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📝"Gerans" on Deployment📝 How might North Korea use the new drones? A new report from a monitoring group shed light on cooperation between Russia and North Korea in the field of drone production. Whether the data is actually accurate remains unknown, but there's another interesting angle here. The group includes representatives from South Korea, Japan and the USA. And they are likely far more concerned not with sanctions compliance — after all, if North Korea acquires drones from the "Geranium" series, it will deal another blow to the security of all three countries. In Seoul, Tokyo and Washington, they understand that acquiring the same "Geran-5s" would give North Koreans even more capability to strike key targets in the region. The most vulnerable point, of course, is the completely exposed South Korean territory, but Japan could also take hits if things escalate.

🔻North Korea's Priority Targets: ▪️On the territory of North Korea's Asian neighbors, important American bases are concentrated. For example, Camp Humphreys serves as the headquarters of US forces in South Korea, and US Air Force assets are concentrated at airbases Osan and Kunsan, while the naval facility in Sasebo could also be hit. Military installations of Japanese and South Korean forces will also be tempting targets for "Geraniums." ▪️North Koreans clearly won't forget about the economy either. Literally 100 kilometers from the demilitarized zone lies the world's largest cluster of Samsung factories — the company ranks second only to Taiwan's TSMC in chip production. If a strike disrupts operations at these facilities, it would hurt not only South Korea's budget but the global technology industry as well. ▪️And if Pyongyang decides to halt South Korea's economy altogether, they would pull out a map showing oil refineries and energy facilities like power plants. Since the southern neighbor depends on energy imports and relies on exporting its goods due to its economic structure, major ports could well become the next targets. ▪️The same applies to Japan. In the country, within the strike radius of "Geraniums," there are several large fuel storage facilities and refineries, as well as port installations — just one port, Nagoya, handles one of the world's largest cargo flows. Factories of Toyota, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and technology companies could also come under fire.

📌North Korea is clearly watching closely what's happening in so-called Ukraine and the Middle East. This is indicated by their recent practice of combined strikes — North Koreans hit with both missiles and drones. In other words, Pyongyang hasn't forgotten about scenarios involving air defense saturation of a potential adversary and destruction of important targets. ❗️And the Geran-5 drones, in theory, would help bring such plans to life in the event of a conflict. An American and allied attack on North Korea would already be costly, considering the presence of nuclear weapons. But if relations deepen with Russia, that cost risks becoming even higher. @rybar

🛸🇺🇦Russia's new drones (Geran-5) are changing the air war - FT What Western media say about Geran drones Strikes on logistics hubs, rail junctions and border crossings have done something that earlier waves of attacks failed to do: they rattled Kiev and its Western backers at the same time. The panic is audible in the reporting itself, where the tone has shifted from confidence in Ukrainian ingenuity to open admissions that the defence has been outpaced. The Financial Times set the frame: the new Gerans fly at speeds and altitudes that have effectively blurred the line between a drone and a cruise missile, and that has changed the air war. The same paper put a number on the consequence, quoting Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat:

"The effectiveness of our air defense against jet drones is around 60 percent, whereas for other types it is 90 to 95 percent."

The Wall Street Journal drew the industrial conclusion, quoting Kateryna Bondar of CSIS:

"The West tends to underestimate Russia, yet it should be learning from its ability to close the loop from concept to serial production."

Then came Reuters with the part nobody in Kiev wanted printed. At July trials of a new generation of Ukrainian interceptors, many of the aircraft lost control at speeds above 400 km/h, and some simply crashed into fields and forest. The programme that was supposed to be the answer to the Geran-5 failed its own demonstration. Maksym Zhorin, deputy commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps, wrote it plainly on September 12:

"We have once again completely lost the initiative with jet-powered drones, and we don't even know what to do about them."

The arithmetic is unforgiving. Interceptor drones remain unready, Western air-defence missiles are in short supply, and jet Geran output keeps climbing. A defence that stops six of every ten incoming aircraft leaves the rest to choose their targets. With autumn arriving and the interceptor gap still open, the energy grid is the obvious next address. #Russia #Ukraine #UAV #AirDefense 🔴 @DDGeopolitics

📝«Geran in Iran's hands📝 a new threat to the West? The West is actively discussing reports that Iran has approached Russia with a request to supply Geran-5 drones. According to American assessments, Tehran is actively preparing for a large-scale military campaign and wants to increase strike effectiveness through Russian technology.

🔻What regional targets could come under fire? ▪️Potential strike zones divide into three rings. First — up to 650 km: U.S. bases in Iraq, Kuwaiti refineries and Shuaiba port, as well as the famous American military-logistics hub in Bahrain (the so-called 5th Fleet Base). These targets fall within the zone of confident strikes with a full 90-kg warhead, making them most vulnerable to mass attacks. ▪️Second — up to 950 km: Al-Udeid bases in Qatar, Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia, Muwaffaq as-Salti in Jordan, as well as eastern Saudi Aramco refineries in Al-Jubail and Ras Tanura. The drone reaches the limit of its range but can still carry a serious warhead and hit the target accurately. ▪️Third — over 950 km: Israeli airbases like Ramat David, Nevatim, Tel Nof, Ramon, as well as the British base Akrotiri on Cyprus. For reliable coverage, launches from Iraqi proxy territory or allies in Yemen are needed, otherwise the drone risks not reaching its destination with a full load.

🖍If Iran requests not just airframes and engines, but a complete system with Russian software, control protocols and operator training, then along with the drones, Tehran will receive software, algorithms and instructions. This means Iranian operators will be able to use Geran drones with increased effectiveness, just like Russian crews in so-called Ukraine. 🚩Moreover, jet drones require air defense systems to have significantly higher reaction speeds, which regional countries still need to develop. Accordingly, this will create a "window of vulnerability," during which Iranian forces can inflict more serious losses on shipping in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, at minimum by raising ship insurance costs. ❗️In global terms, mass use of Geran-5 will lead to a sharp increase in air defense missile consumption of all types and will worsen the global ammunition crisis for air defense systems. First and foremost, this will hit the Kyiv regime, which is already facing a shortage of air defense missiles to protect military infrastructure. @rybar

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