EquiChain Wealth

Rationale to be bullish / Accumulation zone 1) March End / Year end - selling pressure if any will likely to get exhausted by today or latest by 27-Mar-24 2) View remain bullish with General election view 3) Earnings & guidance - no negative news - Positive with medium term view 4) US Fed meeting outcome - 3 rate cut in 2024 — view posted on 22-Mar-24 Nifty @ 22721 & Banknifty @ 48689 & VIX @ 11.51 We have been in accumulation zone since this post and we continue to maintain bullish view. Rationale shared - for individual stock and sectors we have posted view on Banking & IT stocks last week and today we have posted view on defense & Metal stocks. We are not expecting any fireworks but our strategy is to play only long position. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

View on IT Stocks - Bullish with neutral weight and we remain optimistic with view on INFY result & guidance. TCS @ 4003 INFY @ 1502 HCLTEC @ 1551 LTTS @ 5734 Prefer to follow allocation strategy and we would prefer long position in F&O with hedge. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Equichain Valuation Matrix – Ahead of result season Q4FY24 – Defense & Metal Going into result season for Q4FY24 and FY24, we will analyze stock price performance since 2-Feb-24, after market reacted to mini-budget (Vote-on-Account) ahead of general election which is now scheduled from 19-Apr-24 and result will be announced 4-Jun-24. Last week we have covered banks and IT stocks and this week we will cover defense & Metal stocks Equichain Valuation Matrix: Strategy on defense stocks • Focus on volume growth & order book will provide fresh triggers. • Defense order other than domestic market will be key positive trigger. Now many defenses contract are done with government to government rather than government to company – so strong & stable government will provide fresh triggers. • Continuation of current government post general election will provide next round of rally in defense stock and we expect that rally will be broad based and earnings will provide fresh round of rally. Equichain Valuation Matrix: Strategy on Metal stocks • Interest rate heading southwards is positive for metal stocks as it would boost risk-on sentiment. • China continues its effort to boost economy and recovery is seen in metal prices along with Gold & Silver prices. • Domestic consumption for infrastructure remains strong and it is one of the key factors for metal companies in India. Metal stocks would provide good opportunity in case of any correction in near term, positive trigger such as soft interest rate, China’s stimulus package and domestic growth story are all the positive factors with medium to long term view or we can see trend remains positive with 4 – 8 quarters view. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Trade Setup for 8-Apr-24 Indian market: RBI MPC Policy was unchanged as most policy rates remain unchanged. Banknifty outperformed major indices while Mid-cap & Small-cap rally continues. Global Market: U.S. market rallied around 1% on Friday as Gold at life-time high, crude oil rising on geo-political tension. There is some cool-off in Crude oil prices as no major escalation on geo-political tension. Technical View: Fresh break-out on Banknifty above 48161 which open upside up to 49561 and 48161 to act as immediate support level. Nifty trading around 22525 - an important support level. Market View: Weekly gain in Mid-cap index was by 4% & Small-cap index was around 7%, we expect some profit booking and result season will provide fresh direction. GIFT Nifty @ 22655 Vs 22595 Nifty future previous close.

