536
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536
We started the new trading week with a hiccup. Bitcoin has already shown growth above its range. As always, starting Monday with a hiccup is a bad sign. After all, Mondays often become days of false growth.
536
BTC has broken out of the descending wedge upwards, a bullish signal.
The immediate target is $115,000–$118,000, after which a correction to $105,000–$102,000 is likely.
The RSI shows that the market is already slightly overheated.
BTC.D will likely rise on the subsequent BTC correction.
536
Key Triggers of the Week (October 20–24, 2025)
🇨🇳 Monday – China GDP and Base Rate
Expectation: Moderate GDP growth ≈ 4.5–4.7%.
Risks: A weak figure will hit the stock and commodity markets → puts pressure on BTC and altcoins.
Positive: If GDP is > 5%, the "risk-on" will intensify – short-term growth in TOTAL and ETH.
🇪🇺 Tuesday – Lagarde (ECB)
The ECB will likely confirm a rate pause.
Soft signals → rising EUR/USD → weakening DXY → support for BTC.
Harsh statements → pressure on the crypto market.
🇬🇧🇺🇸 Wednesday – UK CPI and Oil Inventories
A rise in the UK CPI could heighten inflation fears → markets are cautious.
Oil inventories ↑ → cooling US inflation → positive for markets.
🇺🇸 Thursday – Benefits and the Fed Balance Sheet
Rising job applications → cooling labor market → greater chance of a Fed rate cut → positive for BTC.
Fed Balance Sheet: if it increases, liquidity is returning → asset growth.
🇺🇸🇪🇺 Friday – US CPI + PMI (EU/US)
The main day of the week.
CPI below forecast → the market is pricing in a rate cut soon → BTC and ETH are rising. Higher CPI → stronger dollar → crypto correction.
PMI below 50 → signs of recession, investors flee to hard assets (BTC, gold).
📊 Likely scenarios:
ScenarioCPI / macro dataMarket reactionBTC target
🟢 OptimisticCPI < forecast, weak bids, dovish Fed statementsLiquidity growth, BTC/ETH recovering$112k–$115k
🟠 NeutralCPI as forecast, no surprisesConsolidation$105k–$110k
🔴 NegativeCPI higher, Fed tough talkDXY strengthening, altcoins falling$97k–$100k
536
A cup-and-handle pattern is forming, indicating a possible upward breakout and increased Bitcoin market share.
If the price consolidates above 60.5–61%, a rise to 63% is likely, signaling a correction in altcoins and a shift in liquidity into BTC.
If the dominance drops below 58.5%, the scenario changes—the alt season will begin.
536
A major player begins to suppress the price with a large order of 1000 BTC.
The immediate breakout target is 110k, falling to 108k and then 105k.
I believe this scenario will play out in the next 1-3 days.
536
Bitcoin Realized Price 54900
If the market were to go down for one year, would you buy your entire deposit at 54900?
🔥 = YES!
👍 = NO, I'd buy even lower!
536
The US is considering imposing a 500% tariff on China for purchasing Russian oil.
According to US Treasury Secretary Bessent, 85 out of 100 senators support Trump's initiative.
536
Bitcoin is trading at a high price!
Only available on COINBASE. Binance looks like it's ready to dive down
现已上线!2025 年 Telegram 研究 — 年度关键洞察 
