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01 Sanctions hit the most sacred thing
In 2023, Russian vodka exports plummeted by more than half, totaling just $59.7 million for the year. Kazakhstan was the top importer, purchasing $27.9 million worth of vodka, which represents a 22% decrease from 2022. Israel and Armenia followed as the second and third largest importers of Russian vodka. The total value of these exports in 2022 was significantly higher at $141.7 million. The dramatic drop in exports is attributed to the weakening of the ruble and sanctions imposed by European countries.
Want to support Russia? Drink vodka!
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02 Apple ❤️ GPT
Apple Inc. has entered into an agreement with the startup OpenAI to integrate artificial intelligence technologies into iPhones, according to a Bloomberg report citing sources. This partnership will enable the use of ChatGPT in the upcoming iOS 18.
Additionally, Apple has been in discussions with Google regarding licenses for Alphabet Inc.’s chat-bot, Gemini. Although these talks have not yet resulted in an agreement, they are reportedly ongoing.
The agreement with OpenAI will allow Apple to add the chat-bot as a new feature in its AI deployment program. Apple plans to announce a range of AI features next month during its annual Worldwide Developers Conference, Bloomberg notes.
Last chance for Apple to introduce something exclusive.
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03 ⚡️ Highly recommended: Geopolitics Live, one of the fastest-growing and most quoted political Telegram channels in English.
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04 Unexpected cost of sanctions
Italy has spent around €32 million over the last two years on the upkeep of yachts owned by Russian oligarchs, which are moored in Italian ports due to European authorities' sanctions. These yachts were intended to be sold, but legal complications have delayed their disposal, leaving the Italian Ministry of Finance to cover ongoing maintenance and docking fees.
Each yacht incurs about €10,000 per month for utilities like electricity and water, and docking fees range from €10,000 to €12,000 per month. Additionally, annual engine maintenance can exceed €50,000 per yacht.
Amidst these expenditures, discussions in Rome have increasingly focused on confiscation, but legal grounds for such actions are still lacking. Italy is not alone in facing high costs for maintaining seized Russian assets; the USA reportedly spends $7 million annually to maintain "Kerimov's yacht", with efforts to auction it remaining fruitless so far.
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05 Tesla is facing challenges in China and Europe
The sales dropped 21% compared to last year. In China, Tesla's market share fell from 4% to 2.6%, despite overall car sales in the country increasing by 28%. Tesla struggles to compete with Chinese manufacturers who offer similarly priced but superior options. A potential solution for Tesla could be the introduction of robotaxis in China, which could then expand globally. Additionally, the imposition of a 100% tariff on Chinese electric cars in the U.S. effectively secures Tesla's home market.
In Europe, Tesla's factory in Germany is under pressure from eco-activists, with over 1200 participants demanding a halt to the deforestation near a city required for the Gigafactory's expansion. They, ostensibly guided by environmental concerns, are suspected to be influenced by the German auto lobby. This lobby initially delayed the factory's production start by nearly a year through similar actions and is now attempting to obstruct Tesla's further expansion in the EU, suggesting that Elon Musk may have chosen the wrong country for his factory.
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06 New Record Investments for TON Cryptocurrency
Pantera Capital, a major American fund, has announced plans to invest in Pavel Durov's TON and Telegram. The fund is launching a new $1 billion cryptocurrency investment project, allocating 20% of its resources to liquid and public tokens. Dan Morehead, the founder of the fund, personally met with Durov and complimented him.
Pantera Capital sees promising investment opportunities in TON because this currency is linked to the massive internet platform Telegram, which has about 930 million users — currently the third most downloaded messenger in the world. This user base can be tapped to attract potential clients through services, games, earning opportunities, and advertising payments — all of which Durov discussed at the Token2049 conference in Dubai. In a public letter about the plans to invest in TON, Morehead emphasizes Durov's independence from government authorities, a fact evidenced by his biography, which Durov discussed in an interview with Carlson. These starting positions are expected to help TON stand out among the 23,000 existing cryptocurrencies in the world and soar.
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07 Uranium Tears
Centrus, the largest nuclear energy company in the United States, has announced its intention to petition relevant government agencies. They highlighted that the ban on Russian uranium imports is unacceptable to them, and they plan to continue supplying their clients while safeguarding the interests of the entire American nuclear industry. The company aims to request the U.S. authorities to make an exception for them.