Last week – review Going into trade for 1st week of April – we had positive view and maintain our bullish view as we see March end factored already played out and weekly gain in Mid-cap 100 & Small-cap 100 are indicating the same. RBI MPC policy outcome on 5-Apr-24 – key rates were kept unchanged and no major change in policy stance. Global cues continue to focus on U.S. economic data and actions was in commodity market as Gold manage to cross $2300 and WTI Crude oil @ $86.73 & Brent Crude oil @ $90.86. Technical Insight Nifty RSI @ 69.81 & RSI average @ 69.38. Nifty RSI near 70 level and is currently trading around 22525 resistance level. Nifty break above this level could open upside up to 23098 level and Nifty @ 21995 to act as support level for this week. Banknifty RSI @ 62.01 & RSI average @ 57.34. Banknifty after Friday’s move can be seen as positive and heading towards 49561 and support level comes at 48161 & 47280. Approach on Technical: Market likely to follow technical as now market will be reacting to corporate earnings and economic data. Nifty @ 21995 & Banknifty @ 47280 to act as important support level for this week and fresh break-out can be seen once Nifty crosses 22525. Banknifty close at 48493 on Friday is above important resistance level at 48161. Banknifty ‘s move can be seen as positive break-out and heading towards 49561. Indices are heading towards fresh break-out and higher level are expected in coming weeks. Nifty could test 23098 & Banknifty could test 49561. Fundamental Insight RBI MPC Policy 5-Apr-24 - Outcome • RBI MPC keeps rate unchanged at 6.50% with 5:1 majority. • Marginal standing facility stands at 6.75% and standard deposit policy stands at 6.25%. The MPC also decided to remain focused on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation progressively aligns to the target, while supporting growth. 1) RBI To Review Liquidity Coverage Ratio Framework for Banks 2) India Forex Reserves at New High Of $645.6 Billion Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy We will now focus on earnings season and global cues; we maintain bullish view ahead of result season. TCS to begin result season on 12-Apr-24 and corporate earnings to pick from 3rd week. We have maintained bullish view and will continue to use any correction to deploy fund. After RBI MPC policy yesterday, Banking stocks are well poised and see upside from current level. We would be watching closely IT stocks after ACCENTURE revised guidance lower for full year in 3rd week of March 2024, IT stocks has corrected and last quarterly result for IT stocks indicated that worst may be behind us. We have bullish view on market with medium to long term view with two key reasons, first is political stability will boost economic growth and second will be that interest rate in U.S. are moving downward, but timing and quantum of rate cut remains uncertain. Any negative surprise in corporate earnings can bring correction but we would use any correction due to any reason which we may see as temporary effect, we would use this opportunity to deploy fund. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆

Global Market – Focus shift to timing of rate cut by U.S. Fed Today we will focus on how market is trying to read U.S. economic data as usually first week of any month will important as key U.S. economic data gets released. Gold continues to rally and is currently trading around $2300, last week we have discussed how gold prices moved from 2019 and is trading at life time high. Fed fund rate monitor indicates probability of 61% first rate cut by U.S. Fed in June 2024. U.S. Economic data – mixed data U.S. economic data released this week indicates mix picture and market is reading strong data as U.S. Fed may delay to cut interest rate and weak data is positive for rate cut. ISM Manufacturing prices released on 1-Apr-24 came at 55.8 Vs estimate 53.3 and ISM Manufacturing PMI came at 50.3 Vs estimate of 48.50. U.S. Fed meeting – Expectation from next two meeting 1) U.S. Fed meeting on 1-May-24 – Expectation – Keep rate unchanged & Commentary will be important 2) U.S. Fed meeting on 12-Jun-24 – 61% probability of 25-bps rate cut as on 4-Apr-24. Market is not expecting any change in policy in next U.S. Fed meeting which is scheduled on 1-May-24 and Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated for more data and confirmation and take any pre-mature rate cut. Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion We have discussed that the incoming U.S. economic data, price reaction of gold, US 10-year bond yield and Dollar index is indicating mix picture. Market trend very much remain unclear and incoming economic data will have impact its decision on upcoming U.S. Fed meeting on interest rate. We believe that interest rate is peaked and rate cut will start sooner or later and it is a matter of time. We see market is preparing rate cut for 12-Jun-24 meeting and we expect further boost to risk-on sentiment. Gold inching towards $2400 & higher and other risk-on asset classes such as equity & commodity will continue to rally unless there is big disappointment from earnings season. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆

RBI MPC policy @ 10:00 AM 1) No change in interest rate expected. 2) Stance - likely to maintain - "Withdrawal of Accommodation" Market going into RBI MPC policy event with no expectation - We expect Banking stocks could do well post RBI Policy announcement. Can accumulate with Result view Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Trade Setup for 4-Apr-24 Indian market: Major indices closed flat after weak opening from global cues while mid-cap & small-cap continues to do well. Global cues: US Market recovered and closed flat after weak ISM Manufacturing data and US Fed chair Jerome Powell said will wait for more evidence of rate cut before cutting rate. Gold @ 2300 at fresh life-time high. RBI MPC Meeting from 3 to 5 April 2024, outcome tomorrow. No change is expected from RBI MPC Policy tomorrow. Market View: GIFT Nifty indicating positive opening of 70 - 80 points, momentum in Mid-cap & Small-cap will continue its positive momentum

