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Repost from SEKUYA ARMY
π« PRE ALPHA 1 PLAYTEST TOMORROW
π Time: 22 MAR 7 PM UTC+7
https://twitter.com/sekuyaofficial/status/1770691039755370841
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π₯ If scenario 2 plays out, then the price hike continues and right now it's a false signal from hidden bearish divergence. The price increase is the same as what I just mentioned above.
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Jika skenario 2 yang bermain, maka kenaikan harga berlanjut dan saat ini adalah false signal dari hidden bearish divergence. Kenaikan harga sama dengan yang barusan saya mention diatas.
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π₯ Right now, BTC's price still might correct, watch out for those two green boxes as support. Personally, I see a potential drop to the 0.786 - 0.886 ratio range at $61.6k - $62.1k, 'cause if you crunch the numbers, it looks like a consolidation or what we usually call a zigzag combo flat pattern.
The upside potential from that support is the 1.618 ratio at $81.858.
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Saat ini harga BTC masih berpotensi koreksi, perhatikan 2 kotak hijau sebagai support. Gua pribadi melihat potensi turun ke rasio 0.786 - 0.886 pada harga $61.6k - $62.1k, karena jika dihitung akan konsolidasi atau biasa kita sebuh zigzag combo flat pattern.
Potensi kenaikan dari support tersebut adalah rasio 1.618 pada harga $81.858
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Guys, bantu temen untuk isi survey thesisnya ya.
Dapatkan Gopay senilai 50rb untuk 2 orang beruntung yang mengisi survey thesis terkait sinyal cryptocurrency πͺπͺπͺ
Hanya dengan 5 menit mengisi survey dibawah ini!
https://bit.ly/thesis-sinyal-crypto
π¦ 0895635907509 (Guntur)
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Be careful, guys, during bullish times like this, many crypto influencers are trending. There are often many signs of scams impersonating others. Usually, the targets of these scams are people who are new to crypto because they're influenced by others.
So, remind your friends, guys.
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Hati-hati ya guys, lagi bull gini influencer kripto banyak yang trending. Pasti lagi banyak indikasi penipuan mengatas namakan orang. Biasanya target penipuan itu orang yang baru kenal kripto karena influence orang lain.
So ingetin temen-temennya ya guys.
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So, the conclusion is:
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. Short-term holders have started transacting because they've made profits.
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. Long-term holders are still holding their Bitcoin supply outside of exchanges.
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. Bitcoin miners in the past 2 months have also started transacting quite frequently due to profitability.
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. Bitcoin ETF is still relatively cold, and the market cap per financial company in the US has not yet exceeded hundreds of billions of dollars compared to US ETF stocks.
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. Personally, I still believe the trend is bullish, but it's very reasonable to expect corrections of -10% to -30% along this bullish trend. At least, the potential for Bitcoin to rise another +300% is still reasonable if adoption continues in the financial market.
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Jadi, kesimpulannya adalah :
1. Short term holder sudah mulai bertransaksi karena sudah cuan
2. Long term holder masih menyimpan pasokan Bitcoinnya diluar Exchanger
3. Para penambang Bitcoin pada 2 bulan belakangan juga mulai bertransaksi cukup sering karena sudah cuan
4. Bitcoin ETF masih cenderung dingin, Mcap per perusahaan keuangan di US pun belum terpantau melebihi ratusan miliar dollar jika dibandingkan dengan saham-saham ETF Amerika.
5. Saya pribadi masih yakin trend masih bullish, namun memang sangat wajar jika ada koreksi -10% sampai dengan -30% pada perjalanan trend bullish ini. Setidaknya potensi Bitcoin naik +300% lagi masih wajar kalo adopsinya masih di pasar keuangan.
πͺπͺπͺ
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Stock-to-flow is also not considered overheated yet; a correction of -20%, -30% is still reasonable.
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Stock to flows pun belum tergolong overheated, koreksi -20, -30% masih wajar. πͺπͺπͺ
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The journey of Bitcoin ETF is still long before we can say it's overvalued now; its market cap is not yet in the hundreds of billions.