Nuclear power plants account for 29% of all power stations in the States, yet the country produces little fuel for them. Recently, the U.S. reported that it had managed to produce 200 pounds (90 kg) of enriched uranium for the first time, and by the end of the year, this figure is expected to reach 1 ton. However, this is still nearly 700 times less than what they import from Russia. Therefore, Centrus' request seems quite reasonable, and the chances of achieving it are real. The law approved by the Senate includes a provision allowing exceptions to the ban until 2027 if it serves the "national interests" of the States.
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08 📁Sputnik has organised a catalog of some of the best Telegram channels to follow live events and keep up with the latest geopolitical, financial and cultural news.
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09 Xi's trip first results
The visit of the Chinese President to France ended without any significant agreements, while his trip to Eastern Europe proved to be more fruitful. President Macron had hoped to forge closer personal ties with his Chinese counterpart to influence Vladimir Putin to end war in Ukraine. However, China's stance remains unchanged.
In Budapest, Xi Jinping announced a series of new investments, promoting Hungary and Prime Minister Viktor Orban as models for the type of relationship the European Union could have with China. He also promised to build infrastructure in Hungary that would facilitate the distribution of products from Chinese factories across the trading bloc.
Additionally, it seems Xi has persuaded Serbia to become the first European country to join China's efforts to create a coalition challenging the US-led world order.
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10 No trade peace with China
The Biden administration is planning to significantly increase tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, according to the Wall Street Journal. In a strategic move, these tariffs could be quadrupled, marking a significant escalation in the trade tensions between the United States and China. Additionally, Bloomberg reports that the new tariffs will target not only electric vehicles but also other strategic industries.
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11 Sanctions return oligarchs' money back to Russia
Wealthy Russian businessmen are beginning to transfer their assets to Russian jurisdiction, reports Bloomberg. This is especially relevant for those whose companies are directly in Russia. Some are transferring assets to friendly states, such as the UAE. The reason lies in the significant risks of confiscation in the West.
Traditionally, Russian billionaires earned in Russia and then transferred profits to offshore accounts. In foreign jurisdictions, their assets, often earned by not entirely honest means, were safe. Additionally, this allowed them to reduce taxes and conceal information about their ownership. After the imposition of sanctions, this no longer works—assets related to Russia can easily be confiscated.
In Russia itself, there are two trends regarding private business. On one hand, there has been an increase in cases of nationalization. Sometimes assets that were privatized more than 30 years ago are expropriated.
On the other hand, the government welcomes the return of companies home and actively facilitates redomiciliation. Sometimes it even conducts it forcibly and freezes property rights to bring firms back under Russian jurisdiction. However, usually, businesses are simply attracted to special administrative regions, where a preferential tax regime operates.
Many Russian oligarchs have realized that Western havens are not so safe. Now those who have been extracting resources from the country for years are simply forced to build their lives in Russia. Some of them will have to face justice. Calls to return assets began as early as 2014, with certain concessions offered. But at that time, almost all oligarchs again chose a luxurious life in Europe. Now, they have no other choice. Any, even the friendliest jurisdiction can instantly cease to be so.
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12 Germany's export sector is showing signs of recovery, thanks to USA and China
According to the latest data from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, exports in March increased by 0.9% compared to February, surpassing expectations by nearly 0.4%. This uptick comes after a 1.6% drop in February, which had sparked concerns about the competitiveness of Europe's largest economy.
The sudden shift is largely attributed to heightened demand from China and the USA. This situation underscores why European leaders are keen on improving relations with China. Despite a 3.7% increase in exports to the USA and a 3.6% rise to China, protectionism still poses significant challenges for any export-driven economy, particularly for Germany with its rising costs and decreasing competitiveness.
Overall, the situation in Germany remains challenging. Industrial orders fell by 0.4% in March, and the outlook for German industry remains subdued. This presents a complex scenario: both Russia and the EU are adjusting to the repercussions of sanctions. The impact is palpable on both sides—Russia is mitigating issues with record government spending, while Germany is sliding into recession. Yet, a complete disaster has been averted, even without Russian gas or European machinery.
It will be interesting to see what changes in the next 3-4 months. However, it seems that Germany may struggle to emerge from recession and return to even a modest growth rate of 1% per year by the end of 2024. Therefore, trade wars with China are currently highly undesirable for Europe.