IT Sector - Key factors from last quarter • IT result declared in January 2024 for Q3FY24 indicated that worst may be over for IT companies and IT companies rallied in January 2024 reacting to result. • ACCENTURE result declared on 21-Mar-24, which guided for negative 1% to positive 3% growth in revenue for next financial year resulted in weakness in IT stocks in last 1 – 2 weeks. • INFY ‘s last quarterly result – guided for revenue growth from 1.50% to 2% and margin in range of 20% - 22% was taken positively by market. Equichain Valuation Matrix: View & Strategy on IT stocks – ahead of Q4FY24 result Our focus will remain on INFY result and next year guidance. At the time of Q3FY24 result – INFY management sound optimistic about worst may be behind us. ACCENTURE weak guidance for next financial year will raise the concern again as yet another year of no revenue growth will be negative for IT stocks. We remain cautiously optimistic but remain watchful as TCS will come out with result on 12-Apr-24 & INFY to declare result on 18-Apr-24. IT stocks has underperformed after 2-Feb-24 till date but January 2024 was one of the best months of IT companies in recent times. Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg

Equichain Valuation Matrix – Ahead of result season Q4FY24 Going into result season for Q4FY24 and FY24, we will analyze stock price performance since 2-Feb-24, after market reacted to mini-budget (Vote-on-Account) ahead of general election which is now scheduled from 19-Apr-24 and result will be announced 4-Jun-24. Banking Sector – Key factors from last quarter • Credit growth has been strong during Q4FY24, margin remain key concern for private banks. • SBIN – last quarterly result beat market estimate and it remains once of the outperformer since 2-Feb-24. • HDFCBANK, AXISBANK & KOTKABANK underperform the its peer, comparison between select private banks and SBIN under out watchlist. Equichain Valuation Matrix: View & Strategy on Banking stocks – ahead of Q4FY24 result We remain bullish on banking stocks as credit growth and government spending on infrastructure will continue as we expect continuity and political stability. We would accumulate banks stock in case of any correction due to weak result or global factor. We believe any pressure due in March 2024 will be over and quarterly business updates from HDFCBANK and other financial lenders will set the trend this week.

Trade Setup for 3-Apr-24 Indian market: Major indices closed flat while Mid-cap & Small-cap rallied around 1%. HDFCBANK, SBIN & M&M were major gainers & major losers were ICICIBANK, TCS & HCLTECH. Global cues: U.S. Market closed with cut of around 1% on major indices on strong U.S. data JOLTS jobs openings. Gold price continue to rally as it move towards $2300 on strong demand from China and geo-political uncertainty. Currently market is reacting negatively on strong U.S. economic data and weak economic data is taken positively. Technical View: Indices are showing sign of some consolidation as Nifty @ 22290 & Banknifty @ 47026 are important support level Market View: Any consolidation could be seen as buying opportunity as major indices trade around its recent high. Mid-cap & Small-cap is showing sign of recovery. GIFT Nifty indicating gap-down opening of around 150 points.

Nifty @ 22519 & Banknifty @ 47568 & VIX @ 12.57 View posted on 22-Mar-24 Rationale to be bullish / Accumulation zone 1) March End / Year end - selling pressure if any will likely to get exhausted by today or latest by 27-Mar-24 2) View remain bullish with General election view 3) Earnings & guidance - no negative news - Positive with medium term view 4) US Fed meeting outcome - 3 rate cut in 2024 Disclaimer: https://bitly.ws/3a3Tg ————— We are in trend - Buy on Dip Our strategy would to bring investment level up to 90% Defense Sector, Infrastructure including metal to have bullish view. IT stocks - dependent on INFY result - after weak ACCENTURE guidance.

Trade Setup for 1-Apr-24 Indices on Thursday saw profit booking in 2nd half as expiry for March series weighted as indices attempted for new high. Indian market will continue to witness positive trend as global cues continue to remain positive. Global cues remains positive on strong economic data as gold is current trading at record high. Technical view: Nifty @ 22145 & Banknifty @ 46813 in near term will play important support level & upside target on Nifty @ 22788 & Banknifty @ 48202 could act as resistance level. GIFT Nifty @ 22531 Vs Nifty future previous close at 22488

