Macro Trader

Bottom-line: 전광석화. China Stock Bounce Is Short-Lived on News of Quarantine Debate.

Bottom-line: 높아진 변동성 덕분에 밀레니엄 자산운용과 같이 하나의 펀드 기준가가 다수의 다른 전략을 사용하는 펀드 매니저들에 의해 구성되는, 소위 멀티 매니저 펀드가 좋은 성과를 거두고 있음. 83조원 상당의 자산을 운용 중인 동사는 올해 9월까지 9.7%의 수익을 거두며 미국 지수의 -22% 하락과 대조적이었음. 미국 지수의 옵션을 기초자산으로 산정되는 변동성 지수가 전년 대비 79% 상승함에 따라 두 해에 걸쳐 얻을 수익을 한 해에 얻었다고 함. 거대한 자금을 운용하기 위해 회사는 i) 운용자산, ii) 공정한 보상, iii) 활용할 수 있는 자원, iv) 자율성을 보장하는 대신에 과거와 달리 펀드 매니저에게 투자자들과의 관계가 어떤지, 자산을 어떻게 확장 시키는지 등의 요구도 늘어났음. A high volatility environment is great for multi-manager firms like Millennium Management LLC, according to Bobby Jain, co-chief investment officer one of the world’s largest hedge funds. In times of volatility, “you can get two years worth of trading in one year,” Jain said at the Capitalize for Kids Investors Conference in Toronto on Wednesday. Millennium manages more than $58 billion and its flagship fund gained 9.7% this year through September, while the S&P 500 Index has tumbled 22%. The firm has done it in an environment of rising market turbulence: the Cboe Volatility Index, a gauge of market-wide fear, is up nearly 79% this year. Asked about the impact of the pandemic on investment firms, Jain said one of the biggest changes has been more staff wanting to work from home. “Our business has internationalized dramatically in the last two-and-a-half years” as people moved to be closer to their families, he said, adding that it also presented a new challenge as the firm sorted out regulatory relationships when working out of new countries. This year, Millennium expanded its emerging markets team in Dubai and is opening two new outposts in tax-friendly Florida. In the war for talent, Jain said portfolio managers have become more sophisticated when they consider new roles. Now they’re not just asking how much capital they can manage, he said. They also want to know what the terms of the capital are, how stable the cash is, what the relationship with investors is like and what the process is to scale assets. They also value strong risk-management and execution technology and autonomy -- including the right to hire teams as they like. “So we offer those four things,” Jain said referring to assets, fair compensation, resources and autonomy. Millennium will be returning $15 billion to investors at the end of this year as it continues to bring in longer-term client capital -- a move it has been making for some years. The effort is part of the firm’s view that more stable capital is a key tool in attracting and retaining talent. 

• 사담 두 시간 전에 A4, arial font, size 10pt로 한 페이지 정도 되는 내용의 기사가 이미 있는데, 속보로 시장 참여자가 클릭할 만한 이슈를 내보내는 행태는 언론사가 얼마나 노이즈를 만드나 알 수 있는 일.

Bottom-line: 제임스 블라드는 인플레이션이 진정된다면 내년 초에 공격적인 금리인상이 마무리 될 수 있다고 답변함. 하지만, 이 답변의 세부적인 내용을 살펴보면 인플레이션이 진정될 경우를 가정한 것임. 그는 중앙은행이 끝없이 금리를 인상할 순 없고, 다만 의미있는 인플레이션 하락의 데이터가 보이는 수준까지 금리인상을 빠르고 더 높게 할 수 있다는 여지를 남김. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he expects the central bank to end its ‘’front-loading” of aggressive interest-rate hikes by early next year and shift to keeping policy sufficiently restrictive with small adjustments as inflation cools. “You do have to think about what the reasonable level is,” Bullard said Wednesday in a Bloomberg TV interview with Kathleen Hays in St. Louis, suggesting that he doesn’t currently see the need to push rates higher than officials have already projected. The goal is to move to “some meaningfully restrictive level” that will push inflation down.“. But it doesn’t mean that you go up forever,” he said. “In 2023 I think we’ll be closer to the point where we can run what I would call ordinary monetary policy,” he said. “Now you’re at the right level of the policy rate, you’re putting downward pressure on inflation, but you can adjust as the data come in in 2023.”. Bullard said the November meeting result “has been more or less priced in to markets” for a 75 basis-point hike, though he’d prefer to wait until the meeting to decide his preference for the size of the move.

