EquiChain Wealth

Nifty @ 22943 & Banknifty @ 49273 & VIX @ 23.80 We expect decisive move only on 3rd & 4th June - reaction to EXIT poll & election result. This week volatility is all about pre-positioning ahead of D-Day. Our strategy this week is to keep exposure around 75% to 80% and we continue to keep balance approach with optimistic view on market. Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

AXISBANK @ 1189 At fresh 52-week high Banknifty on fire 🔥🔥 We are expecting Banknifty to lead if in case of positive outcome on 4-Jun-24 We will prefer to go by our strategy Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

We are very bullish on Private banks with a view on General election result on 4-Jun-24 1) Stable government, stable policy & continuity in policy 2) Banking system in the life-line of economy and robust economy will help banks. 3) Private banks has underperform in recent months & focus was on all PSU 's 4) VIX @ 22.85 - indicates huge premium built-up - options premium and expect premium cooling-off post event. Please note we are going in with bullish view with 4-Jun-24 event and we do follow our capital allocation strategy. We see this as binary event and any position in F&O should be hedged & we would allocate small amount of capital from existing portfolio (if any). Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

Banknifty looks far stronger as compared to Nifty and could open upside up to 51490 on higher side which is currently around 5% from — from weekly report Nifty @ 22992 & Banknifty @ 49315 & VIX @ 22.83 We believe - focus will shift to Banking stocks as stable government, continuity in policy and growing economy will help Banking stocks. PSU 's has seen sharp run-up and could see further momentum on 4-Jun-24 till general election result - but our strategy to book part profit. Fresh addition only in private banks.............

Last week – review Indices closed at fresh life-time high as RBI declared 2.10 lakh crore dividend as provide huge positive sentiment to market and particularly banking stocks. Major indices rallied around 2% while Small-cap index closed flat. VIX is currently trading at 21.71, highest level seen in last 1 year ahead of general election result on 4-Jun-24. Global market had mixed session this week as DOW30 closed with cut 2.33% while NASDAQ gained by 1.41% as NVIDIA declared result above market estimate. U.S. market continues to focus in interest rate trends and taking cues from economic data. Technical Insight Nifty moved above 22775 is open further upside up to 23251 & 23501 and now 22368 to act as important support level. Nifty RSI @ 67.77 & RSI average @ 58.68 and once Nifty manages to cross 70 level momentum is expected to gain speed as market is headed for event. Banknifty looks far stronger as compared to Nifty and could open upside up to 51490 on higher side which is currently around 5% from current level. Banknifty @ 47897 to act as important support level in near term Approach on Technical: F&O expiry could play its role next week along with build ahead of D-day that is 4-Jun-24 – General election result. This week’s up move can be seen as fresh break-out and which could bring Nifty to 23500 & Banknifty to 51490 on higher side while key support on Nifty comes at 22368 & Banknifty @ 47897. We remain positive from technical setup and expect some build-up ahead of next two weeks event. Fundamental Insight RBI To Pay Record Rs 2.1 Lakh Crore Dividend To Government For FY24 The Reserve Bank of India will pay Rs 2.1 lakh crore—the highest-ever surplus—as dividend to the central government for fiscal 2024, the central bank said in a press release on Wednesday. India PMI Data: Private Sector Output Sees Strongest Expansion In Almost 14 Years May saw the headline HSBC Flash India Composite Output Index—a seasonally adjusted index that measures the change in the combined output of India's manufacturing and service sectors—rise from a final reading of 61.5 in April to 61.7, which indicated the third-strongest rate of expansion in close to 14 years. Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy Market after testing fresh lift-time high this week on positive news on RBI declaring dividend of 2.10 lakh crore has provided fresh trigger and we expect positive momentum will continue. Our strategy this week is to keep exposure around 75% to 80% and we continue to keep balance approach with optimistic view on market. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆 Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

