EquiChain Wealth

Last week – review Market traded in range with positive bias and recorded gains of around 1% on major indices and Mid-cap & Small-cap gain by around 2.4% to 3.4%. HDFCBANK was in focus this week as share holding pattern showed FII holding decline giving hope of MSCI review in August 2024. HDFCBANK business updates for last quarter was weak. Technical Insight Nifty RSI @ 72.50 & RSI average @ 69.31. Nifty range for this could be seen as 23999 to 24506 and major move could be seen once Nifty above goes above 24506. Banknifty RSI @ 62.62 & RSI Average @ 65.33. Banknifty looks weak as compared to Nifty on chart and immediate support could be seen at 50813 while 53180 to act as resistance level. Nifty RSI & RSI average is currently around 70 which indicates consolidation in near term could be seen as buying opportunity before next major up move could be seen. Banknifty on chart looks weak as compared to Nifty. Banknifty near term support level comes at 51718 & 50813. Banknifty above 53180 could trigger fresh positive momentum. Strategy on indices this week will be take fresh long position only after Nifty @ 24506 & Banknifty @ 53180 is crossed. Fundamental Insight 1) S&P 500 Hits Fresh Highs as US Yields Sink on Jobs: Markets Wrap 2) India's Forex Reserves Decline To $651.9 Billion 3) Kotak Arm, Five Other Entities Could Face Money Laundering Probe Post SEBI Show Cause Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy PSU stocks was back in focus as we see this as pre-budget rally. Railway and Infrastructure stocks of PSU ‘s and private sector could be in focus as budget is expected to provide continuity on its spending on infrastructure. Any correction correct / consolidate in market in coming weeks would been seen as buying opportunity. We remain optimistic going into budget as we see government will focus on growth and fiscal prudence at the same time as tax collection is robust and surplus dividend declared by RBI is positive. Next week U.S. CPI & Core CPI data will remain in focus and TCS will starting earnings season on 11-Jul-24. We remain positive on IT stock and any positive surprise in earnings could trigger fresh rally in IT stocks. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆 Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

Global Market – U.S. Economic data will guide interest rate cut in September Fed meeting? Today we will be discussing U.S. economic data and focus on interest rate cut can be expected in September FOMC meeting? Gold is back to $2400 and other key indicator such as US 10-year bond yield & Dollar index seen some cool-off. U.S. Economic data of this week This week key economic data which was released was JOLTS Jobs opening which came slightly above estimate while ADP Non-farm employment change was week. ISM Services PMI also contracted. Average hourly earnings remain stable while unemployment rate increased to 4.10%. U.S. economic data remain mixed indicates stable economy as market participants will take cues on interest rate cut. Gold @ $2399 Gold was trading below $2350 last week and closed this week around $2400 on weak economic data giving boost to early rate cut by U.S. Fed. Geo-political situation remains stable with no fresh news this week which could impact gold prices. U.S. Economic data in focus – Next week Next week will be important as we start next week with Fed chair Jerome Powell testimony and treasury sec Janet Yellen also speaks on 9-Jul-24. U.S. CPI & Core CPI data released on 11-Jul-24 and PPI & Core PPI data on 12-Jul-24. Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion When we look at U.S. economic data released this week and important event and economic data due in next week, will provide cues on interest rate as Fed fund rate monitor tool now indicating 72.2% probability of rate cut in September 2024 FOMC meeting. In last U.S. Fed meeting in June 2024, Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated only one rate cut in 2024 in later part of the year. Gold & Bond yield move is indicating some hope of interest rate cut in September 2024 meeting and we see next week to be eventful and important for global asset class and sentiment. We remain hopeful as early trends shows risk-on sentiment to be back. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆 Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

Bajaj Finance Q1FY25 Updates AUM grew 31% YoY/7% QoQ to Rs 3.54 lakh cr - 26-28% guidance New loans booked grew by 10%/39% qoQ to 10.97 million Customer franchises as of June 2024 stood at 88.11 million – up 5% QoQ #Bajajfinance #Q1FY25 https://x.com/soumeet_sarkar/status/1808516138118066510?t=d2zz3nCM5P-np0dVX_5MIA&s=19

IT stocks moving steadily higher and focus will remain on earnings season. INFY @ 1615 TCS @ 4003 HCLTECH @ 1477 LTIM @ 5518 LTTS @ 5060 TECHM @ 1482 Accumulation zone Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

BAJFINANCE @ 7270 In focus - Ahead of quarterly business updates. View: Bullish & as higher growth expected over summer season. Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

This levels could act as resistance level Nifty @ 24160 - Currently at 24111 Banknifty @ 53180 - Current at 52549 As mentioned - we will use correction / consolidation to add long and not take any short or bearish position in our any concept. Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

