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New indicator alert! The Stochastic Oscillator helps spot momentum shifts and potential reversals. A bearish signal appears when the price hits a higher high, but the Stochastic makes a lower high — time to watch for a “Sell.” For a bullish signal, look out for the price hitting a lower low while the Stochastic forms a higher low — a potential “Buy” ahead.
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📊Gold consolidates ahead of key U.S. data releases
The gold (XAU) price was relatively unchanged on Wednesday as markets remained cautious ahead of upcoming inflation data and news regarding U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans.
👉 Possible effects for traders
'Bullish trend is still in place... We are not surprised by a period of consolidation ahead of some piece of important data', said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. On Tuesday, Trump initiated an investigation into potential copper import tariffs, aiming to revitalise domestic production of this crucial metal for various sectors. New trade tariffs are recognised as inflationary and may precipitate global economic instability. Thus, safe-haven flows into the precious metals increased over the past months, which explains why XAUUSD has been rising almost uninterruptedly for most of 2025.
In addition, central banks remain key bullion buyers as they aim to diversify their reserves amid the changing geopolitical landscape. 'Central bank behaviour will be key to gold's fortunes, as they have been an important element for demand in recent years', said in a note Frank Watson, market analyst at Kinesis Money.
XAUUSD was falling during the Asian and early European trading sessions as the U.S. dollar rebounded from its recent lows, putting downward pressure on gold. Today, the main focus is on the U.S. macroeconomic reports: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Durable Goods Orders at 1:30 p.m. UTC. Stronger-than-expected figures could delay further rate cuts, pushing XAUUSD slightly lower. Conversely, worse-than-expected results may weaken the greenback and pull the gold price higher. 'Spot gold may revisit its 26 February low of $2,891 per ounce, as the consolidation above this level seems to be shaped into a wedge', said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
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📊 Euro is under pressure as U.S. dollar rebounds
The euro (EUR) lost 0.29% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Wednesday. The greenback strengthened as investors reassessed the condition of the U.S. economy and started to price in more tariffs after President Donald Trump's recent comments.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The greenback fell by nearly 4% from a more than two-year high hit in January due to worries about U.S. economic growth. However, bearish expectations have now been priced in, and traders have started to bet that the upcoming data may be better than anticipated. Thus, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) started to rebound. 'We've had a pretty good sell-off since January, a lot of that's been fueled by the adjustment lower in U.S. real rates, which was largely fueled by the underperforming data we've been seeing, including yesterday. We're at a stage now where we're probably just going to chop around for a bit until we hear more about what's actually happening with tariffs', said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies.
Meanwhile, eurozone economic statistics continue to disappoint. German weaker-than-expected GfK Consumer Climate report indicated that sentiment dropped towards −24.7, its lowest point since March 2024. The eurozone's economic outlook is further complicated by geopolitical uncertainties, such as ongoing global trade tensions and the effects of international conflicts, specifically the one in Ukraine. These factors contribute to high energy costs and make it difficult for the European Central Bank (ECB) to balance high growth with low inflation.
EURUSD was falling during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market focuses on the U.S. macroeconomic reports at 1:30 p.m. UTC: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Durable Goods Orders data. Stronger-than-expected figures could delay rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, pushing EURUSD below 1.04250. Conversely, worse-than-expected results may weaken the greenback and pull EURUSD above 1.05079.
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📊 Japanese yen moves sideways ahead of key reports
The Japanese yen (JPY) was relatively flat against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Wednesday, even as the greenback strengthened due to tariff concerns.
👉 Possible effects for traders
USDJPY has been declining for most of 2025 but found some support in the 148.600 area and has been moving sideways for the past week. A significant factor contributing to the yen's rise is the decline of U.S. Treasury yields. The decrease in yields reduces the attractiveness of holding U.S. dollar-denominated assets, increasing demand for the yen. Simultaneously, Japanese government bond yields have been rising, fuelled by market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue monetary policy normalisation by raising interest rates. This anticipation of higher Japanese yields further strengthens the currency. Atsushi Mimura, Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, reinforced this view by stating that the yen's recent strengthening is consistent with the positive economic data. This indicates that the Japanese government believes the yen appreciation is a consequence of a strengthening domestic economy.
USDJPY was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) moved higher ahead of today's critical macroeconomic reports. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and Durable Goods Orders data are due at 1:30 p.m. UTC and may significantly impact all USD pairs. Stronger-than-expected figures could pause the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, pushing USDJPY above 149.773. Conversely, worse-than-expected results may weaken the greenback and pull USDJPY below 148.570. Additionally, JPY traders should monitor the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) report at 11:30 p.m. UTC. The data is a leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends in Japan and may determine the BoJ's short-term monetary policy path.
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