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🥇 Gold Rebounds After US CPI Shock! What's Driving the Recovery? Gold initially declined following higher-than-expected US inflation data, as expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy strengthened the US Dollar and bond yields. 📉 However, growing concerns over a potential economic slowdown and increased safe-haven demand helped Gold recover its losses. 📈 💡Watch our latest market analysis to explore the competing forces influencing Gold prices.

Metals and Energy 📊 The US inflation rate, as well as core inflation data, reads higher than analysts’ previous expectations. The US inflation rose from 3.4% to 3.7% while core inflation rose to 2.6%. 🥇 Gold initially fell 1.65% following the CPI release and a further 0.28% shortly after, before rebounding to fully recover its losses. ⚡ The inflation shock triggered price swings in both directions, as the ‘safe-haven’ asset is being pulled by two driving factors. ⚖️ On one side, high inflation, Fed rate hikes, and high bond yields are pushing Gold prices lower. On the other hand, investors now fear an economic slowdown or even a recession, pushing Gold higher. 🏦 The rebound seen in gold is also partially due to investors selling stocks and buying bonds in a ‘risk-off’ move. As investors buy bonds, yields fall making Gold a more attractive hedge against inflation. 📈 All metals are currently trading higher on Thursday with Gold, Palladium and Silver witnessing the strongest gains. The Gold:Silver ratio is also rising, indicating strong Gold demand. 🛢️ Oil prices are falling on Thursday, but upward risks remain and are gaining momentum. Two cargo ships have sunk in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran ramps up attacks. 🌍 Ukraine and Russia continue to hit energy sites despite Trump’s energy ceasefire. Ukraine’s president advises no ceasefire will be agreed unless the US provides more Patriot missiles. ETFS, Indices and Stocks 📉 All global indices, other than the Dow Jones, are declining as investors fear a possible economic slowdown and high inflation into 2027. 📊 The Nikkei 225, NASDAQ, and the EURO STOXX 50 are the worst-performing indices, while the Dow Jones only stays afloat due to its exposure to defence stocks. 🔄 Economists are also advising there is a direct switch between stocks and bonds. Demand for ‘safe-haven’ assets rises while institutions are reducing exposure to AI and stocks. Forex 💵 The US Dollar Index rose to its highest level in 2026, but was quick to decline as investors became unsure whether an economic slowdown would allow the Fed to hike. 📉 Bond yields are witnessing one of their strongest recent declines as economists say an economic slowdown is plausible. Lower bond yields slightly pressure the USD. 💶 The best-performing currencies of the day are the Euro, Swiss Franc and British Pound. 🇬🇧 Economists say that the UK’s economy is performing more strongly than previously expected. 🇪🇺 Economists and former ECB President, Mario Draghi say that the French debt crisis will not impact the Eurozone and the Euro. 📉 The US Dollar and the Australian Dollar are the worst-performing currencies of the day so far.

Higher-than-expected US inflation initially pushed Gold down 2% 📉 and raised expectations of an October Fed rate hike. 🏛 However, high inflation has prompted a "risk-off" appetite 🛡 partially supporting Gold, which is already attempting a rebound. 📈 What do you think could happen next? 🤔💭

Indices, ETFs and Stocks 💰 Goldman Sachs reported EPS of $17.01, significantly above expectations of approximately $13.02. Revenue rose 23% year-over-year to $18.68 billion. Equities trading revenue jumped 72% to $6.44 billion. 📉 JPMorgan reported EPS of $5.57 and revenue of $50.91 billion, both below analysts' forecasts. Increased expenses and weaker fixed-income trading contributed to the disappointing results, although consumer spending remained resilient. The stock fell 0.90% as a result. 🏥 UnitedHealth reported adjusted EPS of $4.69, exceeding expectations of $4.14, with quarterly revenue reaching $112.7 billion. 💊 Johnson & Johnson stocks fell more than 5.00%. Pharmaceutical sales rose 7.7%, but weaker-than-expected medical technology sales weighed on investor sentiment despite an increase in full-year guidance. 🌍 Most global indices are trading slightly higher on Wednesday, but volatility and order flow seem minimal. Most investors await the CPI data for clarity. Metals & Energy 📉 Gold prices are falling despite lower bond yields and a weaker US Dollar. The main price driver remains expectations that in the medium-term the Fed will still hike and yields will remain high. 📊 The Gold and Silver outlook will likely become clearer after today’s CPI announcement. Market’s expect US inflation to rise from 3.4% to 3.6%. 🥈 Silver and Gold are the day’s worst-performing metals, while Copper and Palladium are holding onto previous gains. 🛢️ Oil prices remain high despite attempts to pressure prices lower. The conflict with the Yemeni Houthis is causing travel disruptions in Saudi Arabia. Major airlines, including Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways, have cancelled or suspended flights to the country. Concerns continue about energy supply disruptions making transportation more expensive. Forex 📈 The best performing currencies of the day so far are the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollar. However, all are experiencing minor gains. 📉 The worst-performing currencies of the day so far are the US Dollar, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. 🏦 New York Fed President John Williams supports one more rate hike this year. With markets already pricing it in, the focus shifts to whether further hikes will follow in 2027. 🇫🇷 Fiscal concerns in France continue to weigh on European market sentiment. ECB President Christine Lagarde has dismissed expectations of central bank intervention in France's bond market, instead calling for stronger fiscal discipline.