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14 China's exports returned to growth in April, boosting the economy
In dollar terms, exports increased by 1.5% compared to the previous year, while imports grew by 8.4%. Economists had forecasted a smaller growth. These indicators are expected to remain positive in the coming months, as there was a downturn in the middle of last year. The data confirm an increase in global demand, which supports economic growth within China. Sales abroad are crucial while household consumer spending remains weak.
Other trade leaders in Asia also saw an increase in foreign trade due to strong demand in the U.S. South Korea's exports grew by nearly 14%, and Taiwan reported a record level of shipments to the U.S. Meanwhile, China increased its exports to Southeast Asia, but not to the U.S. and EU. In imports, supplies to China from the U.S., South Korea, Taiwan, the Netherlands, and Russia grew by more than 10%.
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15 America has imposed sanctions against 37 Chinese companies
The U.S. Department of Commerce has added 26 Chinese firms to its blacklist due to their involvement in supplying prohibited goods to Russia.
Another eight were restricted due to an incident involving a Chinese aerostat that entered American airspace. Sanctions also affected three companies involved in programs to create similar aerostats.
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16 Iraq 🛢 Ukraine
Iraq has unexpectedly handed over the development of the strategically important Akkas field to a Ukrainian company, bypassing expected Russian companies. The rights were granted to "Ukrzemresource."
The proven reserves of the field amount to about 159 billion cubic meters of gas, and Iraq's Ministry of Oil plans to extract approximately 11 million cubic meters of fuel per day from the site.
Smells like some democracy and freedom in this news...
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17 Fresh world brains are Asian
This week, UNESCO released a new report on "Global Migration for 2024," which provides an overview of the state of educational migration worldwide. The numbers are quite intriguing and largely echo what has been said repeatedly: China and India will be key economic regions of the 21st century.
The report examines the number of students from different countries studying abroad and ranks the most "internationalized" educational economies. Unsurprisingly, China tops the list with just over one million students studying abroad. India is in second place with 508,000 students, followed by Vietnam with 137,000, slightly more than Germany with 126,000. Remarkably, Uzbekistan follows Germany with 109,000 students.
It is also noteworthy that the total number of international students is only 6.4 million, meaning that China and India account for about 25% of this number. As for their destinations, the United States remains the largest host country for foreign students (over 833,000). The UK (about 601,000), Australia (about 378,000), Germany (over 376,000), and Canada (about 318,000) follow.
Given these figures, it is not surprising that many complex technological supply chains are migrating to Asia. Western countries are effectively training their current and future competitors. If these numbers are projected over years or decades, this represents tens of millions of highly educated individuals that China and India will benefit from. The main hope is that along with technical skills and knowledge, they do not import the troubles of Western civilization.
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18 ▪️ Why is South Asia the most promising region in the world?
▪️ How is the US trying to shape the region for itself in 2024?
▪️ How are new trade routes and military conflicts around the world making South Asia a major geopolitical center of power?
Find the answers on the Gaganauts of Geopolitics channel, the NUMBER 1 source on Telegram for South Asian news.
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19 China – World Leader in Money Supply Growth
Since 2000, China has outpaced both the US and the Eurozone combined in terms of the speed of yuan printing. Money issuance in China, the US, and Europe is based on borrowing. However, there's a subtle difference: in China, the main borrowers are businesses, the population, and provinces. Through loans, investments are attracted to manufacturing and services, new real estate, and infrastructure respectively.
In developed countries, the main borrower is the government. In the US, for example, the main expenditure item of the federal budget is social welfare. This means that money borrowed by the government directly or indirectly ends up in the pockets of the country's residents. From there, the money quickly flows into stores, and from there, to the exporters like China.
In the end, all major economies are printing money. However, inflation hits developed countries the hardest. China, on the other hand, has devised an excellent tool for channeling excess liquidity: it is invested in production and building.
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20 Key Points of Vladimir Putin's Newly Signed Decree
- The decree is titled "National Development Goals."
- The primary demographic goal is to increase the total fertility rate (TFR) to 1.6 by 2030 and to 1.8 by 2036, up from the current 1.4. Additionally, the average life expectancy is expected to rise to 78 years by 2030.
- By 2030, Russia aims to become the world's fourth-largest economy by purchasing power parity (PPP). Currently ranked fifth, Russia must overtake Japan, which is currently 20-25% ahead.
- Russia's economic growth should exceed the global average, which currently stands at 3%. Russia's GDP growth for 2023 was 3.6%, but the average growth over the last decade has been 1-2%.
