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频道帖子
The Fed is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50–3.75% this week, but the decision itself isn’t the real focus. Markets are far more sensitive to Powell’s tone, especially against a backdrop of oil-driven inflation, slowing growth, and a packed Big Tech earnings cycle.
There’s also a growing narrative around a potential leadership shift at the Fed, with investors already speculating whether a more dovish stance could emerge after Powell’s term ends on 15 May. For now, Jerome Powell is likely to maintain a cautious tone, avoiding any clear signal on rate cuts.
The takeaway? Markets may remain supported, but even a slightly more hawkish message could quickly shift sentiment.
What instruments are you trading this week? Let us in the comments.
| 2 | Will gold prices (XAUUSD) rise amid a vulnerable geopolitical situation?
- Gold prices rose on a weaker dollar, softer oil-driven inflation concerns, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, which boosted safe-haven demand.
- Lower oil prices eased inflation concerns and boosted rate-cut expectations, supporting gold prices via lower yields and a softer dollar.
- Geopolitical headlines remain a key driver of gold prices, while markets turn to US retail sales, the Fed leadership hearing, and US PMI data, which could shift views on the economy and the dollar.
- XAUUSD extended the rebound at a slower pace. The price is hovering around flattening EMAs, suggesting consolidation. However, the higher swings continue to support a bullish continuation bias.
- If XAUUSD breaks above 4850, the price may retest the resistance at 5070.
- Conversely, failure to break above 4850 may prompt the price to pull back toward the immediate support at 4600.
Disclaimers: This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk; please trade responsibly.
Trading is risky. Excess volatility increases risks further. Be cautious. As with all major geopolitical developments, price swings may be significant and fast-moving. Volatility may work against you as well as for you. | 0 |
| 3 |  没有文字... | 0 |
| 4 | Weekly Recap
- After the Middle East conflict briefly reached a ceasefire, the deal broke down and the Strait of Hormuz closed again, adding another layer of uncertainty to global energy markets.
- Bitcoin prices (BTCUSD) closed above 75,000 USD (+3.62%). Ether prices (ETHUSD) strengthened above 2,350 USD (+2.86%).
- Gold prices (XAUUSD) soared above 4,830 USD per troy ounce (+1.75%), while silver prices outperformed and approached 81.00 USD per troy ounce (+6.61%).
- The US dollar index (DXY) weakened to nearly 98.20 (-0.48%).
- Oil prices (USOIL) plunged below 83.50 USD per barrel (-7.58%).
- US indices continued recovering, with the tech sector outperforming again by closing 6.12% higher than the previous week.
- This week's focus turns to economic activity releases in the US and the UK, alongside the UK inflation data release, which may provide more signals for market participants.
Announcements
Tue - US Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar), US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
Wed- UK CPI (YoY) (Mar), US Crude Oil Inventories
Thu - US Initial Jobless Claims, US S&P Global Services PMI (Apr), US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
Disclaimers: This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk, please trade responsibly.
Trading is risky. Excess volatility increases risks further. Be cautious. As with all major economic releases, there could be significant price volatility with this type of announcement. Volatility may work against you as well as for you. | 0 |
| 5 |  Chart: GBPJPY, D1, Bullish
After breaking the Symmetrical Triangle pattern, GBPJPY rose and also broke the previous swing high. The price is above diverging bullish EMAs, indicating a potential uptrend extension.
If GBPJPY remains above 214.00, the price may rise toward the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension at around 217.37.
Conversely, a close below 214.00 may prompt a retest of the EMA21. | 0 |
| 6 |  没有文字... | 0 |
| 7 | Will gold prices (XAUUSD) come under pressure as ceasefire hopes fade?
- Gold prices consolidated, digesting negotiation-related news and the US blockade of Hormuz.
- Markets remained worried about the oil shock that could prolong inflation and push central banks toward a more hawkish stance.
- However, continued gold buying by the PBoC for a 17th straight month suggests structural central bank demand remains supportive.
- XAUUSD retreated from recent highs and closed below both EMAs. The unclear market structure indicates potential sideways momentum.
