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Channel Posts
The on chain market doesn't look great. A lot of people got burned in the last few weeks and gave back a majority of their profits. I can't blame them when the hot memes from the last few months look like this:
stonk -55%
niu lai -55%
cate -56%
orbio -59%
pons -60%
cashcat -61%
marscoin -63%
ansem -69%
ai -70%
zcat -71%
I played these last months very well and my portfolio sits at an ATH even after these drawdowns so I thought I'll try to give you some advice on how to play these situations.
Everyone has a different trading style so this might not work for you but maybe you can implement some aspects of this to minimize your downside risk.
I usually trade with a set time horizon, validation & invalidation. I write them down before every trade and might adjust them in the future depending on new information. I always take profit. The conditions aren't good enough to just hope for a home run on every trade. I usually clip 10% into high volume candles if my first targets are reached. I do this until I see momentum slowing down. Then I write down my thoughts again and depending on that I either hold the bag or sell slowly on the way down.
There is nothing wrong with selling. In euphoric markets people try to brain wash you into thinking you have to hold for a 100x every time. That's not true.
I have to be honest that I lost a lot of money on the robinhood ecosystem as well. I minimized that downside by taking profits on the way up but I'm still down a lot of money on AI, BONER, PONS and CASHCAT. I managed to make the loss back on other tokens while they were bleeding so I barely outpaced the drawdown.
Another way to get burned fast is by endlessly DCAing on tokens. We are in a fast paced rotational market. In 1/100 scenarios a DCA plays out well and you make great returns. The other 99 times you give back all your profits.
Do you want to be right or make money? If you want to be right then you can dca for a month and leave other opportunities on the table. If you want to make money you rotate with the liquidity. Same with the robinhood bet. Keep playing robinhood if you want to be right. Go find other opportunities if you want to make money.
A key rule is also that I always hold at least 70% of my portfolio in stables. I have certain long term bets that I hold for a long time but I don't see a reason to hold BTC/ETH/SOL instead of USDC. If BTC rallies back to ATH in the next months you're up 50%. Now onchain will also be really hot because BTC rallied and you will make a lot of money onchain. If you don't think you can outpace the BTC return from your onchain trading you have a bigger problem than risk management.
With that said:
-take profits into high volume candles and don't always try to go for the home run
-have a majority of your port in stables
-have a clear entry / exit plan on all trades
-never DCA down too long
Better times are ahead so make sure you don't get burned before we enter them
| 2 | I did a little portfolio restructuring today. I sold the majority of my onchain low cap / beta bags. I think the market isn't looking bright now and will probably continue to chop for a few weeks.
In times like these you want to lock in profit and concentrate your liquidity in your long term bets instead of having multiple low cap plays.
I rotated my profits from the last few months into my long term bet which is that AI x crypto will be the narrative of this cycle.
It feels like there will be some more narratives but AI start ups using crypto rails to improve their product feels like a great bet to take here. In general I'm bullish on all projects using blockchains to improve an already existing sector.
With that said I will go in the detail on each of them later today but my way of expressing that is through $VVV, $POD & CARDS
I have some more alts on my watchlist and think that in the current environment the r/r on alts is much better than onchain but that can change any moment. I still own some $HOOKED. The dev is working really hard and I feel like if hooks take off this will be the main runner while all other launchpads on rh pvp each other. I've cut my rh ecosystem exposure by half today but I'm still convinced they will come back one day and I'm here for it
I will also focus on building sparsity so I don't overtrade in these conditions. Yesterday we added the "request a token" button for you guys to suggest tokens we should add. We added 15 tokens in the last few days and are adding more everyday. | 1 422 |
| 3 | I'm looking for a marketing / media lead for a project I'm helping.
If you've done marketing for a big crypto / AI firm shoot me a dm with your credentials.
This is a paid position. Don't dm me if you don't have experience.
@kiotoxc | 1 385 |
| 4 | https://x.com/artofconviction/status/2107860360313307222
you are now able to request your tokens to be listed on sparsity directly through our site.
We go through them all the time and list your tokens | 1 428 |
| 5 | https://x.com/0xkioto/status/2107536759647015416
I summarized my thoughts on this & some of your guys thoughts as a tweet.
If you want pls add your opinion below and what tech projects you are looking at rn | 1 477 |
| 6 | https://x.com/0xkioto/status/2107449109334347890
getting back to the research. Here we measured relative strength based on launchpads / chains.
It shows which coins are having strong holders instead of just a strong narrative | 1 499 |
| 7 | https://x.com/0xkioto/status/2107196325737443773
Our second product we have been working on for a while.
The bottoming test. You can now directly see if your token is forming a bottom or not. All by onchain data instead of PA.