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Perjalanan Bitcoin ETF masih panjang untuk bisa dibilang sekarang overvalue, marketcapnya belum ratusan miliar.
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Miners are also making big profits lately, which is why the Miner to Exchange Flow metric has risen several times in the past 2 months. Unlike usual, it's not just once or twice a month; there have been increases in metrics even towards the end of the month.
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Penambang juga lagi cuan banget makanya metric Miner to Exchange Flow naik beberapa kali dalam 2 bulan belakangan. Gak kaya biasanya hanya 1 atau 2x dalam sebulan itu pun akhir bulan aja ada kenaikan metrics. πͺπͺπͺ
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Let's pay attention to the MVRV Ratio. We previously discussed watching the yellow box as an area where there would be selling transactions in the price range of $74k - $80k, and now the reality is that short-term holders are starting to transact.
It can be seen in the significant increase in the STH-SOPR metric, indicating positively that short-term holders who have made a profit are starting to sell their Bitcoin supply. I guess these are the people who got stuck two years ago and then learned their lesson haha just kidding.
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Perhatikan MVRV Ratio, kita sempat membahas untuk memperhatikan kotak kuning sebagai area dimana akan adanya transaksi jual pada range harga $74k - $80k dan sekarang realitanya Short term holder lah yang mulai bertransaksi.
Dapat dilihat pada metric STH-SOPR yang naik signifikan menandakan positif bahwa Short-term holder yang sudah profit mulai menjual pasokan Bitcoinnya. Gua rasa sih ini yang orang yang nyangkut 2 taun lalu terus kapok wkwkwk bercandaaa bercandaa πͺπͺπͺπͺ
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Here are the indicators from Exchange Reserve data. If we observe the large chart, the metric has been declining for 4 years with no significant increase. This indicates that the supply of BTC on exchanges is currently being withdrawn for long-term holding. The circulation of supply being held like this can signal that Bitcoin investors are confident that the price can still move positively in the long term.
As for the monthly metric, there are no transactions that are too significant. The market remains positively bullish.
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Berikut adalah indikator dari data Exchange Reserve, jika kita perhatikan pada chart besar sudah 4 tahun metric menurun dan tidak ada kenaikan yang signifikan. Itu pertanda bahwa, suplai BTC yang ada di bursa saat ini banyak keluar untuk di hold jangka panjang. Sirkulasi suplai yang di hold seperti inilah dapat memberikan kita sinyal bahwa memang investor Bitcoin yakin harga masih dapat bergerak positif untuk jangka panjang.
Sedangkan untuk metric bulanan pun, tidak ada transaksi yang terlalu signifikan. Pasar masih positif bullish. πͺπͺπͺ
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Let's observe and review the analysis we made some time ago, noting that we need to pay attention to the price range of $74k - $80k as a resistance area. In today's Bitcoin analysis, we'll discuss on-chain data using various indicators. I'll explain in the next post. πͺπͺπͺ
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Perhatikan dan telaah kembali analisa yang sudah kita buat beberapa waktu lalu, bahwa kita perlu memperhatikan range harga $74k - $80k sebagai area resistance. Pada analisa Bitcoin hari ini kita akan bahas data onchain melalui beberapa data indikator, saya akan jelaskan pada postingan berikutnya.
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$DOGE, I'm confident that DOGE will reach a new all-time high. Pay attention to the EMA200 4H at the price range of the green box at $0.13435 - $0.12906, I will add DOGE at that price. Perhaps this could serve as a reference for those of you who haven't entered at the lower price yesterday.
βΊοΈβΊοΈβΊοΈ
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$JUP, My expectation is for $JUP to rise to $4.5 at a ratio of 2.618. Note, the potential for the price to fall to the green box at the golden ratio. π₯³π₯³π₯³
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$FTM, Observe the support in the price range of $0.6733 - $0.5773 or observe the EMA50 1D as the support level. π³π³π³
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$MATIC, pay attentio to EMA50 4H, price at $1,0919 ; $1,0445 and EM200 4h, now the price at $0,8605 πͺπͺπͺ
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