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AUDUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart
AUDUSD retested the support level of 0.65400
👉Level explanation
AUDUSD has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 0.65400.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 0.65500.
Set your stop loss at 0.65300 below the previous low ($2.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.65700 ($2.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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Coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the term “Black Swan” refers to rare and unpredictable market events, like the 2008 financial crisis. They often lead to massive market swings, catching even the most experienced investors off guard. These events remind us why risk management and diversification are essential in trading.
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🚀 Gold continues to renew historical highs
Yesterday, gold (XAU) reached an all-time high of $2,790 before pulling back slightly towards $2,775. XAUUSD then returned to its previous maximum and has every possibility for further growth.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Yesterday, XAUUSD continued its upward trend due to increased demand for safe haven assets ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Additionally, investors' expectations of a decrease in the U.S. interest rates also contribute to the rise in gold prices. According to Reuters, traders predict a 96% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower short-term interest rates by 0.25% next week. Today, traders will closely monitor the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Based on forecasts, September's core PCE Price Index will increase by 0.3%. Gold attracts investors regardless of its trend, which helps prevent significant corrections.
Meanwhile, China—one of the largest importers of metals in the world—has seen an increase in manufacturing activity. In October, manufacturing activity increased for the first time in six months. This development supports optimism regarding the policy measures implemented by policymakers to help revive the economy.
XAUUSD will likely continue consolidating around the $2,790 resistance level. The pair will await the release of the PCE report before any significant market movement occurs. Higher-than-expected figures may put downward pressure on the metal, while lower numbers will support the bullish trend in gold.
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5 820
🚀 Euro gets a boost from strong German inflation figures
The euro (EUR) gained 0.34% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Wednesday after the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report was slightly weaker than expected.
👉 Possible effects for traders
On Wednesday, the U.S. Commerce Department's advance estimate of GDP showed robust business investment and increased consumer spending but failed to satisfy the market. Investors and traders expected GDP to advance at a 3% pace, but the report revealed annualised growth of 2.8%. According to Reuters, the slight miss reflected a widening trade deficit as businesses boosted imports to satisfy robust demand while inventory accumulation was pared back. The report indicated that the U.S. economy remains strong, making it more likely that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon slow down its rate-cutting campaign. ‘The economy is firing on all cylinders, and unless there is a large external shock or domestic policy error, it is poised to close out the year on a strong note’, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Meanwhile, yesterday's higher-than-expected German Consumer Price Index (CPI) may have further supported the euro. Moreover, traders have started repositioning ahead of the U.S. presidential elections, closing long positions in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and opting to remain on the sidelines until the results are released. On top of that, traders may prefer to refrain from opening large positions ahead of the U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) report due this Friday.
EURUSD was falling slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's key market-moving event is the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The market expects a 0.3% rise in the monthly core PCE Price Index and a 2.6% annual increase. Higher-than-expected figures may trigger a pullback in EURUSD towards 1.08000. Conversely, lower-than-expected results may extend the technical rebound towards 1.09000.
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5 820
📊 USDCAD slows down on oil price rise and DXY's decline
On Wednesday, USDCAD slowed down its growth due to increased oil prices and the decline of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). The pair approached the important resistance level of 1.40000.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The U.S. economic reports indicated a weakening labour market and strong consumer confidence but provided little clarity on the future of interest rates. Thus, the U.S. dollar (USD) decreased, with U.S. Treasury yields following suit. However, some indicators showed a resilient labour market and economy, prompting traders to reduce their expectations for rate cuts. Uto Shinohara, senior investment strategist at Mesirow Currency Management, stated that markets have already factored in a 25-basis-point reduction in interest rates at the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting in November. However, the possibility of another reduction in December remains uncertain. ‘With the focus shifting to employment data, a strong report on nonfarm payrolls would provide the Fed with the justification for a pause in December. While the outcome of the election may have a significant impact on interest rates in the long term, its immediate effect will depend on employment and economic growth’, said Shinohara.
The price of oil, a major export commodity for Canada, increased after data showed that U.S. oil and gasoline inventories unexpectedly decreased last week. Oil futures for the U.S. settled 2.1% higher at $68.61 per barrel. Reuters reported that OPEC+, a group consisting of OPEC, its allies, and Russia, may delay a planned increase in oil production by a month or more in December due to concerns over soft oil demand and increasing supply. The group was scheduled to increase production by 180,000 barrels per day in December but has already delayed the increase since October due to falling prices. According to sources close to OPEC+, the group may announce a decision to postpone the production increase the following week.
USDCAD continues to trade sideways within a range of 1.39000–1.39200 during Asian and early European trading hours. Today, the Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate data comes out at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Higher-than-expected numbers may trigger a downward correction in the pair, while softer data may support the USDCAD.
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This year, Muhurat Trading is expected to occur on Friday, the 1st of November 2024. The timing for the Muhurat trading session is 6 PM to 7 PM.