This is also the reason why I haven't been posting as actively in the last few days. We are hands on building to provide you with the best data.
New research will be posted tomorrow tho. Lets win | 1 657 |
| 8 | I recently went back and forth with a guy about memes and ceilings this cycle.
His opinion was that memes are in most parts hyperoptimized and even solved. There is no marginal buyer for memes without fundamental value above a certain market cap. Also the recent vamps on basically all runners just proofs that. People would rather take the chance at a 10x on a vamp than ride the runner to a billion.
His opinion was that going forward the only tokens that can reach a billion in market cap are tech coins with real innovation in AI / tech that have a good value accrual / outside bid mechanism to support the PA.
I think RWA paired memes sit somewhere in between which makes me think that these could hit significant market caps. Pure memes won’t be the runners of this cycle tho.
I would really appreciate some takes on this. The more I think about it the more I get what he means. | 1 908 |
| 9 | gm
I've been very busy working on sparsity the last few days so I'm not as active on the research side as before. Also I'm still actively trading and might need to accept that my AI thesis was more bag biased than I thought. I still think AI and the long ecosystem have the highest chance at producing a 1B runner this cycle but it looks like for a while the market will disagree.
I'm not selling but here the question is do I want to be right or make money. I still believe in the thesis but its definitely time to look at other stuff as well and not miss opportunities because I only focus on one thing.
With that said I have bought quite a bit of stuff over the last few days that I don't think can go to 1B but are decent bets for the time being.
We have also dropped 20 new coins on the sparsity holder strength leaderboard today. I tried my best to include all coins you guys suggested. If I missed any lmk in the comments. We are planning many more features for sparsity so stay tuned. | 1 919 |
| 10 | Today we saw max capitulation on Robinhood so I'll just share my thoughts on it.
The first reason I see is that the summit is widely seen as a nothing burger without any bullish news. This indicates that we dump further after its over and bottom eventually.
The take is that people want the entry after we sell off when nothing bullish happens.
A consensus entry never happens. So either the summit is bullish and we go up or people try to time the bottom and we go up anyway.
Vlad has never been more quiet than the last few days. Ozzy and a few other RH devs were invited to the summit. A big agentic trading announcement is already rumored. Even if this summit isn't solely crypto themed it isn't priced in at all.
The other reason I see is the rise of the term super intelligence. A lot of big names are referring to AI as SI and trump signed an executive order today.
All of that is bullish for the $SI token as its an attention token that purely works because of catalysts. That isn't necessarily bad as these coins can go up quickly.
In contrast to $AI which acts as the disguised native token for the long launchpad, is the main RWA runner on RH and has the best holder strength among all runners.
I also think $AI and $SI can perfectly coexist as one is the Inu of long and the other of stonk. I think SI would be an even better narrative if it wasn't seen as a PvP to AI.
Trumps executive order today also just changes the term in all future legal communication. All existing legal documents stay unchanged. Thats exactly what he did with the gulf of America.
If it wasn't obvious he also can't force companies to change their name to SI.
AI is stuck to peoples brains for a decade now. Look at how Twitter got renamed to X over 3 years ago and we still call it Twitter.
Sentiment for Robinhood is at the absolute bottom while TJR is making Tiktoks about the super inu.
I'm obviously bag biased but also think that SI is a great narrative to play if it wasn't all about PVP. I've hedged my AI position a little but remain super bullish on Robinhood. | 2 275 |
| 11 | what if this is the final capitulation candle right before the summit on $AI by traders unable to read the executive order.
If they did they would’ve seen that it just directs all federal agencies to make all their public services integrated with america.gov.
Nobody is renaming openai to opensi 🤣 | 2 041 |
| 12 | https://x.com/0xkioto/status/2104933291203735975
the first product for sparsity just launched in beta.
Holder strength and the metric map are now available on our website completely for free and in realtime.
We are adding more coins daily. Let us know which coins we should add below the sparsity tweet.
This is the first of many product we will launch. Stay tuned | 1 878 |
| 13 |  Just a little reminder.
My first research article I ever wrote was about $CARDS. I still stand behind the thesis and would go as far as saying that CARDS is my favorite token tbh.
I've been accumulating it ever since this article 8 months ago. It’s a multiyear hold for me if it’s needed so don’t follow me into this for a quick buck.
Maybe this is actually a coinbase partnership and we escape the chop PA
Other than that BUN looks absolutely fantastic. Already up 2x from our entry and much more to come. Tomorrow is an important day which I think will either bottom RH or send us a little lower before we bottom.
