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Logging personal trades and major market events since 2019. βοΈ Contact: @TycheHermes Β©TradeLogs Global [2019]
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π$BTC 1D: If BTC retraces back from this recent pump and is unable to push above 83k, then it is most likely going to chop here inside the 62k-83k range and then dump again. Currently not holding any major position. If it goes back to the 62-65k area again, we will spot buy again and sell near 80-82k.
π BTC Position Update: It went $81,200, position is up 22% in 7 days. We have closed part of our spot position. August and September are infamous for round-tripping the entire move, and the market has been dull for a long time, so we prefer to book some profit here. September is usually a choppy month so just be careful with leveraged positions.
π Love it when I do nothing for a long time and suddenly take a long position, and they print a big green candle instantly. Looks like 82k will be delivered a lot earlier than i expected.
π π Thank you. Now, hold above 66k and keep moving so that we can hit 82k by the first week of September.
π $BTC 1D: It has been holding at $62k for the past month and has spent the last 71 days within the $66kβ$59k zone. That is enough sideways movement; Most likely a big move is about to print. We are betting on a spot buy position here at 64300$ with a stop-loss just below $62k. If $62k breaks, it will most likely drop to the $52kβ$56k range.
ππ BTC is stuck. There are no updates because there is nothing to see here before we trade above 66k. Keep patience.
πSadly, we didn't get the move we were hoping for. We've closed our spot BTC position here at $63K. It will probably take another 2β3 months for the market to bottom out.
π $BTC 1W: If BTC is unable to move above 66k by the end of this month then we will close our spot buy position. The market could turn nasty if the price gets rejected here.
πππ»If the price goes to 61k, this trade idea will be invalid, so you can use a stop loss there in case you are following this idea.
π$BTC 1W: If BTC makes this move, it could start a rally, but we are not very confident about it, so just trading the spot market only. Don't think BTC will bottom out before October or November, and the final 2-3 months of a bear markets are usually a bit violent, so we are being cautious.
π $BTC 1D: Open interest reset was not done fully but this is pretty strong bullish divergence. Weekly chart is also printing bullish divergence. Bought a small amount of Spot BTC here, we will update if this idea invalidates. 66k-67k is important level if it can break that level then it should test 83k areas.
π BTCUSD 1D: Waiting for open interest to be fully wiped out before looking for long entries. Although we believe it will take another 2β3 months for BTC to bottom out, we will look for 10β15% moves to trade until then. These will be short-term positions only, not long-term. Keep patience.
π BTC 2H (CME): 78500 CME gap, weakly close was good BTC could chase that level. We have a spot BTC buy position from 66k. Still it is below previous important support so be cautious with leveraged positions.
π $BTC 4H: Consolidating below support is not a very good thing. Still staying sidelined. We don't expect much of a bullish move before September-October, so the next few months are going to be dull like this, IMO.
πππ»Market Update: Bitcoin will probably bottom out in next 5β6 months. Markets are usually very volatile and choppy during a bottoming phase, so be patient and trade cautiously. If we start seeing bad news and FUD, that could be a sign that we're getting close to the bottom. It's been a long time since this market experienced any significant negative news, so let's see what the next 5β6 months bring. Our main goal should be to protect our capital and focus on low-risk trades during the next 5β6 months. No major trades for now.
π $BTC 1D: That open interest needs to be completely wiped out before we think about taking new long entries. Around $1 billion in positions still needs to be closed or liquidated. We'll wait until then.
π π Breakout failed, 65k done. All gaps are also filled. 20% dump but didn't wipe out the open interest much. So still staying sidelined, if we see a good price action here at 65-67k area then we will long again.
π BTC (CME): Gap at 70k and 67k and 78k, most likely it will fill that 67k gap then go up to 78k. If 66k support breaks then it could trigger a nasty sell off. As I said earlier, our long position was fully closed, so we are staying on the sidelines for a while.