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USDCAD, 15-minute timeframe char
USDCAD formed a bearish Hammer pattern
👉Level explanation
USDCAD has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 1.39300. Now, the price displays a bearish Hammer pattern.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.39220.
Set your stop loss at 1.39420 above the previous high ($1.44 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.39020 ($1.44 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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Curious about the US economy's health? Dive into the latest advance GDP report, revealing the annualized change in the economy.
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The market wrap for today is here!📉📈
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🚀 The high demand for gold in India has driven prices up
Gold (XAU) rose by 1.17% yesterday and reached new highs. Following a breakout above the resistance level of $2,760, XAUUSD continued to grow steadily. Now, a downward correction from the $2,780.00 mark is likely.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Gold has recently reached a new all-time high as investors seek a safe haven asset to protect their capital. With the U.S. presidential election less than a week away, additional uncertainty and market volatility are likely. The outcome of the U.S. election significantly influences XAUUSD's price. Expectations for a decrease in the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate also support the gold price. The market expects a 25-basis-point (bps) rate reduction by the Fed next week. However, if U.S. economic data show the labour market's resilience and persistent inflation this week, XAUUSD may drop sharply.
A positive factor for the gold market is the persistent high demand from India. Despite the record-high prices, Indian investors have continued to purchase gold in anticipation of the upcoming Dhanteras and Diwali holidays, hoping that the value of the precious metal will continue to grow and provide them with profits amid a slowing stock market. The demand from India could further support XAUUSD.
Several experts and analysts predict that gold will continue its upward trend after a brief correction. The price target is $2,790, after which there may be a slight pullback. Today, important U.S. data on employment change and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report will be released, adding volatility to the market and affecting XAUUSD.
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5 820
📊 China's stimulus and soft U.S. jobs figures support the euro
On Tuesday, the euro (EUR) dropped towards 1.07700 against the U.S. dollar (USD) but later recovered all the losses and finished the day essentially unchanged.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Worse-than-expected U.S. labour market statistics pushed EURUSD higher yesterday. The U.S. Labor Department's JOLTS report revealed a significant decline in job openings in September—the lowest level in over three and a half years. September's data and a downward revision of the previous month's figures suggest a continued weakening of the U.S. labour market. ‘We're still seeing the same pattern of a slowdown in jobs that has been the overall theme for the last few months, even if September's nonfarm payroll (NFP) number was well above expectations’, said Helen Given, associate director of trading at Monex USA. At the same time, U.S. consumer confidence increased to a nine-month high in October, but investors have largely ignored the data. Still, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is on track for its largest monthly gain in over two and a half years. It's currently near a three-month high, and traders are unlikely to open big trades ahead of next week's U.S. election and this week's U.S. economic data—Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index report on Thursday and Friday's NFP report.
The euro grew further following the news that China is contemplating the issuance of over 10 trillion yuan in additional debt to reinvigorate its fragile economy. Given China's status as the eurozone's primary export market, this could benefit European economies. Still, investors expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to remain on its rate-cutting path and price in an 89% chance of four 25-basis-point (bps) reductions by the end of March 2025. The chances for a similar move by the Federal Reserve (Fed) are slightly less than 80%. This fundamental divergence in monetary policy expectations continues to exert a bearish pressure on EURUSD.
EURUSD was essentially unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, investors will focus on German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due at 9:00 a.m. and 1:00 p.m. UTC. Additionally, the U.S. GDP report is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. UTC. These releases may add volatility to today's trading session. Key levels to watch are support at 1.07640 and the resistance at 1.08400.
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5 820
📊 USDJPY slows down ahead of BOJ meeting
Yesterday, USDJPY didn't break the 154.000 resistance level and finally went sideways, gaining 0.04% by the end of the day ahead of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) meeting on Thursday.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The BOJ will likely keep rates unchanged at the meeting on 31 October. With weaker exports and household spending in summer and recent political changes in Japan, the central bank is unlikely to change the interest rates. BOJ might only hike the rates if economic data strengthens and inflation stays above 2%. However, many in Tokyo think the regulator could still raise rates before the year ends. The market will be watching for clues about the BOJ monetary policy plans.
Meanwhile, economic data shows some resilience. Tuesday's jobs report showed some strength, which could lead to more spending. Output is still weaker, but there's hope that the weaker Japanese yen (JPY) and increased export orders will help boost growth. Auto production should recover, too. While recent data shows some pullback in inflation, with domestic and imported goods prices still rising, most people expect any dips to be temporary. Prices in Japan won't keep falling, given the rise in commodity, energy, and global goods prices.
USDJPY continues to trade sideways during Asian and early European trading hours. The most important event is tomorrow's BOJ rate decision at 3:00 a.m. Still, today's U.S. ADP Employment Change report at 12:15 p.m. UTC may influence the pair. A higher-than-expected figure should be taken as bullish for the USDJPY, while a lower-than-expected reading may push the pair into a downward correction.
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