- The decree sets a goal to reduce social inequality to a Gini coefficient of 0.37 by 2030. In 2023, it was 0.403. The closer to zero, the better.
- The poverty level should be reduced to 7% by 2030. It currently stands at 8.5%.
- The average minimum living space per person by 2030 should be 33 square meters, compared to the current average of approximately 28 square meters.
The decree also incorporates certain elements from the previous iterations of 2018 and 2020, such as sustainable population growth, support for childbirth, increased social payments, and other points. Analysts note that although the timeframe for achieving these goals has been extended to 2030, the decree has become more realistic overall (the list of tasks was reduced from 160 to 82). Importantly, many of the goals are not arbitrary but are based on ongoing processes, such as Russia's recent overtaking of Germany for the fifth place in GDP by PPP.
Your thoughts?
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21 🔥 Natural gas consumption is expected to grow faster than current forecasts
That's according to American oil and gas giants Chevron and the smaller company, Cheniere.
A significant portion of gas demand will come from electricity generation, as other energy sources such as solar or wind cannot yet provide sufficient volume and uninterrupted power supply.
Jack Fusco, CEO of Cheniere, believes that China alone will double its gas consumption by the end of the 2020s, and the demand for electricity in the USA is expected to increase by 20% by that time. Meeting such a demand volume in a short time is possible with new gas power plants, which are significantly cheaper than nuclear power plants and are also classified as "green energy."
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22 🛢 Fuel demand in India growing
According to data published by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the Ministry of Petroleum, total fuel consumption in India rose to 19.8 million tons per month, marking a 6% increase, with consumption in March also up by a similar 5%.
The main drivers of demand growth have been the revival of industry and freight transportation. According to analysts, including those from Bernstein, India is expected to become the world's leading fuel consumer by the end of the decade, surpassing China in consumption volumes.
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23 📉 Agony for German industry, or not yet?
German industrial orders declined by 0.4% in March compared to the previous month, contrary to expectations of growth.
In February, the figure dropped by 0.8% according to revised data, instead of the previously reported 0.2% increase.
Foreign orders in March increased by 2%, including a 10.6% rise from eurozone countries. However, orders from other countries decreased by 2.9%. Domestic orders fell by 3.6%.
Orders for capital goods and intermediate goods decreased by 0.4%, while orders for consumer goods rose by 0.7%.
Overall, the volume of orders for German industrial enterprises in March decreased by 1.9% compared to the same month in 2023, following a decrease of 8.8% in February.
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24 🛢 Saudis raise oil price for Asia again
Saudi Aramco has raised its oil prices for Asian consumers for the third consecutive month, indicating confidence in ongoing demand. The flagship Arab Light crude, scheduled for delivery in June, will see a price increase of $0.90.
This price hike was not unexpected for consumers; however, even such a modest increase could impact the profitability of Asian refineries, particularly in China. This could potentially trigger a new wave of fuel price increases globally.
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25 Two can play this game
In response to the EU's tariffs on Chinese automobiles, China is considering imposing similar duties on alcohol from the EU. The mere news of this investigation caused the stocks of French alcohol producers Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau to plummet. China accounts for 20% of France's cognac exports, and this figure is even higher if parallel markets are considered. Industry representatives are expected to seek discussions with Xi Jinping during his visit to France.
Previously, China had implemented similar sanctions against Australia and its wine, raising tariffs to 218.4%, effectively halting shipments and bankrupting some Australian producers.
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26 Green agenda troubles
BP is scaling back its plans to reduce emissions and cut hydrocarbon production, following other companies. The company is using quite elaborate rhetoric: the "ultimate" goals remain in effect, but the "interim" targets for emissions and production are being revised.
Western companies are reducing commitments from a 40% reduction to 20% or even 15% by 2030. It should be noted that previously, companies like Shell, BP, and even Chevron were very vocal in the media about reducing production due to environmental concerns.
The chaos and energy supply crisis in Europe, along with growing demand for oil and gas from Asian countries, have spurred demand and production volumes. OPEC countries, while supporting reductions, are not slowing down in the exploration of new fields. Additionally, countries such as Guyana, Nigeria, Angola, and others are taking more steps to attract international corporations to develop oil reserves.
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27 Warren Buffett has accumulated a record $189 billion in cash
Each time he accumulates large sums of money as the Federal Reserve raises rates, a significant stock market crash occurs within the next 12 months, analysts note. This was the case in 2000, 2008, and 2020.
