Simon - Free bets/Info

Free bet for today: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Stoke v Millwall Millwall +0 AH cards @ 1.7 (1u) Model has this at 1.41 (+20 EV), so a good value bet here. Bet365

Good win on the free bet, full house in my group today though👀 Betis O13.5 shots @ 1.72 ✅ U8.5 SOT @ 2.1 ✅ O20.5 shots @ 1.83 ✅ Brighton U2.5 offs @ 1.66 ✅ U30.5 FK @ 1.61 ✅ Palace U16.5 FK @ 1.72 ✅ O26.5 fouls @ 1.89 ✅ ROI% 122.3 +6.18u January group is opening up soon, so if you’d like to join just send me a DM:)

Ends on 2 offsides✅ +0.61u

Odds for Brighton offsides from my model:

One for today on Bet365: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Palace v Brighton Brighton U2.5 offs @ 1.61 (1u) Taken in my group for 1.66, but still decent value here. Palace usually has few offsides against, only 2/15 over 2.5 for the opponent this season. 2,2,1,0 offsides last four h2h.

✖️✅✖️✖️(?)✅ Small loss on these free bets. Udinese gets a red card at 65’ unfortunately, was looking good with 11 shots at HT but took some variance.

Sharing one more free bet for today: 🇮🇹 Lazio v Inter Lazio O2.5 SOT @ 1.66 (1.5u) Very rarely let 2.5 SOT lines for a top team slide. Looks underpriced with a decent chance that Inter might score first. Usually high scoring games between these two, 7 & 5 SOT for Lazio in the previous H2H's.

Three more free bets: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Liverpool v Man Utd • Antony U0.5 pSOT @ 1.66 (1u) • Trent U2.5 pTK @ 1.53 (1u) • McTominay U2.5 pTK @ 1.57 (0.5u) All bet365 United is looking very weak going forward at the moment. Models give odds at 1.33, 1.28 and 1.41 for these.

Kick off in 15 min (!): 🇮🇹Udinese v Sassuolo U27.5 shots @ 1.9 (2u) Good value here. No shots above 27.5 at home for Udinese this season. 23 & 22 shots between these last year. bet365

✅ Ipswich +0.5 cards @ 1.9 ✅U5 cards @ 1.85 ✅Huddersfield +0 cards @ 1.75 ✖️U5.5 cards @ 1.72 +1.1u One 93' minute card away from a full house here, but decent profit!

✖️Looked good with early city lead, but they completely bottled it unfortunately. Variance here

Free bet: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Man City v Palace U9.5 SOT @ 1.72 (1.5u) Kick off in 1 hour. Good value here with reduced City XI and no Haaland. 7,4 SOT between these last season.

Winner✅ Although with being subbed out at 68’ +0.66u

One for tonight: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Forest v Spurs - Boly O1.5 tackles @ 1.53 (1.25u) Hit over 1.5 in 9/10 games this season. Likely a high amount of tackles from Forest in this game. Fair odds ~1.21 from model.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Bristol v Sunderland U5.5 cards @ 1.72 (0.75u) 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Hull v Cardiff U5 cards @ 1.85 (0.75u) 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Millwall v Huddersfield Huddersfield +0 cards @ 1.75 (0.75u) 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿Ipswich v Norwich Ipswich +0.5 cards @ 1.9 (0.75u) All Bet365

Full house! PSV O12.5 shots @ 1.83✅ U24.5 FK @ 1.83 ✅ U22.5 FK @ 2.5 ✅ (👀) U20.5 FK @ 3.75 ✅ (👀👀) McTominay U2.5 pTK @ 1.61 ✅ U23.5 FK @ 1.83 ✅ ROI% 200.3 +4.76u !!

✅✅✅✅ … … ✅ good start, two more bets to go

🇪🇺Lens v Sevilla U25.5 shots @ 1.83 worth 0.75u

🇪🇺PSV v Arsenal PSV O12.5 shots @ 1.83 (0.5u) U24.5 FK @ 1.83 (1.5u) U22.5 FK @ 2.5 (0.5u) U20.5 FK @ 3.75 (0.25u) 🇪🇺Man Utd v Bayern McTominay U2.5 pTK @ 1.61 (0.75u) U23.5 FK @ 1.83 (0.75u) 🇪🇺Lens v Sevilla U25.5 shots @ 2 (1u) All bet365