It’s consensus that the summit will be a nothing burger but people still see it as a catalyst. For that reason no bullish news can be enough to satisfy the market. Whatever happens I will either buy more AI lower or ride my bag to new highs
gn | 1 868 |
| 14 | https://x.com/0xkioto/status/2104527632377294874
new sparsity analysis.
We compared the patterns of the meme runners of last cycle to our current runners. Guess what. The pattern looks identical.
If you have conviction in your coins now is the time to sit on your hands | 1 764 |
| 15 | https://x.com/0xkioto/status/2104245815929610504
added a few thoughts and lmk about your opinion below the tweet pls | 1 732 |
| 16 | gm
Sentiment around memefi and long eco specifically looks absolutely horrible atm. This is usually the time when you either hold sit on your hands or accumulate.
I don’t think you should panic here. I remember when everyone was screaming that robinhood and cashcat is dead and it was just another chain that dies quickly. That marked the pico bottom and it ran to 200m in a week after that.
You are better off listening to the panic and evaluating it yourself.
One great trick to see if the fud matters is to imagine you have seen this fud when the coin was at ath. Would you have cared about it. If not you shouldn’t take it seriously now either and just sit on your hands.
With that said. It’s an illiquid Sunday just like the last one where everything was down and people were screaming to capitulate.
When there is blood on the streets you should be the one thinking rationally and not get influenced by others. | 2 503 |
| 17 | Sharing my thesis here now too because I think it’s one of the most innovative and interesting concepts I've seen lately.
-bun is the main eco token of mosh launchpad which is a layer on top of pons. Yes another launchpad but hear me out…
-founders publicly say that bun is the only way to get exposure to mosh eco & they are figuring out ways to connect bun to the parent companies equity (https://x.com/uv)
-before tokens can launch on mosh they need to fill a vault. That vault funds bundle, fee and inference costs)
-once the token launches ~70% of the supply is bundled and split across multiple agents that mm the coin. The parent company UV is specialized in agentic mm
-The trading fees get distributed to the people that initially filled the vault. Wallets that filled the vault on bun are up 100x already and continue to earn trading fees forever. This means there is a trade before a token even goes live
-This also limits the supply snipers can get which makes mosh the perfect place for reputable devs to launch because the risk of getting sniped are much lower
-The actual market cap of bun is ~10m here because 70% is in the hands of the MM (this grows overtime too which makes the token deflationary)
Another 10% are in the pons locker which makes it 20% float.
-in the future the trading fees will be used to bootstrap agents that accumulate as much of the coins over time as possible while profiting from the flows
-the dev is an og defi dev you guys might know as well (https://x.com/justinbebis)
I think the r/r here is great because there is a broad disinterest in the token because it looks like just another meme from the outside but from the inside its a well thought through mechanism that is also the native token of the mosh launchpad. We already saw how the disguised native token played out on AI
the eco is also heating up lately with quite a few projects launching there. This concept is a sort of security layer on top of pons which I like so it’s not another launchpad but something built on top of a working one.
lmk your guys thoughts and concerns. I will most likely do a proper write up on it with some visuals soon. For now you can also read my bros article about it
https://x.com/that1618guy/status/2103556990882791800
0x07ebb29a38fbcb41563817e5e19f2cec619c90d2 | 1 790 |
| 18 |  this is definitely the future. I can’t wait to support another dev that doesn’t want a coin and will abandon it in 2 weeks | 2 244 |
| 19 | One last time.
I WILL NEVER ASK YOU TO SEND ME MONEY / CLICK ANY LINKS THAT ARE SENT IN THE DISCUSSION GC
There are scammers impersonating me.
I just got a message from a dude that lost his hard earned dollars from his irl job due to this scam. I sent him his money because I felt bad for him but I will never do this again. If you fall for this it’s your own fault. Im trying my best to ban the scammers whenever I see it.
Be careful guys | 1 795 |
| 20 | gm
I think lately the market fees a little frothy and is searching for a meta. Stonk is slowly losing mindshare and tokens aren’t doing well. I could go more in depth on why I think this happens but it doesn’t matter. I've sold all my exposure to the Stonk ecosystem yesterday and will continue to look for new opportunities. Long on the other hand looks really interesting again. We should see another leg up very soon imo.
Last night Paid and e/acc ran pretty hard. My view might be contrarian but this is just not an innovation at all. I can’t believe we are going back to throwing money at randoms hoping they talk to us. It feels like a step back again.
I've bought a bag of $bun yesterday after reading an article about it. I went into detail on it in my fomo thesis but I really think it’s one of the most innovative projects I have seen in a while.
I really appreciate all the engagement on sparsity from the launch. We are dedicating more time to sparsity than actual trading lately to give you guys the best possible research and data to win your trades.
Have a great day guys | 1 927 |