He sells assets and stays in cash. Cash is needed to buy assets at the bottom. The chart shows that before every crisis, he moved into cash.
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28 Spending patterns after earning in cryptocurrency are not similar to lottery winnings, economists have found
According to Associate Professor Darren Aiello from the Finance Department at Brigham Young University in the United States, if households tend to treat cryptocurrency like gambling, it is expected that they would spend their earnings similarly to lottery winners. However, their assessments show that household expenses due to cryptocurrency income are more similar to patterns observed with traditional stock investments. Earnings from cryptocurrency increased the consumption of American households by about $30 billion over ten years. Their consumption share from earnings grew more than after gains in the stock market but less than with lottery winnings.
This issue is important when legalizing cryptocurrencies, which proponents of traditional markets often consider analogous to gambling and financial pyramids. In the U.S., after the launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, the pool of potential crypto investors expanded. Through the analysis of income distribution, attempts can be made to determine how rationally people use investments. However, economists note that much depends on the initial income level—poorer households will fully utilize their winnings to meet needs. One way to find this out is the housing market. In some parts of California, Nevada, Utah, and other places where cryptocurrency is popular, housing prices have grown faster than the average level. For every household that withdrew $5,000 from their cryptocurrency account, one in twenty bought a home for the first time, researchers at Brigham Young University calculated.
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29 China and Serbia: BRICS of the Chinese Kind
President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, is seriously considering foregoing membership in the European Union and joining the BRICS group, a move that could represent a significant geopolitical shift. The prospect of the Balkans joining BRICS is really worrying diplomatic departments in Western countries.
Serbia's potential inclusion in BRICS opens unprecedented opportunities for the Communist Party of China (CPC). There is also a possibility that Emmanuel Macron might join a BRICS summit as an observer, a position the French President has been advocating for some time.
In August 2023, China referred to BRICS as a closed block open only to certain states, but now there is increasing discussion about expanding access to BRICS' membership mechanisms. According to China's own statements, preliminary negotiations are currently underway with Nigeria, Vietnam, and Kazakhstan.
Concurrently with negotiations with Serbia, the CPC has begun to describe BRICS as an "open group," making the bloc attractive to other European countries and justifying the invitation of observer nations. China's obvious intent is to bring France into BRICS. However, given France's possible deployment of its Foreign Legion units to Ukraine, the prospects for this issue's resolution with Russia remain quite vague.
Why does China want to scale BRICS to European countries? The answer is simple: BRICS is China's analog to the North American Free Trade Area. Although the principles and rules of organization differ, their objectives are very similar. China aims to use BRICS to bring as broad a range of countries as possible under its influence.
In this view, other countries within BRICS, from the Chinese perspective, are seen as nothing more than resource satellites whose main task is to support the functioning of the Chinese economy and facilitate the transfer of brains and technology from the periphery to the center.
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30 💸 Russians have to rely on their own ruble more and more
According to senior Western officials and Russian financiers, the US's imposition of stringent measures on banks conducting payments to/from Russia has significantly complicated the transfer of money to/from Russia.
Trade volumes between Moscow and key partners like Turkey and China plummeted in the first quarter of this year after the US targeted international banks.
A US decree enacted late last year prompted lenders to sever ties with Russian counterparts and avoid transactions in various currencies, stated Western officials and three high-ranking Russian financiers.
Turkey's export of "high-priority" goods—primarily for civilian use but defined as critical for military purposes, such as microchips—to Russia and five former Soviet republics surged post-Special Military Operation. According to Trade Data Monitor, this volume reached $586 million in 2023, five times higher than before.
However, in the first quarter of this year, Turkey's exports to Russia fell by one-third compared to the same period last year, amounting to $2.1 billion. The volume of priority goods exports to Russia and neighboring countries, according to available data, decreased by 40% to $93 million in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter, indicating the impact of the US presidential order.
Increasingly complex transactions may confuse Western regulators as Russian companies and their counterparts engage in more transactions that separate the buyer and seller,
said Matis Maeker, head of Estonia's financial intelligence unit.
This raises transaction costs but also makes it more challenging for law enforcement to timely detect them, he added.
There are so many banks in the world that they will find a new way to circumvent sanctions.
According to financiers, Russian importers and exporters are also increasingly dealing in rubles due to difficulties in exchanging currency for dollars and euros.
Traders buying Russian oil in India are now conducting transactions in rubles after the US forced banks in the United Arab Emirates to stop settlements in dirhams, said a high-ranking Russian banker and former head of a Russian oil company.
