Ajay Bagga Global Financial Insights
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š Analytical overview of Telegram channel Ajay Bagga Global Financial Insights
Channel Ajay Bagga Global Financial Insights (@ajaybaggaglobal) in the English language segment is an active participant. Currently, the community unites 10 876 subscribers, ranking 15 457 in the Economy & Finance category.
š Audience metrics and dynamics
Since its creation on Š½ŠµŠ²ŃŠ“Š¾Š¼Š¾, the project has demonstrated rapid growth, gathering an audience of 10 876 subscribers.
According to the latest data from 02 December, 2024, the channel demonstrates stable activity. Although there has been a change in the number of participants by 0 over the last 30 days and by 0 over the last 24 hours, overall reach remains high.
- Verification status: Not verified
- Engagement rate (ER): The average audience engagement rate is 0%. Within the first 24 hours after publication, content typically collects N/A% reactions from the total number of subscribers.
- Post reach: On average, each post receives 0 views. Within the first day, a publication typically gains 0 views.
- Reactions and interaction: The audience actively supports content: the average number of reactions per post is 0.
š Description and content policy
The author describes the resource as a platform for expressing subjective opinions:
āAjay Bagga Macro Perspectivesā
Thanks to the high frequency of updates (latest data received on 03 December, 2024), the channel maintains relevance and a high level of publication reach. Analytics show that the audience actively interacts with content, making it an important point of influence in the Economy & Finance category.
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Channel Posts
Why we can skip the 2024 Outlooks this time around?
65/65 economists in a Bloomberg poll in Oct 2022, forecasted a US recession in 2023.
US Real GDP Growth annualised numbers:
Q1 2023 : 2.2 %
Q2 2023: 2.1 %
Q3 2023: 4.9 %
Q4 2023: Expected to be at 2.1 %
Various Outlooks' 2023 predicted a recession for late-2022, early 2023, mid-2023, and late-2023.
All were wrong eventually .
Will read and summarise the 2024 Outlooks, as I do every year.
But am getting a little impatient with the lack of predictive accuracy .
I know I cant predict with any amount of success.
But these are the best brains in professional economics, with access to the best data .
Need better outcomes .
| 2 | 2024 will be the Year of Elections , with 70 countries , with a population of 4.2 billion people holding national elections.
From India to the US to the UK and 63 others, Elections will lead to increased markets' volatility in 2023 | 3 986 |
| 3 | In 2022 end, 2023 consensus Outlook was a US and Europe recession , rate cuts by end 2023.
Proved off the mark.
In 2023 end, 2024 consensus Outlook is again, a US and Europe slowdown, rate cuts by June/July 2023.
The reality will not follow these projections.
Neither will the markets. | 3 721 |
| 4 | Right upto the US Presidential elections in 2024, scheduled for Tuesday , Nov 5th , will mean that 10 months of 2024 will be focussed on the emergence of the two parties candidates, their debates , their policy pronouncements and the ultimate result of the election contest.
Will share the market performance in US Presidential Election years over the next few weeks. | 3 585 |
| 5 | Indian Household Loans:
The personal loan books of Indian banks and non-banks grew 1.5 times between FY17 and FY23, and now, at Rs 51.7 trillion, is at over 30% of the overall outstanding credit of Rs 170.5 trillion as of March 2023. In end FY17, the personal loans were at Rs 18.6 trillion or 21.5% of the Indian overall loan book.
Of the total personal loans, unsecured loans jumped more than four-fold to Rs 13.32 trillion as of March 2023 from Rs 4.26 trillion in March 2017. In FY23, it went up 23% over FY22, when it stood at Rs 10.81 trillion.
The RBI has moved to moderate this growth in unsecured personal loans over the last two weeks. | 3 504 |
| 6 | Indian Stock Markets :
FPI holding have hit a 10-year low despite India's strong fundamentals.
Aggregate holdings of FPIs stand at Rs 54.5 trillion, implying 16.6% holdings of overall Indian equities as of Nov'23 which is the lowest since 2012.
Domestic institutions have absorbed the FPI selling in India, especially helped by the robust SIP inflows in Mutual Funds every month. | 3 325 |
| 7 | India hits a record 1.06 lakhs international air traveller number and 4.63 lakhs domestic air traveller number on Nov 24th.
