Cryptoflation Alerts
Open in Telegram
2 079
Subscribers
No data24 hours
-47 days
-2230 days
Posts Archive
2 079
Now we are back to risk on.
Takeaway this lesson: Take a macro and micro approach when such events occur. How we looked at it is as follows in the picture in the previous alert. We bought ETH at 3.3k 3.1k and had order down to 2.6k. Same idea with BTC. We knew that a negative change in the environment was not on the table (no increase in rates) which means that no matter what, mid term is positive. We needed to hedge short term. That is why we waited until we confirmed that the FOMC guidance is positive and will power out the negativity of the hold decision.
2 079
FED Decision vs Market Fear
Since CPI results came out last week, markets have been on a downward trend, anticipating the decision of todays FOMC meeting. It came in a time when markets were at maximal risk and and in need of deleveraging and a breath of fresh air. The change in expectations from a decrease in rates to a hold created bearish short term sentiment, pulling BTC down to 60k. But we knew that overall the only decision that would change the liquidity environment would be an increase in rates which was near impossible. But yet, we held on and did not position until after the FOMC.
The FEDs forward guidance was able to ease fears, as the Fed's dovish outlook boosted markets and risk assets, including Bitcoin. FOMC upgrades growth rates, signaling a potential economy 'soft landing'. The Fed's future growth forecasts surpass many economists' expectations, maintaining a stable unemployment rate. Chair Powell hints at easing inflation and possible slowing of Quantitative Tightening.
2 079
The Fed is expected to hold rate in the upcoming FOMC meeting. Holding steady would likely have negative repercussions on the market. We don’t rule out another 5-10% dip if rates hold. A decision to increase rates is out of reach so that is not a real worry. A cut in rates will take us to ATH again.
With that in mind here are some logical scenarios
Scenario 1:
Decision: Hold rates
Market reaction: BTC and ETH large downside wick instantly liquidate positions, followed by short term downside momentum. 5-10% downside is not impossible. 15+% is unlikely. We take a few weeks to sweat out the fear.
Scenario 2:
Decision: Rate cut
Market reaction: ATHs within the short term and were set to go to 80k+ with halving.
Credits to CME Fed watch tool for the data
2 079
in 2022 Standard Chartered predicted bitcoin to reach $5,000
in 2024 they predict BTC to reach $150,000
Banks are not your friends #ExitLiquidity
2 079
Issue 102 of The Weekly Dripp 🔥 التحديث الأسبوعي #102
In this Issue:
- Crypto News & Highlights 📰
- Bitcoin Market Update + On-chain insights 📈
Download below 👇 اضغط على الملف
2 079
Be smart, TP as we go. SL is your best friend. Especially if you are doing well know even though you are a beginner… DONT overestimate yourself and end up noticing that you were a BULL in the bull market.
2 079
4 Years ago Bitcoin crashed from $8000 to $3500 in a few minutes
Bitcoin went up 2000% since the lows
2 079
Bitcoin will never reach all time high
Bitcoin will go back to $12,000
Bitcoin is in a bear market
Bears always sound smart but Bulls make the most money
We are closer to $100,000 than $40,000🤣 🤣
2 079
September 2023 Bitcoin was trading at $25,000 and we wrote a report why we were buying aggressively and the market was wrong
To anyone who bought BTC at 25k and it went UP ONLY
We bought before BlackRock
the special report we posted is in the link below 👇
2 079
Issue 101 of The Weekly Dripp 🔥 التحديث الأسبوعي #101
In this Issue:
- Crypto News & Highlights 📰
- Bitcoin Market Update + On-chain insights 📈
Download below 👇 اضغط على الملف