This is a loophole for sanctions,
said the senior Russian banker, adding that foreigners are allowed to buy rubles on the Moscow Exchange for settlements with Russian counterparts.
These payments are easily processed because [foreign banks] can open correspondent accounts in rubles at Russian branches of foreign banks.
He believes the ruble will become
the main currency in Russia's underbelly because it's the only way to make it so that [the US Office of Foreign Assets Control of the Treasury Department] doesn't notice it.
In early April, Bank of Georgia informed its clients that transfers to Russia in the fields of "technology, construction, industry, and aviation" would only be conducted in rubles.
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31 🪙 GOLD GOLD GOLD
While global media speculate on the reasons for the rise in gold prices, Goldman Sachs stoically informs their clients:
1️⃣ It's because of America's.
2️⃣ Part of the rise in gold prices is due to the consequences of anti-Russian sanctions.
3️⃣ Another part of the rise in gold prices is due to the United States' problems with fiscal discipline.
4️⃣ Yet another part of the rise in gold prices is due to concerns about the dollar financial system.
5️⃣ The main buyers [note: of physical] gold are central banks: China, India, Singapore, Qatar, Turkey, and even Poland.
6️⃣ In the baseline scenario, they expect gold to hit $2700 per ounce by the end of the year.
If the U.S. continues with sanctions at the current pace (as it has been since 2022), then Goldman expects an additional +16% increase.
If the U.S. stages another mini-budget crisis (like the circus with the "debt ceiling"), then Goldman expects an additional +14%.
Excellent prospects.
The Goldmans also do not have a crystal ball, they do not know the future, and they have no guarantees (or investment recommendations), but the direction of movement (and the logic of their math model) is likely close to reality.
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32 Luxury car manufacturers diversify their business
In Miami, Aston Martin has completed a 66-story tower featuring elite apartments. The sail-shaped complex includes a scenic pool with jacuzzis and changing cabanas on the 55th floor, as well as a two-story fitness center, two cinemas, and a virtual golf simulator. The building features a sky bar, a restaurant, a ballroom, private dining areas, as well as a spa, a beauty salon, and a barbershop. It offers direct access to the sea via a super-yacht marina and services of a private butler.
Aston Martin announced that 99% of the apartments were sold before the construction was completed. The apartments were listed for $1.5–$8.5 million, while the penthouses ranged from $16 to $59 million. Buyers of the most expensive units were gifted an Aston Martin Vulcan—of which only 24 exist—as well as an Aston Martin DBX sports SUV or a DB11 sports car.
Aston Martin is not the first luxury car manufacturer to enter the elite housing market. A 63-story building by Bentley is set to open in 2026 along the coastline of Sunny Isles Beach, Florida, featuring 216 apartments.
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33 Don't send us your gas, but we will sue you
The German company Uniper, formerly the largest purchaser of Russian gas in Germany, is demanding more than $15 billion from Gazprom as compensation for losses incurred due to Moscow's breach of gas contracts.
The German company, which used to buy 20 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Gazprom, expects a court verdict in the coming months. Sources from Reuters believe it is highly likely that the court will side with the German company in its dispute with the Russian gas giant.
You couldn't make it up if you tried: impose sanctions, refuse Russian gas, sue because the Russians refuse to supply gas, and demand $15 billion.
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34 Afghanistan wants business with Russia
Afghanistan has proposed to create a hub for trading Russian oil within its territory, specifically in the western province of Herat. This initiative, developed in cooperation with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, aims to leverage the region's strategic geographical location to facilitate oil supplies to South Asian countries.
During a recent intergovernmental meeting in Kabul, which included representatives from the three countries, Kazakhstan offered to assist in developing the necessary railway infrastructure. This railway would connect South Asia with the Persian Gulf, facilitating a north-south trade corridor.
The planned hub is expected to have a capacity of up to 1 million tons of oil, enabling shipments to Pakistan and other regional countries that lack their own oil fields.
This is what happens, when "democratic forces" leave.
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35 It's not "we told you so" yet, but almost there
Indonesia and Saudi Arabia have urged European Union partners to refrain from confiscating frozen Russian assets, according to the Financial Times (FT), citing sources. Both countries are concerned that such actions could set a precedent that might threaten their own reserves in Europe. At a recent G20 finance ministers' meeting, representatives from Indonesia and Saudi Arabia expressed worries about the safety of their funds, questioning, "Are our funds still safe?"