Is US inflation getting stuck above 3%? August came in at 3.4% year-on-year, and the Fed has already started hiking again. 📊 Join us LIVE on 14 October at 12:00 as we discuss the CPI print that could decide whether the Fed moves in October or waits until December. 🚀 💡What we'll break down live: ✔️Headline vs core CPI ✔️Energy shock ✔️The AI effect ✔️The Fed. Is a quarter-point enough, or does taming inflation need Volcker-style pain? Who wins and who loses when rates go up: savers, borrowers, or entrepreneurs? ✔️Market reaction in stocks, bonds, dollar and gold in real time 📅 14 October | 12:00 GMT Watch the analysis and discover the key levels to follow! 🎯

Indices, ETFs and Stocks 🌍 Volatility in bonds, gold, currencies, and indices are also being driven by the latest statements from Broadcom and the IMF. US inflation plays a key role in today’s pricing and any upcoming trends.  🤖 Broadcom, the eighth most influential company in the NASDAQ and a key player in AI, has raised concerns about growing speculation in the sector. Its CEO warned that AI investing is becoming ‘casino-like’, with many investors lacking understanding and holding unrealistic expectations. 📉 The NASDAQ and S&P 500 are declining in value due to Broadcom, while the Dow Jones is experiencing a strong gain. This is due to the Dow Jones’s exposure to defensive stocks and the banking sector.  🏦 The banking sector is due to announce their earnings reports before the market opens on Tuesday. Key releases will come from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup. However, other key earnings reports include Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth Group.  ⚠️ If US inflation reads higher than expected, the stock market may experience a decline, particularly if the earnings reports do not positively surprise investors.  Metals & Energies 📈 Gold prices saw a strong rise this morning after seeing a decline on Monday. The key drivers were the decline in bond yields for a second consecutive day, a ‘risk off’ appetite, and a slight decline in the Dollar. 📉 The US 10-year bond yield is trading 63-points lower on Tuesday and is trading at a 10-day low. The decline is supporting metals and other global safe-haven assets. 🥇 All global metals are currently trading higher on Tuesday, with Platinum and Gold witnessing the strongest increases. Platinum is up 0.65% and Gold 0.55%.  📊 If US inflation reads higher than expected, the metals may see a decline, while weaker inflation or a reading in line with expectations could support a further rise.  🛢️ Crude oil prices saw a strong gain on Monday, rising close to $95 per barrel due to escalations between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. 🌐 President Trump advises that he is taking into consideration assisting Saudi Arabia in the Middle East conflict. However, political experts advise that this is not likely due to Midterms.  Forex 💵 The US Dollar Index is declining after weeks of significant gains. The decline is due to indications of an overstretched price, lower bond yields, and a pause until the inflation report.  💱 The US Dollar is the worst-performing currency of the day, along with the Australian Dollar. The best-performing currencies of the day are the Japanese Yen, New Zealand Dollar and the Swiss Franc.  🌍 Also impacting the currency market, along with most assets, is also this morning’s IMF statement. According to the statement, the global economy is becoming increasingly vulnerable to further shocks, particularly as government bond yields rise and public debt remains elevated.  ⚠️ The IMF statement gave a clear warning of the risk of a recession. The statement also made reference to the rising energy prices and possible AI-related market risks.