Global Market – NVIDIA result & U.S. Interest rate in focus This week, we will focus on NVIDIA which declared its result and stock split provided trigger for chip-makers and we will also discuss how U.S. market continues to focus on economic data which is not providing any clear direction as hope of first-rate cut remains in September 2024. NVIDIA – Q1 result beats market estimate & announce stock split NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is an American semiconductor company and a leading global manufacturer of high-end graphics processing units (GPUs). Based in Santa Clara, California, NVIDIA holds approximately 80% of the global market share in GPU semiconductor chips as of 2023. NVIDA announce its Q1 result on 22-May-24, here are some of the highlights • Record quarterly revenue of $26.0 billion, up 18% from Q4 and up 262% from a year ago. • Record quarterly Data Center revenue of $22.6 billion, up 23% from Q4 and up 427% from a year ago • Ten-for-one forward stock split effective June 7, 2024 • Quarterly cash dividend raised 150% to $0.01 per share on a post-split basis “The next industrial revolution has begun — companies and countries are partnering with NVIDIA to shift the trillion-dollar traditional data centers to accelerated computing and build a new type of data center — AI factories — to produce a new commodity: artificial intelligence,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA. “AI will bring significant productivity gains to nearly every industry and help companies be more cost- and energy-efficient, while expanding revenue opportunities. U.S. Market continues to focus on interest rate. Market is reacting to U.S. economic data which continues to show strong and resilient economy and inflation is now stable around 3.4% to 3.5% whereas U.S. Fed is eyeing a long-term inflation at 2%. Currently U.S. Fed has kept interest rate at 5.25% to 5.50% U.S. bond yield have trading in range and around 4.60% since its strong CPI & Core CPI Inflation data in April and 1-May-24 FOMC meeting which pushed expectation of first rate cut from June to September 2024 meeting. Dollar Index @ 104.65 Dollar Index which is composite index of six major currencies compared with U.S. Dollar also moves on interest rate in U.S. and other 6 six currencies / countries based on their interest, inflation and economic outlook. Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion No major economic data was released this week as U.S. CPI & Core CPI data was release last week, which came in line with estimate. Market will be waiting for more economic data before any decisive move. When we combine the global factors, we do believe that is giving mix signals. We would be focusing on equity market which is trading at fresh high and gold which is also trading at life-time high. We see this as early signs of market factoring in lower interest rate, economic growth and geo-political tensioned could also get eased out. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆 Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

Why only PSU 's from defense, Rail & Infrastructure are buzzing in trade while many private blue-chip companies are stable ? Our view: This rally is purely on optimism of BJP / NDA getting comfortable majority and we have earlier also mentioned that after 5th phase of voting clear trend could emerge. Market rally in PSU 's is expected to continue till 4th June - Election result day. We strong believe - existing investment in blue-chip companies should be kept and we might increase as in long term - earnings will be back in focus. Keep balance between PSU 's & Private companies along with proper sector allocation - Capital allocation strategy. Short term trade / Position - Based on trend and any position in F&O should be strictly hedged. Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

Nifty @ 22699 & Banknifty @ 48304 & VIX @ 21.32 Nifty less than 100 points away from its recent high - Fresh break-out could trigger further rally. We strongly believe - companies other than PSU 's or stocks which has so far underperformed and are index heavy's could take the lead from here on................ Our strategy ................. Positional / medium term / Long term portfolio - Allocation around 75% - 80%. Short term trade / Position - Based on trend and any position in F&O should be strictly hedged. Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

IT & Banks to focus now as PSU 's & Defense have seen sharp up move. Stocks which we like at current level are LT INFY, TCS & LTTS AXISBANK, ICICIBANK & SBIN from PSU 's Rally in PSU 's & Defense stocks likely to continue till election result but we would follow our capital allocation strategy.............View remain bullish but part profit booking is good option and part of our strategy. Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

IT & Private Banks - Mostly trading in range & PSU 's is buzzing in trade for last few days. We would be looking to increase weight in IT & Private banks and prefer to book some profit in PSU 's which has seen sharp up move. PSU 's - View remain bullish with 4-Ju-24 election result day. Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

SBIN @ 832.50 Fresh break-out above 835 Current trading around resistance zone...............we see stock could see fresh up move above 835 This stocks is part of our Equichain Flexi-cap Concept & we would prefer to follow our capital allocation strategy. ———— Positional / medium term / Long term portfolio - Allocation around 75% - 80%. Short term trade / Position - Based on trend and any position in F&O should be strictly hedged. Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

