold’s decline? 👀 Watch the full analysis live with HFM.

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📊 The US Dollar initially declined despite strong JOLTS data, with job openings beating expectations for the sixth consecutive month at 7.59 million. 💵 The Dollar is now attempting to recover, supported by the delayed impact of strong employment data and expectations for more key US releases today. 🎙️ Investors will now turn their attention to Kevin Wash’s speech this afternoon at the ECB Forum in Portugal. Markets expect the Fed Chairman to provide little guidance. However, his tone and the topic he concentrates on will impact how the market expects the interest rates path to unfold. ⚠️ ADP Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing Prices are key risks, as stronger-than-expected readings could provide further support for the US Dollar. 💱 USD/JPY may be overbought near 163.00, with intervention risk increasing and technical indicators suggesting the Japanese Yen may be oversold. 🪙 Last night, Donald Trump’s earnings were made public, revealing that his cryptocurrency-related income reached an estimated $1.4 billion in 2025. Notably, his earnings from crypto exceeded the income generated from his real estate and hotel businesses. 🥇 Gold again declines back towards the $3950 support level as the US Dollar rises and investors expect a hawkish tone from this afternoon’s Fed chairman speech. Technical indicators point towards Gold potentially falling to the $3950 psychological price. ⚙️ All metals are trading lower on Wednesday, with Silver witnessing the largest decline, measuring more than 3.30%, followed by Palladium down 2.35%. 📉 All indices declined on Wednesday morning, but this is partially due to a positive session on Tuesday. The NASDAQ has been the best-performing index over the past week, rising 2.80%. Full Article 👉 https://www.hfm.com/int/en/analysis/strong-jobs-data-supports-fed-outlook-as-yen-shows-oversold-signals

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