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Stocks, ETFs & Indices 📊 Key Earnings: Reports from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, UnitedHealth, and Johnson & Johnson could significantly influence all indices, with Goldman Sachs playing a particularly important role. 🏦 Goldman Sachs Expectations: Analysts forecast EPS of $12.90 and revenue of $16.87 billion, supported by strong investment banking activity despite rising operating costs. The stock has risen by almost 6% in 2026 so far. 📈 Market Outlook: Strong Goldman Sachs earnings could support further Dow Jones gains, although US inflation data, Federal Reserve expectations, and other corporate results will also influence market direction. 📉 The upcoming US CPI release will also play a key role in shaping index trends. Higher inflation figures can prompt expectations of an October rate hike and pressure the stock market. 🌍 Middle East tensions and Russia–Ukraine developments remain major catalysts, influencing oil prices, inflation expectations, and global risk sentiment. Forex 💵 Dollar near an 18-month high: The US Dollar Index reached approximately 102.25 on 9 October, gaining around 0.3% during the week and extending its winning streak to four consecutive weeks. The index is moving sideways on Monday. 🇫🇷 French fiscal concerns: Political uncertainty, elevated public debt, and rising government bond yields have weakened confidence in the Euro. 🛢️ Energy prices create additional pressure: Higher oil prices have raised concerns about Eurozone inflation, economic growth, and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy outlook. 🇬🇧 Sterling recovers from recent lows: GBP/USD rebounded toward $1.3240 on Friday after falling to approximately $1.3184 on Thursday. Upcoming GDP, industrial production, and trade figures could influence expectations for Bank of England monetary policy and Sterling’s next move. 🇯🇵 Japanese Intervention concerns increase: Continued Yen weakness has raised speculation about possible intervention by Japanese authorities to stabilise the currency. Metals & Energies 📉 Gold fell to a two-month low near $4,114 on 7 October before recovering to approximately $4,198 on 12 October, supported by a weaker US Dollar and declining Treasury yields. 🕊️ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire developments support Gold: Reports of a possible energy ceasefire pushed oil prices lower, easing inflation concerns and supporting the appeal of non-yielding assets. However, the ceasefire has not been fully confirmed. 🛢️ Middle East tensions keep oil prices elevated: Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have increased concerns about disruptions to global oil supplies, supporting Brent above $100 per barrel.

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Indices, Stocks & ETFs 📊 Global indices are trading higher, with the Nikkei 225 and NASDAQ seeing the strongest rise while the Dow Jones is recording the weakest increase. 📈 The market is witnessing stronger sentiment due to lower oil prices, bond yields, and upcoming earnings season. 🏦 On Tuesday, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, and UnitedHealth Group will make their third quarter reports public. The releases will mainly impact the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, but they could also affect other stocks. 🤖 Nvidia dropped approximately 2.9% amid concerns about AI infrastructure costs and profitability. The decline put US indices under pressure. 💰 OpenAI expects its revenue to reach $70 billion this year, compared with approximately $50 billion at the end of September. The change represents a potential 40% increase. This growth is expected to be driven primarily by rising demand for its enterprise AI services. Metals and Energy 📈 Gold rose 2% on Friday, reaching approximately $4,192, supported by a weaker US Dollar and declining Treasury yields. However, the Dollar is not showing the same level of bearish momentum. 🇨🇳 Continued gold purchases by China’s central bank are providing longer-term support for the precious metal. The People’s Bank of China is particularly taking advantage of lower prices levels. 🛢️ Oil prices are falling following President Trump’s announcement that the US will not attack Iran before the November midterm elections. 🚢 Reports of productive US-Iran discussions are reducing immediate supply concerns, although shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. Forex 🌏 The best-performing currencies of Friday’s Asian session are the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and the Euro. The worst performing are the US Dollar, Canadian Dollar, and the Japanese Yen. 🇪🇺 Eurozone finance ministers and the European Central Bank told France on Thursday to pass a 2027 budget to calm bond markets, as French borrowing costs hover at 25-year highs. The move also supports the Euro.

Can Nvidia become the world's first $6tn company? 👀 The Artificial Intelligence (AI) chipmaker is now just 4% away from becoming the first-ever company to achieve a $6tn market capitalisation. 💪🚀 NVDA shares are at a record high after a strong revenue outlook and a $150bn buyback boost, while its valuation remains near multi-year lows. 📊