Atlas Horizon - Market Insights

Russia and China trading new copper disguised as scrap metal to circumvent taxes and sanctions According to sources cited by Reuters, the process involves mincing copper rod in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region at a middleman's facility to make it indistinguishable from scrap. This allows exporters and importers to profit from the tariff differential. The import of new copper rod in China is taxed at a rate of 4%, while there is no duty on the import of scrap from Russia. Since December, sales of new metal as scrap have been reflected in discrepancies between Chinese and Russian statistics, which are provided by commercial data suppliers since state providers refuse to do so. Since December, the reported imports of scrap in Chinese statistics have significantly increased. Copper scrap consists of a mix of wires and pipes that have been previously used. They are cut into grain-sized pieces or rolled into coils and pressed for transportation. This process goes unnoticed as the Xinjiang Uygur Region is closed to free visitation. Legally, there are no obstacles to purchasing metal from Russian firms under sanctions. However, some buyers are wary of paying any money that would go to Russians. Reuters sources indicated that some Chinese companies have created new departments to handle business with Russia.

Fast food prices in the U.S. have seen significant increases from 2014 to 2024, outpacing overall inflation for the same period (31%): Average menu prices across various chains have risen by 39% - 100%. McDonald's has experienced the steepest price increase among the analyzed chains, with prices doubling (100% increase). Popeyes' prices followed with an 86% increase, and Taco Bell ranked third with an 81% increase. Subway and Starbucks had the smallest price rises among the chains studied, with a 39% increase since 2014. Notably, the price of a McChicken has nearly tripled over the past decade, rising from $1 to $2.99.

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China won't buy wheat from West China has canceled the purchase of 1 million tons of Australian wheat and half a million tons from the USA, marking the largest cancellation of wheat deliveries in decades. Reuters suggests that the cancellation occurred because Russia "started to flood the global market with cheap wheat as it reduces stocks ahead of an expected unprecedented harvest," with wheat prices currently at a 3-year low, making it very difficult for American or Australian wheat to compete with Russian wheat. China, being the world's largest importer of wheat, is likely to replace or has already replaced these deliveries with Russian wheat.

Oil prices may breach $100 per barrel - Bloomberg fears Mexico recently announced supply issues and a reduction in production by 35%. The USA, Qatar, and Iraq have also reduced supplies, and supply chains are going haywire due to sanctions and military actions in the Red Sea. Separately, Bloomberg points out the problem with Russia - sanctions have significantly increased oil prices. Moreover, Ukrainian strikes on refineries are forcing Russia to demonstratively reduce exports, heating an already overheated market influenced by Israel and the Houthis. The problem is mainly for the USA - oil reserves are at minimal levels thanks to Biden. Not only is it becoming increasingly difficult to export oil, but replenishing reserves is also much more expensive. Bloomberg, of course, doesn't explicitly say anything. But between the lines, there is a sense of fatigue from both oil players and analysts over the sanction madness.

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The price of coffee has broken a 15-year record Futures for May on the London exchange reached $3,838 per ton. Growth since the beginning of the year - 24%. Amid abnormal heat and water shortage in Vietnam, the cheapest sort, Robusta, is rapidly increasing. And following it, the more expensive Arabica is also rising. In November 2023, there was a forecast for a 10% decrease in harvest and a 10% rise in prices. Now, a 20% decrease in harvest is predicted, and no one dares to forecast what will happen to the price.

How war and mass mobilization have affected Israel's economy Since mid-October 2023, Israel has been engaged in intensive military operations in the Gaza Strip. 1️⃣ Israel's economy contracted by 19.4% year-over-year in Q4 2023. 2️⃣ Consumer spending in October-December 2023 decreased by 26.9%. 3️⃣ Business investments fell by 67.8%. 4️⃣ Exports decreased by 18.3%, and imports by 42%. 5️⃣ Government spending increased by 88.1%, mainly due to military expenses. In 2024, Israel aims to increase its national debt by $60 billion – currently, it stands at about $219 billion. Since the beginning of the operation in the Gaza Strip, the government has already borrowed about 81 billion shekels ($22.2 billion). The government also intends to raise VAT from 17% to 18%. 310,000 individuals were mobilized. Additionally, an entry restriction was imposed on 160,000 Palestinian workers from the West Bank. About 120,000 citizens were evacuated from the northern and southern regions of the country to safe areas. Overall, Israel's economy lost approximately 20% of its workforce. Only now is the Israeli government beginning to massively import construction workers from India instead of Palestinians – the first batch of 6,000 Indian workers is expected to arrive this month. A gradual demobilization of military personnel has also begun. However, as noted lately in many developed countries, the Central Bank in such a complex situation performed better than the government. The Bank of Israel managed to prevent the shekel from depreciating – before the war began in September 2023, it was 0.26 to the dollar, today – 0.27. The inflation rate, which was 5.4% at the beginning of 2023, was reduced to 3% by the end of the year – to the upper target inflation band, and at the beginning of 2024 – even to 2.6%. Nonetheless, Israel's economy is adapting. The OECD forecast predicts a 1.2% economic growth for the country in 2024. Military spending as a share of the budget will increase by only 4 percentage points – from 16% to 20%. It's also important to remember that under no circumstances will the US government and private Jewish funds leave Israel without financial and military support. Follow us on Telegram

Russia's GDP growth accelerated in February to 7.7% In February 2024, GDP exceeded the level of the previous year by 7.7% year-over-year after an increase of 4.6% year-over-year in January. The growth of industrial production in February 2024 accelerated to 8.5% year-over-year after 4.6% year-over-year in January. The manufacturing industry returned to double-digit growth rates: 13.5% year-over-year after 7.5% year-over-year in January. The growth of retail trade turnover in February accelerated to 12.3% in annual terms in real terms after 9.1% in January. The mining industry, by the end of February, added +2.1% year-over-year after +0.8% year-over-year in January.

⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️Iran could attack Israel within 48 hours. Publications report that the CIA allegedly informed Israel about a possible attack. Israeli air forces are on alert and there are GPS problems over the region.

Crypto fear & greed Index: 71 Whenever this index reaches 95, then major selling happens. When this index goes above 90, then it is a red sign and correction can happen at any time. On 14th March 2024, when BTC made a new all-time high, it was around 88 and after that, BTC corrected more than -17.66% from the all-time high till 20th march 2024 swing low. Yesterday, the index was same 79. The lowest low of 3 months was 48 which was noted on the 24th January 2023.