Bottom-line: 제임스 블라드는 인플레이션이 진정된다면 내년 초에 공격적인 금리인상이 마무리 될 수 있다고 답변함. 하지만, 이 답변의 세부적인 내용을 살펴보면 인플레이션이 진정될 경우를 가정한 것임. 그는 중앙은행이 끝없이 금리를 인상할 순 없고, 다만 의미있는 인플레이션 하락의 데이터가 보이는 수준까지 금리인상을 빠르고 더 높게 할 수 있다는 여지를 남김. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he expects the central bank to end its ‘’front-loading” of aggressive interest-rate hikes by early next year and shift to keeping policy sufficiently restrictive with small adjustments as inflation cools. “You do have to think about what the reasonable level is,” Bullard said Wednesday in a Bloomberg TV interview with Kathleen Hays in St. Louis, suggesting that he doesn’t currently see the need to push rates higher than officials have already projected.  The goal is to move to “some meaningfully restrictive level” that will push inflation down.“. But it doesn’t mean that you go up forever,” he said. “In 2023 I think we’ll be closer to the point where we can run what I would call ordinary monetary policy,” he said. “Now you’re at the right level of the policy rate, you’re putting downward pressure on inflation, but you can adjust as the data come in in 2023.”. Bullard said the November meeting result “has been more or less priced in to markets” for a 75 basis-point hike, though he’d prefer to wait until the meeting to decide his preference for the size of the move.

Bottom-line: 미국 상장 중국 주식의 지수가 하루에 -7.1% 하락하며 9년래 최저치를 기록함. 지난 3월 중국이 강력한 시장 안정 조치를 발표 한 이후 상승폭을 모두 되돌린 것이며, 주요 구성 기업 다수가 하루 -10% 이상 하락함. 소비재 및 기술주 모두 부진의 늪에 빠진 이유는 4개월래 큰 폭 증가한 바이러스 환자, 그리고 전례없는 경제지표 발표 연기에 따른 우려였음. Chinese stocks listed in the US tumbled Wednesday as concerns over the nation’s economic outlook and a rise of Covid cases in the middle of the twice-a-decade party congress weighed on investor sentiment. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index sank 7.1%, its steepest one-day decline since May 9, putting the gauge at its lowest closing level in more than nine years. The index has erased all its gains since mid-March, when Beijing announced a strong push to stabilize its markets. Nio Inc., Li Auto Inc., Xpeng Inc. and Bilibili Inc. were among the worst performers, each sliding more than 10%. Some of China’s largest tech companies listed in New York including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., JD.com Inc. and Baidu Inc. also sank. Wednesday’s selloff came after shares listed in China and Hong Kong dropped amid a rout in consumer stocks and concerns about the region’s earnings outlook. Adding to the wall of worry for investors was the surge in Beijing’s Covid cases to the highest in four months and the government’s unprecedented silence on key economic indicators. The Hang Seng Tech Index slumped 4.2% overnight, to close near a record low level, as Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee’s policy speech disappointed some investors.

US stocks halted a two-day rally, with Treasury yields hitting multiyear highs on Fed rate hike concerns. Earnings enthusiasm waned, helping push the S&P 500 down 0.7%. Ten-year yields jumped 12 bps to 4.13% while 2-years rose to the highest since 2007.

Docent: 연방공개시장위원회의 19명이 정책금리를 결정하지만, 이들의 생각에 강한 영향을 주는 이들이 중앙은행의 내부 직원들임. 10월 12일에 공개 된 내용은 겉으로 보기엔 전혀 해로울게 없어보임. 하지만 '잠재성장률'을 낮춘 것의 의미를 되새겨 볼 필요가 있음. 그리고 이것이 왜 아직까지 인플레이션이 여전히 높은 상태에 있으며, 왜 여전히 실업률이 낮은지를 이해하기 해주고, 나아가 중앙은행이 더 많은 금리인상을 해야 하는 이유를 줌. 의사록을 보면 미국의 잠재성장률에 대한 예상치가 상당히 하향 조정되었음. 잠재성장률은 인플레이션이나 통화긴축이 필요하지 않은 수준을 말하는데, 새로운 추정치가 공개되지도 이전의 추정치도 밝혀지지 않았지만, 이를 낮춘 것 자체가 정책적으로 상당한 의미를 가짐. 잠재성장률을 낮출수록 현재의 경제성장률이 너무나 '과열' 된 상태라는 해석으로 이어지며, 이것이 왜 높은 물가와 낮은 실업률의 상태에 머물러 있는지를 설명해줌. 하향 된 잠재성장률로 계산하면 2025년까지 실업률은 인플레이션을 일으키지 않을 수준보다 아래에 머무르는 과열 상태에 있을 것임. 그럼에도 불구하고 물가에 대해서는 내년 2.6%로 예상하는데, 이 부분에서는 중앙은행 직원들이 다소 낙관적 추정을 했다고 평가함. 즉, 에너지 가격이 하락하고 수요와 공급이 균형을 찾는다는 '낙관적 가정'이 들어갔기 때문임. 경제가 지금처럼 과열 된 상태로 머문다면 노동시장의 수요에 따른 임금 압력을 줄이기 위해 노동시장이 더 큰 폭으로 침체를 보일만큼 더 큰 폭으로, 또는 더 오랜 기간 정책금리를 올려야 할 수 있음.