IT stocks - are trading at day's high IT result to begin from 11-Jul-24 with TCS earnings. HCLTECH on 12-Jul-24 & INFY on 18-Jul-24 We have turned bullish on IT stocks and would prefer to add as per out capital allocation strategy...........view result & Positional. Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

Nifty @ 24070 & Banknifty @ 42436 & VIX @ 14.04 Fresh buying to be preferred on Correction / Consolidation, we would avoid chasing stocks in momentum. Medium term / Budget view remains bullish - So no selling in any of existing position unless the stock prices have seen huge run-up. IT & Banks remain top picks & Mid-cap & Small-cap with budget view in focus. Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

Last week – review This week large cap stocks remain in focus as Reliance moved from below 2900 to above 3100. JIO finally increase telecom tariff after spectrum auction was completed. Mid-cap & Small-cap continues to underperform and manage to close this week with gains of around half a percent. Banknifty which outperformed in first half of this week underperformed on Friday. Global market ended the week flat as all major indices traded in narrow range in absence of any major news. U.S. Core PCE index came at 0.10% in-line with estimate of 0.10%. Technical Insight Indices are looking over-bought and some correction / consolidation would be healthy. Nifty range for this week 23272 to 24739 and Nifty @ 24160 to act as major resistance. Nifty short range seen at 23859 to 24160 and Nifty move from this range could test lower or upper range. Banknifty could test lower level once it goes below 51591 & Banknifty likely to face resistance around 53180. Fundamental Insight 1) Current Account Balance Records A Surplus Of $5.7 Billion After 10 Quarters In Q4 2) Bond Bulls Lift India Bets Ahead Of Index Inclusion 3) NCAER Projects Over 7% Growth For Indian Economy In Fiscal 2025 4) India's Net FDI Inflows Could Pick-Up This Fiscal After Decadal Low Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy Earnings season for Q1FY25 will start from 2nd week as IT & Banks would remain in focus. We have seen stock and sector rotation in rally in last two weeks and Reliance has outperformed in last 1-week. Monthly Auto sales figures would be in focus in next week and on global front, U.S economic data would provide further cues. We expect market to correct / consolidate in coming weeks and we would see this as buying opportunity. We remain optimistic going into budget as we see government will focus on growth and fiscal prudence at the same time as tax collection is robust and surplus dividend declared by RBI is positive. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆 Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

IT stocks playing catch-up................INFY, TCS & HCLTECH trading day's high 🚀🚀

IT & Private banks - are seen as value buying at current level. — Yesterday's post Banknifty @ 52378 - All private banks are leading the rally. Private banks - bullish with positional view 🎯🎯 IT stocks - could soon play catch up rally as result season to start after 2 - 3 weeks. Keeping IT stocks in focus. Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

Nifty @ 23524 & Banknifty @ 51620 & VIX @ 14.02 We see this consolidation phase as opportunity to accumulate - stock specific approach preferred. IT & Private banks - are seen as value buying at current level. Defense & Rail & Infra & other PSU 's will be remain in focus due to budget - but we would use any rally to book profit as we don't see major trigger for this stocks as most of the stocks from this sector are fairly valued. We remain neutral weight & trading opportunity in this sector Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

Last week – review Banknifty outperformed this week compared to Nifty 50 & BSE SENSEX, earlier Banknifty underperformed in last two weeks. Market in last two weeks continue to take cues from political development, after initial knee-jerk reaction on 4-Jun-24, market gradually stabilized as skepticism continue in market. Global market continues to trade near its high as rally in AI stocks triggered S&P500 & NASDAQ to cross fresh high made in May 2024. Technical Insight Nifty RSI @ 60.41 & RSI average @ 60.76 indicates consolidation. Nifty is near its resistance level of 23574 & 23878 while major support remains at 23081 & 22948. Banknifty RSI @ 65.22 & RSI average @ 60.95 indicates consolidation with positive bias. Banknifty @ 50596 remains a important support level where as move above 52182 could bring further upside. Nifty @ 22948 & Banknifty @ 50656 to act as important support level and market could see further downside only once this level is broken. F&O expiry for June series could trigger short covering as Indices continue to trade in consolidation phase. Nifty above 23664 & Banknifty above 51957 could trigger fresh upside. Indices likely to trade in range and we are not expecting any decisive move in this week. Fundamental Insight 1) Union Cabinet Raises MSPs for 14 Crops in Kharif Season 2) Retail Inflation Remains Nearly Flat for Farm, Rural Workers in May 3) ESIC Adds 16.47 Lakh New Members In April 4) RBI Reports Easing Retail Inflation, Warns Of Food Price Volatility 5) 53rd GST Council Meet on 22-Jun-24 Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy Soon the focus will shift to Budget in new expiry as Union finance budget is expected to be presented on 22-Jul-24. Rural spending, Infrastructure spending and spending in defense expected to remain in focus as robust tax collection will give space for Finance Minister to leverage and still maintain fiscal deficit. Recently RBI announced dividend which was above market estimate which provided positive trigger for Banking stocks. We would continue to remain bullish with some cautious approach on fresh investment. We have maintained our exposure around 75% and will continue to find opportunity to bring exposure around 95% ahead of budget next month. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆 Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