In the EU itself, the idea of confiscating Russian assets is not widely supported. Italian Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti noted that finding a legal basis for such a decision would be "difficult and complicated," while French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire believes it is entirely impossible. Germany and Japan also remain "extremely cautious" regarding this issue.
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36 Apple announced the largest share buyback in U.S. history
It will amount to $110 billion, setting a new record for the company which already holds the top five largest buybacks. This news came alongside their quarterly sales report, which exceeded expectations, suggesting an end to their recent downturn despite a 4.3% drop in revenue for the quarter. While Apple's stock had been down 10% year-to-date, the S&P 500 had risen by 6%. Sales in China, a critical market for Apple, have been declining, but CEO Tim Cook indicated that revenues from iPhone sales in mainland China have increased, attributing the overall revenue decline to other parts of the business.
Additionally, on May 7, Apple plans to introduce new iPads, marking the first update to the tablet line in a year and a half. In June, Tim Cook will present a strategy on artificial intelligence at the annual Worldwide Developers Conference, which typically positively impacts tech company stocks if expectations are not too high.
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37 Turkey-Israel trade halt
President Erdogan's announcement of a complete halt in trade with Israel until it ensures the uninterrupted flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza could significantly reduce the trade volume between the two countries by billions of dollars. In response, Israel's Industrialists Association has called for protective tariffs on imports from Turkey for the next three years and is considering a complete ban on certain goods. Israel may also initiate programs to reduce its reliance on Turkish construction materials, food, and other imports.
In 2023, the trade turnover between the two countries was $6.8 billion, with 76% of it consisting of imports from Turkey, making it Israel's sixth-largest source of imports. Major categories include steel, machinery, minerals, fuel, and food products.
Israel and Turkey had restored diplomatic relations in August of the previous year after a decade of tension. However, the trade volume was not significantly affected—it was even higher in 2022. The countries had been exploring opportunities to expand cooperation, but the situation was disrupted by a Hamas attack, which the Turkish authorities do not consider a terrorist organization, and Erdogan immediately spoke out against attacks on Gaza.
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38 💲 The pace at which countries are moving away from the dollar in their reserves has begun to accelerate. Last year, countries divested from the dollar ten times faster than over the past two decades.
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40 Russia captured more than a third of the Indian fertilizer market
The country has increased its share to 34% in January-February from 23% in the same period of 2023, maintaining its position as the top fertilizer supplier to the country.
The supplier structure in the Indian fertilizer market has transformed over the last year. China, which held the second spot in terms of export volumes in 2023, fell to seventh place as its shipments at the start of the year plummeted eightfold to 59.3 tons. Saudi Arabia moved up from third to second place, holding 12.2% of the market, though the physical volume of fertilizer imports halved to 217.8 thousand tons. Oman took third place with an 11.5% market share, reducing its shipments by 37% to 206.1 thousand tons. Together, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Oman accounted for nearly 58% of the deliveries for the reported period. Suppliers from Canada and the UAE managed to increase their market shares from 3.4% to 9.7% and from 1.7% to 6.6%, respectively.
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Sanctions hit the most sacred thing
In 2023, Russian vodka exports plummeted by more than half, totaling just $59.7 million for the year. Kazakhstan was the top importer, purchasing $27.9 million worth of vodka, which represents a 22% decrease from 2022. Israel and Armenia followed as the second and third largest importers of Russian vodka. The total value of these exports in 2022 was significantly higher at $141.7 million. The dramatic drop in exports is attributed to the weakening of the ruble and sanctions imposed by European countries.
Want to support Russia? Drink vodka!
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Apple ❤️ GPT
Apple Inc. has entered into an agreement with the startup OpenAI to integrate artificial intelligence technologies into iPhones, according to a Bloomberg report citing sources. This partnership will enable the use of ChatGPT in the upcoming iOS 18.
Additionally, Apple has been in discussions with Google regarding licenses for Alphabet Inc.’s chat-bot, Gemini. Although these talks have not yet resulted in an agreement, they are reportedly ongoing.
The agreement with OpenAI will allow Apple to add the chat-bot as a new feature in its AI deployment program. Apple plans to announce a range of AI features next month during its annual Worldwide Developers Conference, Bloomberg notes.
Last chance for Apple to introduce something exclusive.