“I see a federal funds rate that is going higher, an unemployment rate that is going higher, and a path of inflation that is going down slower” compared to what officials projected in their September forecasts, English said.

The Federal Reserve’s influential staff judges that under the surface the US economy is running even hotter than they thought, helping to explain why inflation remains at a 40-year high and providing reason to expect even more interest-rate hikes. Tucked within 12 dense pages describing the Fed’s September policy meeting last week was a statement concerning a seemingly innocuous yet vital estimate that the staff use as a building block for internal economic forecasts. Their gauge of US potential output was “revised down significantly,” the minutes showed, due to disappointing productivity growth and slow gains in labor force participation. Potential gross domestic product is essentially an estimate of how fast the economy can run without breaking a sweat in the form of tightening resources and higher inflation. The new estimate was not disclosed -- nor was the prior one. Even so, “the policy implication is significant,” said Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. “Lower potential growth means the economy has been more overheated last year and this year than realized, and it will take more rate hikes or a longer period of below-trend growth to close the output gap,” said Wong, a former Fed economist. Fed staff don’t set policy. That’s the job of the 19 officials who sit on the Federal Open Market Committee. But they do provide very important inputs that help shape the thinking of policymakers, who are currently raising interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s to curb runaway inflation. Wong estimates the US central bank will deliver a fourth consecutive 75 basis-point rate increase next month and keep going until they get rates in the 5% range next year. Officials last month projected rates peaking in 2023 at 4.6%, compared to a current target range of 3% to 3.25%. Their median estimate for long-term sustainable growth was 1.8%, though the diversity of views is wide with a range of 1.6% to 2.2%. The US economy grew at a 5.7% pace in the final quarter of 2021, compared with the fourth quarter of the previous year. If the staff revised down its estimate for potential, it suggests the economy was above its longer-run trend by even more than initially thought and remains above it, even though growth is slowing. Like a rocket whose trajectory is overshooting its target, if the economy’s level is still above its longer-run trend, that explains why inflation continues to be broad and stubborn. “We got way above potential in 2021, the level of GDP is still way above potential, and that explains the persistence of inflation,” said John Roberts, an economic consultant and former head of the Fed Board’s macroeconomic modeling team. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 6.6% from a year ago, the fastest pace since 1982. The broader gauge was up 8.2% from a year earlier. Growing much faster than potential also helps explain why employers added 562,000 jobs a month on average in 2021 as the labor market recovered from a brief pandemic-induced recession. The staff also said that unemployment was expected to rise more slowly than they previously estimated and stay below their estimate of a level of joblessness that won’t stoke inflation pressures until the end of 2025. Nevertheless, inflation measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge was expected to be 2.6% next year, a remarkable deceleration from 6.2% in August. The minutes said the staff estimate is based on a view that supply and demand fall back into balance with lower energy prices. “The staff has been relatively optimistic,” said William English, a professor at the Yale School of Management. “There is some evidence that suggests near term inflation expectations are getting built into wage inflation and that could perpetuate.” English, who was previously ran the Fed’s powerful Division of Monetary Affairs, also pointed out that the economy appears fairly resilient, and the labor market may need to slow substantially to reduce demand and wage pressures.

언제나 그렇듯 악필은 양해주시고, 바르고 고운 국어를 좋아하지만 한글은 더 악필이라 부득 영문으로 필기했습니다. 🙇🏻‍♂️

5. 이상의 내용이 최근 몇 일 간 Bloomberg에서 다룬 정책 관련 기사를 종합한 것입니다.