- If XAUUSD remains below 4850, the price may continue to consolidate within the 4600-4850 range.
- Conversely, breaching above both EMAs and 4850 may prompt the price to surge toward the next resistance at 5070.
Disclaimers: This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk; please trade responsibly.
Trading is risky. Excess volatility increases risks further. Be cautious. As with all major geopolitical developments, price swings may be significant and fast-moving. Volatility may work against you as well as for you. | 0 |
| 8 | Weekly Recap
- Despite earlier optimism over developments in the Middle East conflict, markets remained cautious over the volatility of the dynamics.
- Bitcoin prices (BTCUSD) closed above 73,000 USD (+8.61%). Ether prices (ETHUSD) outperformed again, closing above 2,280 USD (+10.69%).
- Gold prices (XAUUSD) approached 4,750 USD per troy ounce (+1.58%), while silver prices recovered above 75.00 USD per troy ounce (+3.93%).
- The US dollar index (DXY) fell below 99.00 (-1.49%).
- Oil prices (USOIL) plummeted to nearly 90.00 USD per barrel (-13.18%).
- US indices significantly recovered, with the tech sector outperforming by closing 5% higher than the previous week.
- Market focus shifts to inflation-related releases in the US (PPI) and EU (CPI), with GDP releases in China and the UK. These releases may guide markets on the economic outlook in the medium term.
Announcements
Mon - US Existing Home Sales (Mar)
Tue - US PPI (MoM) (Mar)
Wed - US Crude Oil Inventories
Thu - CN GDP (YoY) (1Q), UK GDP (MoM) (Feb), EU CPI (YoY) (Mar), US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr), US Initial Jobless Claims
Disclaimers: This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk, please trade responsibly.
Trading is risky. Excess volatility increases risks further. Be cautious. As with all major economic releases, there could be significant price volatility with this type of announcement. Volatility may work against you as well as for you. | 0 |
| 9 | Will supply jitters outweigh the ceasefire relief for oil prices (USOIL)?
- Oil prices partially recovered, lifted by renewed escalation in the region and the prolonged shutdown of Middle East shipping routes.
- With no final agreement in place, Tehran's assertion of control over the shipping routes and President Trump's continued warnings to maintain negotiating leverage continue to drive volatility in oil prices.
- Supply-side jitters resurfaced after a major producer flagged a 600k barrels-per-day hit to output capacity from earlier strikes, with a key bypass pipeline also damaged.
- After briefly retesting the ascending channel's lower bound, USOIL slightly rebounded toward 93.00. The price stays between both EMAs, indicating a potential sideways movement.
- If USOIL breaches above the resistance at 93.00 and EMA21, the price may advance to retest the psychological level at 100.00.
- Conversely, remaining below 93.00 may prompt a retest of the support at 84.00.
Disclaimers: This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk; please trade responsibly.
Trading is risky. Excess volatility increases risks further. Be cautious. As with all major geopolitical developments, price swings may be significant and fast-moving. Volatility may work against you as well as for you. | 0 |
| 10 |  没有文字... | 0 |
| 11 | Will gold prices (XAUUSD) extend gains amid a softer US dollar?
- Gold prices steadied above 4,700 USD per troy ounce, supported by a softer US dollar and easing inflation concerns amid expectations of ceasefire negotiations.
- However, recovery remains fragile, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has yet to significantly boost shipping activity, with Tehran reportedly seeking to charge transit fees.
- Market focus shifts toward the upcoming diplomatic talks over the weekend, while evolving geopolitical developments may continue to drive market sentiment.
- XAUUSD fluctuated around both flattening EMAs, with a lack of clear market structure reinforcing its sideways momentum.
- If XAUUSD remains below 4850, the price may consolidate within the 4580-4850 range.
- Conversely, breaking above 4850 may fuel a move toward the next psychological resistance at 5000.
Disclaimers: This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk; please trade responsibly.
Trading is risky. Excess volatility increases risks further. Be cautious. As with all major geopolitical developments, price swings may be significant and fast-moving. Volatility may work against you as well as for you. | 0 |
| 12 |  没有文字... | 0 |