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Unexpected cost of sanctions
Italy has spent around €32 million over the last two years on the upkeep of yachts owned by Russian oligarchs, which are moored in Italian ports due to European authorities' sanctions. These yachts were intended to be sold, but legal complications have delayed their disposal, leaving the Italian Ministry of Finance to cover ongoing maintenance and docking fees.
Each yacht incurs about €10,000 per month for utilities like electricity and water, and docking fees range from €10,000 to €12,000 per month. Additionally, annual engine maintenance can exceed €50,000 per yacht.
Amidst these expenditures, discussions in Rome have increasingly focused on confiscation, but legal grounds for such actions are still lacking. Italy is not alone in facing high costs for maintaining seized Russian assets; the USA reportedly spends $7 million annually to maintain "Kerimov's yacht", with efforts to auction it remaining fruitless so far.
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Tesla is facing challenges in China and Europe
The sales dropped 21% compared to last year. In China, Tesla's market share fell from 4% to 2.6%, despite overall car sales in the country increasing by 28%. Tesla struggles to compete with Chinese manufacturers who offer similarly priced but superior options. A potential solution for Tesla could be the introduction of robotaxis in China, which could then expand globally. Additionally, the imposition of a 100% tariff on Chinese electric cars in the U.S. effectively secures Tesla's home market.
In Europe, Tesla's factory in Germany is under pressure from eco-activists, with over 1200 participants demanding a halt to the deforestation near a city required for the Gigafactory's expansion. They, ostensibly guided by environmental concerns, are suspected to be influenced by the German auto lobby. This lobby initially delayed the factory's production start by nearly a year through similar actions and is now attempting to obstruct Tesla's further expansion in the EU, suggesting that Elon Musk may have chosen the wrong country for his factory.
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New Record Investments for TON Cryptocurrency
Pantera Capital, a major American fund, has announced plans to invest in Pavel Durov's TON and Telegram. The fund is launching a new $1 billion cryptocurrency investment project, allocating 20% of its resources to liquid and public tokens. Dan Morehead, the founder of the fund, personally met with Durov and complimented him.
Pantera Capital sees promising investment opportunities in TON because this currency is linked to the massive internet platform Telegram, which has about 930 million users — currently the third most downloaded messenger in the world. This user base can be tapped to attract potential clients through services, games, earning opportunities, and advertising payments — all of which Durov discussed at the Token2049 conference in Dubai. In a public letter about the plans to invest in TON, Morehead emphasizes Durov's independence from government authorities, a fact evidenced by his biography, which Durov discussed in an interview with Carlson. These starting positions are expected to help TON stand out among the 23,000 existing cryptocurrencies in the world and soar.
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Uranium Tears
Centrus, the largest nuclear energy company in the United States, has announced its intention to petition relevant government agencies. They highlighted that the ban on Russian uranium imports is unacceptable to them, and they plan to continue supplying their clients while safeguarding the interests of the entire American nuclear industry. The company aims to request the U.S. authorities to make an exception for them.
Nuclear power plants account for 29% of all power stations in the States, yet the country produces little fuel for them. Recently, the U.S. reported that it had managed to produce 200 pounds (90 kg) of enriched uranium for the first time, and by the end of the year, this figure is expected to reach 1 ton. However, this is still nearly 700 times less than what they import from Russia. Therefore, Centrus' request seems quite reasonable, and the chances of achieving it are real. The law approved by the Senate includes a provision allowing exceptions to the ban until 2027 if it serves the "national interests" of the States.
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Xi's trip first results
The visit of the Chinese President to France ended without any significant agreements, while his trip to Eastern Europe proved to be more fruitful. President Macron had hoped to forge closer personal ties with his Chinese counterpart to influence Vladimir Putin to end war in Ukraine. However, China's stance remains unchanged.
In Budapest, Xi Jinping announced a series of new investments, promoting Hungary and Prime Minister Viktor Orban as models for the type of relationship the European Union could have with China. He also promised to build infrastructure in Hungary that would facilitate the distribution of products from Chinese factories across the trading bloc.
Additionally, it seems Xi has persuaded Serbia to become the first European country to join China's efforts to create a coalition challenging the US-led world order.
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No trade peace with China
The Biden administration is planning to significantly increase tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, according to the Wall Street Journal. In a strategic move, these tariffs could be quadrupled, marking a significant escalation in the trade tensions between the United States and China. Additionally, Bloomberg reports that the new tariffs will target not only electric vehicles but also other strategic industries.
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