Global Market – S&P500 and NASDAQ at life time high This week we will discuss S&P500 & NASDAQ are trading near life-time high despite not cut in rate by U.S. Fed decision to keep interest at current level. Recent U.S. Fed meeting on 12-Jun-24 indicated only 1 rate cut in 2024 and 3 rate cut in 2025. Global market and other asset class are giving mix signals and continue to trade in narrow range with no decisive move or break-out seen. S&P500 and NASDAQ – Trading at life-time high Recent up move in NASDAQ and S&P500 is led by optimism around AI companies. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq scored record closing highs on Monday as technology shares rallied on enthusiasm over artificial intelligence ahead of this week's economic data and Federal Reserve officials' speeches that could shed light on monetary policy. NASDAQ led the recent rally as NASDAQ was trading around 1700 level in Mid-May and is current trading around 17700. NVIDA is leading the AI rally on optimism and hope of interest rate cut. U.S. Fed decision outcome on 12-Jun-24 • U.S. Fed kept rate unchanged at 5.25% - 5.50% • U.S. Fed forecast revised to 1 rate cut for 2024 • U.S. Fed to will prefer to wait for more confirmation of inflation cooling-off • Fed chief describes current policy as restrictive. Despite ECB cut rate by 25-bps earlier this month, there was no expectation of any change in rate from U.S. Fed. Market was focusing on commentary by U.S. Fed, which was disappointing as median forecast indicates only one rate cut for 2024 and 3 rate cut for 2025. Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Opinion When we focus on interest rate and global asset class, lower interest rate will result in risk-on sentiment across asset classes. Currently interest rate in U.S. and other develop economies are at historic high level and interest rate are stable at higher level. U.S. Fed describes this as restrictive policy. We see current phase of market as funds finding new investment opportunity in AI and interest rate will go down sooner or later as Fed has guided that rate hike cycle is done for now. However geo-political situation remains uncertain and earnings upgrade are yet to-catch-up which keeps as cautious. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆 Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf

Last week – review Market started this week on positive note reacting to EXIT poll in favor of BJP / NDA and indices touched fresh high on Monday ahead of election result on 4-Jun-24, Tuesday. Market was disappointed on Tuesday as BJP manage to win less seats compared to EXIT poll which led to sharp correction on Tuesday, however market gradually recovered on Wednesday, Thursday & Friday to close the week on positive note as Modi 3.0 government formation was confirmed by its allies TDP – Chandrababu Naidu & JD(U) – Nitish Kumar. PM Modi to take oath on 9-Jun-24. Approach on Technical: This week we will not be looking at technical parameters and incoming news from politics will continue to guide the market, such as cabinet formation and key portfolio allocation such as finance, railway, home & defense ministry. Market this week manage to close on positive note and we expect further momentum once BJP retains all key portfolio with them which has been growth engine for economy. RBI Monetary Policy Key Takeaways: Un swayed By Fed, Inflation, Growth And More • RBI MPC keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.50% for eight consecutive time. • Out of the six MPC members, four voted in favor of maintaining the policy repo rate. The MPC has chosen to uphold its monetary policy stance at 'withdrawal of accommodation'. • The Reserve Bank of India has lifted the real GDP growth forecast for the ongoing fiscal to 7.2% from 7% earlier, Governor Shaktikanta Das said. • The central bank sees GDP growth for the first, second, third and fourth quarter of the current fiscal at 7.3%, 7.2%, 7.3% and 7.2% respectively, das said. • The inflation for the ongoing fiscal was retained at 4.5% with headline CPI softening further, albeit with a reversal in food inflation gains, Das said. Equichain Wealth Advisors: Market View & Strategy Focus will now shift to cabinet formation and portfolio allocation and first 100-day agenda. We remain optimistic and do not expect any major downside till budget. We expect optimism will continue after 1-day reaction of 4-Jun-24 as market manages to close this week with minor gains. ECB cut interest rate this week and U.S. Fed & BOJ meeting next week provide cues from global interest rate while U.S. CPI & Core CPI data will be released this week. We will find opportunity to deploy fund and increase exposure to as high at 90% ahead of budget, we expect market will react positively if finance, defense and railways are retained by BJP and continuity is maintained. Click on the attachment to read the full report posted above 👆👆 Disclaimer: https://equichainwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Disclosure-on-Advice-Equihain-Wealth-Advisors.pdf