Last week – review Only 3-days trading week, a holiday shorten week with F&O expiry and end of Financial-year make the market volatile but all the indices manage to close the week with minor gains. We believe this week will provide an opportunity to buy on dip and indices manage to test higher end of the range mentioned in last week’s report. Global cues continue to remain positive, but indices closed flat as actions was on Gold which closed the week around $2250 and Crude oil which has seen positive trend in recent week. Technical Insight Nifty RSI @ 57.64 & RSI average @ 51.45. Nifty tested double top around 22525 and manage to close above 22290 which we see as positive trigger. Nifty @ 22145 as support level this week and 22788 on upside. Banknifty RSI @ 55.37 & RSI average @ 50.78. Banknifty is attempting positive move and manage to close above 46813 level. Banknifty @ 48161 to act as resistance level. Approach on Technical: Technical setup has turned positive and any pressure due to March end is over and market. Nifty @ 22145 & Banknifty @ 46813 in near term will play important support level & upside target on Nifty @ 22788 & Banknifty @ 48202 could act as resistance level. We expect indices to positive momentum on indices as RSI & RSI average are showing rising trend. Nifty range for this week seen at 22145 to 22788 & Banknifty range for this week seen as 46813 to 48161. Fundamental Insight 1) Government Plans to Borrow Rs 7.5 Lakh Crore from Market in First Half Of FY25 2) Government's Borrowing Plan Likely To Support Easing Bond Yields 3) Current Account Deficit Eases To $10.5 Billion In October–December 2023 4) India Can Push Growth Close To 9% By Implementing More Reforms: Arvind Panagariya 5) FY24 Advance Tax Mop-Up Stands At Rs 9.11 Lakh Crore Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy Now the focus will shift to corporate earnings which start in two weeks from now and market will be positioning itself for election, result of election will come out on 4-Jun-24 and market has seen healthy rally since 3-Dec-23 when state election result was declared when BJP came strong the most political analyst expected. We do believe that market has not factored in 400 + seat for NDA and if there is such outcome, market could see further upside. Our strategy for this week is to accumulate on any correction and have stock specific view. RBI MPC Meeting for April is scheduled from 3 to 5 April 2024. RBI is expected to maintain status and no major announcement is expected. We would like to bring exposure to as high as 90% in coming 1 – 3 weeks and remain invested, we do not see any major correction in near future with corporate earnings or schedule event. Market is expected to give fresh break-out which could trigger another 7% – 10% rally in next 1 – 3 months where election result outcome will also be driving the market. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆

Global Market – GOLD above $2200 & look back at gold prices from 2019 This week, we will discuss gold which is trading comfortably above $2200 & journey of gold prices from 2019 to 2024 from $1600 to $2250. U.S. market which is trading near life-time high to finish the first quarter. Global risk-on sentiment seen evident as all the assets class are moving higher. Bitcoin is trading above $70000 while crude oil price also spiked in last few weeks, although crude oil price still remains well within comfort level – WTI Crude @ $83 & Brent Crude oil @ $87. Gold above $2200 & moving towards $2400 or higher Gold was trading around $1550 in 2019 before COVID-19. Gold prices started moving higher since December 2019, when world starting fearing some big uncertainty as it was early days of COVID-19 but till February 2020 – gold prices was trading around $1600. Another round of up-move in gold prices were seen after Russia-Ukraine crisis which started in February 2022 and Gold prices was again trading above $2000 level to test previous top made after COVID-19 after sanctions on Russia by western countries. Fall in Gold prices from April 2022 to October 2022 Recent interest rate hike by U.S. Fed is the fastest pace of rate hike seen in last 4 decades as inflation was also at 4-decades high. Gold prices from around $2000 moved below $1700 and stabilized around $1800 to $2000 for last 12 months from January 2023 to December 2023. Gold prices – fresh trigger after U.S. Fed ‘s comment in December 2023 – interest rate has peaked. When U.S. Fed singled that interest rate has peaked and now any cut in interest rate will depend on incoming data. U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also signaled that interest rate cut will depend on incoming data and will do only after they see confirm trend of inflation moving towards 2% mark. U.S. Fed has long term inflation target of 2%. Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion What is the key reason for gold prices to move in either direction 1) Gold prices move higher – When there is any geo-political tension & vise-a-versa. 2) Gold price move higher – Any uncertainty over economy or growth, as it was seen during first lockdown in March 2020 & vise-a-versa. 3) Gold prices move higher – When global interest rate is moving downward or interest rate globally are considerably low – Vise-a-versa. Currently, geo-political tension is seen in some part of world – Russia & Ukraine and Israel & Gaza. Economic growth in China is low and uncertain and third important reason is that the interest rate guidance given by global central banks such as U.S. Fed, ECB & BOE – for first rate cut in June 2024. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