Our strategy this week is to keep exposure around 75% to 80% and we continue to keep balance approach with optimistic view on market. — From weekly report We would continue to follow our capital allocation strategy. Positional / medium term / Long term portfolio - Allocation around 75% - 80%. Short term trade / Position - Based on trend and any position in F&O should be strictly hedged. Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

Today's is the 5th phase of voting & after today's voting - polling will be completed on 79% of seats as next two phase 57 + 57 seats will go for voting. We expect market to see build-up ahead of general election result on 4-Jun-24.

Wait For June 4... The Stock Market Will Get Tired Of Action: PM Modi Read more at: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/exclusive/wait-for-june-4the-stock-market-will-get-tired-of-action-pm-modi?src=p1 Copyright © NDTV Profit

Last week – review Last week started on weak note after indices corrected as sentiment turn negative due to reports from SATTA Bazar indicating less seat for BJP than 350 -370, but things turn around after Mr. Amit Shah ‘s statement showing confidence in BJP / NDA managing to cross comfortable majority. Defense stocks / PSU ‘s stock rally after positive corporate earnings. Global market made fresh 52-week high as U.S. CPI & Core CPI data came below estimate keeping hope of rate cut alive in September 2024 FOMC meeting. Technical Insight Nifty continue to trade in range of 1000 points from 21800 to 22800 for last two months. Nifty continue to indicate sideways move ahead of major event – General election result on 4-Jun-24. Banknifty is strong on chart as compared to Nifty and current trading in range of 46800 – 49100. Banknifty likely to see resistance around 48292 to 48574 and major up move expected only after these levels are crossed. Approach on Technical: Market will react to 5th phase of voting due on 20-May-24 and as we head closer to general election result, expect volatility to increase. Nifty range for this week is expected to be 22117 to 22775 with positive view from last week. Banknifty range for this week is expected to be 47062 to 49057. We expect indices to trade in range for next 1 – 2 weeks and decisive move is expected only in 1st week of June 2024. Fundamental Insight 1) India's Trade Deficit Widens To $19.1 Billion In April 2) India May Gain As US Hikes Tariffs Steeply On Chinese EVs, Batteries, Medical Supplies 3) Southwest Monsoon Likely To Reach Kerala By May 31, Says IMD Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy For next two weeks, market will be driven by news and sentiment on general election result, exit poll and probability of winning margin of BJP / NDA. Market is expecting majority for BJP / NDA and near volatility will focus on margin of winning. Our strategy this week is to keep exposure around 75% to 80% and we continue to keep balance approach with optimistic view on market. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆 Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

Global Market – U.S. Market at record high – What next? This week we will discuss U.S. market and other asset class which are back at fresh life-time high or near to its high seen in March 2024. Market was expecting first rate cut by U.S. Fed in June 2024 FOMC meeting. After strong CPI & Core CPI data on 10-Apr-24, global risk-off resulted in profit booking in equity, gold and U.S. bond yield & Dollar index rallied. U.S. Market at fresh high NASDAQ is currently trading at fresh life-time high and around 16695 which is good 200 points above the high seen in March 2024. Tech companies’ earnings boosted the market sentiment and weak economic data helped indices gain momentum. GOLD @ $2400 Major reason for up move in gold was seen after market started factoring rate by U.S. Fed after December 2023 meeting, when it indicated that rate hike may done for now and now the question will be on rate cut and the timing of rate was in focus. Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion Gold and other precious metal take cues from interest rate and economic uncertainty can be caused due to recession or geo-political tension. Currently both these factors are in favor of gold prices could remain strong in near future. Metal prices take cues from China as it is biggest consumer as well as producer for metal and China’s is currently facing weak economic. China after stringent lockdown is taking steps to boost economic activity and to boost economic recovery. When we combine the global factors, we do believe that is giving mix signals. We would be focusing on equity market which is trading at fresh high and gold which is also trading at life-time high. We see this as early signs of market factoring in lower interest rate, economic growth and geo-political tensioned could also get eased out. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆 Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf