FOREXIA - (Follow Main Channel: @forexia2)

Here is what the COT report data says about GOLD: https://www.tradingster.com/cot/legacy-futures/088691

I still expect a reversal on DXY (USD) and the COT report data seems to support my bias of a bullish USD. https://www.tradingview.com/x/RWEVFkUV/

How This Aligns with Our Contrarian Strategy: Contrarian Insight: As a contrarian trader aka a FOREXIAN, you look for crowded trades to position yourself on the opposite side of the majority. The COT report reveals that retail traders are heavily short, while large speculators are only slightly long, and commercial hedgers are neutral. This imbalance—particularly the heavy retail shorting—provides a contrarian opportunity to go long on the USD, anticipating that the market is oversold and due for a reversal. Retail Over-Commitment: The fact that retail traders are so heavily short means that they have over-committed to the bearish side of the USD trade. When this happens, the likelihood of a short squeeze increases, as retail traders will eventually have to cover their short positions if the USD begins to rise, further fueling an upward movement. Large Speculators Cautiously Long: Large speculators, who are often considered smart money, are net long but not aggressively so. This cautious long positioning suggests that while they are not expecting explosive USD strength, they also do not expect further substantial weakness. Their slight long bias aligns with the potential for the USD to find a bottom and begin moving higher. Commercial Hedgers' Neutrality: The fact that commercial traders are hedging near neutrality suggests that they are not concerned about major downside risk. Their neutrality adds another layer of support to the argument that the USD may have already absorbed most of its bearish pressure, and could now be setting up for strength. *Market Structure and the COT Report: Supporting the USD Uptrend If your market structure analysis suggests that the USD is building strength and potentially entering an uptrend, the COT data does align with this view: Heavily short retail traders are often on the wrong side at market turning points, which supports the idea of a bottoming process in the USD and an upcoming reversal to the upside. Slightly net-long large speculators reflect that there is potential for more upside, even if they are cautious. Neutral commercial traders suggest that downside is limited, meaning that the bearish trend may have exhausted itself. Conclusion: The COT Report Supports Our Contrarian Strategy Based on the contrarian interpretation of the COT report, the current market positioning aligns with your expectation that the USD is likely to gain strength and potentially enter an uptrend. Retail traders are overly short, which is a classic signal of a crowded trade ready for a reversal, while large speculators are slightly long and commercial traders are neutral, both of which support the idea that downside risk is limited and that the USD could start moving higher. As a contrarian trader, this setup presents a strong case to go long on the USD, especially if you’re seeing technical signals of a reversal in market structure. By combining the COT data with our market structure analysis, we are positioning ourselves to take advantage of a potential shift in trend, where the majority of retail traders will likely get caught on the wrong side.

Key Contrarian Signals from the COT Report: Retail Traders (Non-Reportable Positions) Are Heavily Short: Shorts: 3,816 Longs: 1,935 Retail traders, or small speculators, are heavily short on the USD. This reflects bearish sentiment among retail traders, which, from a contrarian perspective, is a bullish signal. When retail traders are heavily positioned on one side (in this case, short), it often means they have followed the current trend (which has been USD weakness) and expect it to continue. Retail traders are typically late to join trends, meaning they often get caught on the wrong side of the trade when the market reverses. Their heavy short positioning suggests that downside potential is limited, as the majority of weak hands have already sold.

Now let me break this data down for you...

Here is the data for the COT Report of the USD, as of Sept 17. https://www.tradingster.com/cot/legacy-futures/098662

Now let's look at some COT Report: but first for those that do not know what the COT report is... The Commitment of Traders (COT) report is a weekly publication by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that provides a breakdown of the positions held by different types of traders in futures markets. It categorizes traders into commercial hedgers, non-commercial speculators (such as hedge funds), and small speculators (retail traders), showing their long, short, and spread positions. The COT report is used by traders to gauge market sentiment, identify positioning extremes, and anticipate potential market reversals, often serving as a contrarian indicator when one group becomes over-committed to one side of the market.

Good morning everyone, happy Sunday and I hope each of you is having a good day so far.. All God's blessings to you. Today is Sunday as you know.. I am going by my wife's aunt today for lunch and I'm not sure what time we intend to come back, however... If I were spending my day at home.. I am telling you.. To make sure that I am as proficient as I can be I'd be spending my day practicing my craft. Imagine that almost 9 years in the game and I'm still serious about practice. Most of you reading this don't even attempt to practice during the week, far less for when the market is closed. And that is why a lot of you will never make it.. Because of your own lack of desire to get better. In order to get what no one else has you must be willing to do what no one else is willing to do. Such as - work on a Sunday. Get some work in and let's see who is backtesting /simulating today.. Send me an image and I'd forward it in this group, let's see how many people actually take this thing serious.

Next week we will slay the markets once again, be sure to not miss out and join our VIP Signals channel for lifetime access to our trading signals: https://www.forexiapro.com/order-page1669124537584

Here is the final outcome for the trades sent to our VIP Signals channel this week: GBPJPY: +140 PIPS CADJPY: +116 PIPS AUDJPY: +116 PIPS NZDJPY: +80 PIPS EURJPY: +130 PIPS USDPY: +245 PIPS EURUSD: +30 PIPS GBPUSD -35 PIPS EURUSD -21 PIPS GOLD -54 PIPS GBPUSD +0 PIPS (break even) GBPUSD -43 PIPS Total Sum: 704 PIPS Summary of Trading Performance for This Week Total Trades: 12 Winning Trades: 7 Losing Trades: 4 Break-even Trades: 1 Win Rate: 63.64% Total Pips Gained: 704 pips Average Profit per Winning Trade: 122.43 pips Average Loss per Losing Trade: 38.25 pips Average Risk-to-Reward Ratio per Trade: 3.2 : 1 Risk of Ruin: Negligible (assuming low risk per trade and consistent risk management) Risk of Ruin is the probability of losing your entire trading capital based on your trading performance metrics. Given your high win rate and favorable risk-to-reward ratio, and if you're risking a small percentage per trade (e.g., 1%), your risk of ruin is extremely low—approaching zero.

Here is what I expect for next week on DXY. https://www.tradingview.com/x/CPqwQVBW/

Take into consideration that all these analysis / bias depend on the USD , if the Dollar breaks the low of this week the analysis / bias will be invalidated.

These notes should paint a clear vision as to why and how I have formed my bias on all these different pairs.

BXY (GBP Index) - Sept, 19 2024 - Confirmations -Obvious uptrend on 1hr / 4hr timeframe -#SignatureTrade formation -M formation in macro & micro -Multiple gaps under price suggesting a move to the downside -Buyers being induced and trapped above 132.67 price level (red line)

USDJPY - Weekly timeframe Weekly candlestick: no preference to how this week closes or how next week. Overall the current candle shows major rejection from the 140.00 price level, if it closes below this level then the trade may be invalidated but I do not forsee this happening. Next week I envision a big fat green candle to demolish trend traders.

USDJPY - Sept, 19 2024 - Confirmations Current Price: 142.490 -Obvious downtrend inside downtrend, trend traders being stopped out. -FOMC sellers trapped and induced -Sellers trapped below 141.705 price level (red line) -Sellers trapped below 140.00 psych level -Sellers of the trend will have their SLs places above 144.00 and 147.00 price levels. Total potential move to the upside: 155 to 475+ pips.

XAUUSD (GOLD) - Weekly candle I would like to see this weeks candle close tomorrow at around 2,575.00 Then next weeks candle print a wick to around 2590.73 before reversing to the downside.

XAUUSD (GOLD) - Sept, 19 2024 - Confirmations Current Price: 2,587.14 -Very obvious uptrend -FOMC buyer induction & trap off the highs -M formation on 4HR timeframe -Volatile second leg of M -Many buyer SLs accumulated at approx 2550.00 & 2477.00 -Potential move to the downside of 380 to 1162 pips or more.