Aviation is a booming sector in India . | 2 986 |
| 8 | Seeing a Bloomberg article on India's massive infrastructure push "Modiās Nation-Building Push Sparks $125 Billion Rally in Industrial Stocks",
an article in The Economist "India is seeing a massive aviation boom:
New airports, hundreds of aircraft and millions of new passengers are on their way" .
The huge public infrastructure push and PLI support for manufacturing will have a massive multiplier impact on India's GDP and tax revenues down the line. | 2 973 |
| 9 | US Consumer:
This Thanksgiving the number of US airline travellers exceeded the 2019 numbers . | 2 839 |
| 10 | US Consumer:
The US National Retail Federation estimates that total US holiday shopping this year will hit a new record, reaching as high as $966bn. This is one of the biggest drivers of the global economy . And remains resilient for now. | 2 927 |
| 11 | US Consumer:
Over 180 million US consumers will shop in 2023 during the Black Friday sales, creating a record for the highest numbers since 2017 when tracking began for this . This is expected to be up 9% from 2022 numbers. | 3 041 |
| 12 | US Consumer:
This period from pre Thanksgiving through Black Friday sales to Cyber Monday ( the monday following the Thanksgiving weekend when electronics vendors discount goods even more ) is significant for US retail stores annual turnover.
The sales numbers in this period provide a picture of the health of the US consumer , who is the mainstay of the US economy. | 3 076 |
| 13 | US Retails sales :
Initial estimates are that US consumer spending during sales on Thanksgiving Day was 5.5% higher this year than in 2022.
The number has nearly doubled from $2.9bn in 2017.
Some part if due to inflation, some part due to actual expansion of the US consumption. | 3 112 |
| 14 | UK : Pound hits 11-week high against dollar after UK consumer confidence jumps | 3 453 |
| 15 | The ECB is now at a point where it can pause and assess the impact of its tightening, according to President Christine Lagarde | 3 559 |
| 16 | Expectations of rate cuts in 2024:
Bank of England : May/June
US Fed: June/July
ECB : September/October
RBI : June/July | 3 506 |
| 17 | The dollar slipped on Friday as investors bet U.S. interest rates have peaked, while the yen edged higher after Japan's core consumer price growth picked up, reinforcing views that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may soon roll back monetary stimulus.
With U.S. markets closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and due for a shorter Black Friday trading session, currencies are trading narrowly as liquidity is expected to remain thin. | 3 483 |
| 18 | Wedding Season in India:
Around 35 lakh weddings are set to take place between November 23 and December 15 in India. Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) expects wedding spends of Rs 4.25 lakh crore, which will result in a significant economic boost. | 3 249 |
| 19 | Weekly Fund Flows :
Global equity funds attracted robust inflows in the seven days leading to Nov. 22, spurred by growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates amid signs of easing inflation.
Investors purchased a net $9.13 billion worth of global equity funds during the week, after about $10.96 billion worth of net accumulations in the prior week
European equity funds saw substantial inflows, attracting about a net $4.28 billion, the highest weekly amount since February 1.
U.S. funds secured $6.27 billion,
Asian funds saw withdrawals of $2.24 billion ending a 24-week buying streak.
The technology sector continued to draw strong interest, with funds receiving $2.33 billion net, the highest since mid-December 2021. In contrast, healthcare and utilities sector funds saw outflows of $648 million and $379 million, respectively.
Global bond funds, attracted $2.94 billion, the lowest in three weeks. Inflows were distributed across global government and corporate bond funds, which drew $1.75 billion and $1.32 billion, respectively.
Demand for high yield bond funds, meanwhile, fizzled out during the week as they received just $1.13 billion, compared with over $5 billion worth of net purchases in each of the previous two weeks.
Global money market funds received about $28.3 billion during the week, their fifth weekly inflow in a row.
Data for commodity funds revealed energy funds had $154 million worth of outflows, the first weekly net selling in five weeks. Meanwhile, precious metal funds gained $512 million in inflows, the most in three weeks.
Data for emerging markets, factoring in 28,665 funds, highlighted that bond funds received about $777 million, their second weekly inflow in three weeks.
Equity funds, however, suffered a 15th straight week of outflow, with about $272 million in net outgo. | 3 303 |
| 20 | The UK economy found its feet again in November as the service sector arrested a three-month sequence of decline and manufacturers began to report less severe cutbacks to production schedules | 3 178 |
