degen trading

Pre Market Thoughts - 7 Sep 26 US Labor day holiday with only Asia open. $NKY and $KOSPI both traded strongly with $NKY up 2% and $KOSPI up 4%. Last friday, we had strong AI performance in memory and neoclouds. This was seen in Asia with $0660 up 7% and $285A trading strongly too. Let me again bang the drum that across neos and memory - seller exhaustion has already set in. With Astra's release, i strongly believe that the tape ahead will read VERY conducive for the semiconductor trade. Ironically, software which has seen bids in may fall to a positioning squeeze. On my note on 1 Sep, i made the call for a bottoming out structure in semis. We stand on the cusp of a very rare set up where positioning, fundamentals AND catalysts all align together. The macro tape is also supportive with Bessent doing all he can to juice the markets ahead of the mid terms. On an index level, funds are NOT positioned for the upside and are overly hedged for the downside. Semis on a fwd basis are at where they were in Apr prior to the rally - which means that there has NOT been any expectations on the strong growth baked in yet. $NVDA stands out as the prime example. Crusoe also wrapped up funding at a 35B valuation, this is going to be Neocloud Autumn. in crypto, we had a very strong pumps since i made the call to "buy everything not nailed down". At this point, i am turning CAUTIOUS. Many of the alt leaders are seeing weakness and liquidity on CEXes seemed to have gone much lower. I do think that markets might experience a flash -30% crash across a few tokens where speculators have overly positioned themselves. The play here however is not to short. This is a bull market. Instead you should use the opportunity to observe and see what you should in fact be bidding on. My take with semis is that AI mania crosses over into crypto. Post the frenzy of memes, i would look for AI tokens to bid within crypto in the next drawdown leg. Do not fear the drawdowns, they give an opportunity for entry and to reset the tables. Good luck!