CA Varun Agarwal (SEBI RA Regn.No. INH000014474)

If you have really made good money in any stocks in the last few weeks and the valuations are very expensive now protect your gains by putting a stop loss. Other than that, don’t panic. Don’t sell the good stocks in your portfolio.

reason for the knee jerk reaction in the markets👆

Trump on the MoU: 'I think it's over'

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Some of the sectors that were in the spotlight over the last few months and delivered exceptional returns are now witnessing a phase of consolidation and profit booking. Themes such as artificial intelligence and power, which attracted significant investor interest and saw sharp rallies, have started cooling off after their strong run-up. A similar trend is also visible in select defence stocks, where investors are booking profits after a sustained period of outperformance. Such corrections are a normal part of every bull market and should not be viewed negatively. In fact, they often create opportunities for investors who could not participate in the earlier rally. The long-term growth drivers behind these sunrise sectors remain intact, and the current correction may provide a better risk-reward entry point compared to chasing stocks after a sharp rally. Therefore, if you have missed these themes so far, this may be a good time to prepare rather than rush. Create a watchlist of high-quality companies from sectors such as artificial intelligence, power, and defence, track their valuations and business developments closely, and be ready to accumulate them gradually if the correction continues. Patience and disciplined stock selection often generate better results than chasing momentum at market peaks.

Indian markets witnessed a weak session yesterday. The Nifty attempted to break above the important 24,500 resistance zone but failed to sustain at higher levels. This led to some profit booking during the session, and the index eventually closed at 24,398. Over the last few trading sessions, one of the signs we were closely watching was the relatively muted participation from the broader market. Small-cap and mid-cap stocks were not participating meaningfully in the rally, which suggested that market sentiment was gradually losing some momentum even as the benchmark indices moved higher. With weak global cues, the Nifty is likely to open near the 24,200 zone today. However, if you recall, we have consistently highlighted the 23,900 zone as a strong support level for the index. We continue to maintain the same view. Even if the market opens with a gap-down today, we do not see any reason to alter our short-term outlook unless the Nifty decisively breaks below the 23,900 support zone, which appears unlikely in today's session. Therefore, while the sentiment for the day may remain weak and volatility could stay elevated, our broader short-term view on the market remains positive. Investors should avoid reacting emotionally to short-term declines. Instead, any meaningful dip can be viewed as an opportunity for fresh purchases or averaging in quality companies that remain fundamentally strong and aligned with their long-term investment thesis.

U.S. markets witnessed a weak session yesterday, with all the three major indices closing in the red. The Dow Jones declined 0.25%, the Nasdaq fell 1.16%, and the S&P 500 closed lower by 0.45%. The weakness was largely driven by risk-off sentiment and concerns around geopolitical developments. U.S. futures are trading largely flat this morning, providing little comfort after yesterday's decline. The U.S. 10-year bond yield has moved up to 4.5%, which remains a headwind for equity markets as higher yields tend to reduce the attractiveness of risk assets. Brent crude oil has risen to around $76 per barrel due to the escalating tensions in West Asia. Higher oil prices are generally a negative for global markets and particularly for major oil-importing economies such as India. The Dollar Index remains stable near 100. Gold is holding steady around $4,135, while silver is trading near $60. The resilience in precious metals reflects continued demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty. Most Asian markets are trading weak this morning, mirroring the cautious sentiment seen in global markets. Rising crude oil prices, elevated bond yields, and weak equity markets across regions are weighing on investor confidence. Overall, global cues appear weak for today. Given the negative setup across international markets and the rise in crude oil prices, Indian markets are likely to witness a gap-down opening and may remain volatile through the session.

The Middle East crisis escalated sharply after Iran allegedly attacked three commercial vessels, including a Qatari LNG tanker, in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the United States launched a large-scale military operation targeting more than 80 Iranian military assets, including air-defense systems, drone launch sites, missile facilities and coastal surveillance infrastructure. Washington said the strikes were retaliation for Iran’s violation of a ceasefire agreement and attacks on civilian shipping, while Tehran condemned the action as a major breach of the truce and warned of a strong response. The renewed conflict has heightened fears of disruption to global oil supplies, pushed crude prices higher, and cast further doubt on ongoing efforts to negotiate a permanent peace agreement between the two countries.

Good Morning Friends ☕

The Indian government is preparing the next phase of its semiconductor strategy, called “Semicon 2.0”, which will significantly expand incentives beyond semiconductor fabrication plants to support the entire chip ecosystem. While the first phase focused mainly on attracting chip fabrication, assembly and packaging investments, the new policy will also provide incentives to chip design startups and suppliers of semiconductor-grade chemicals, gases, materials and manufacturing equipment. The objective is to build a complete domestic semiconductor supply chain, reduce import dependence and improve India's resilience in a strategically important industry. The programme will also focus on talent development and indigenous research in critical semiconductor technologies. So far, the India Semiconductor Mission has approved 12 projects across chip design, fabrication and packaging, with facilities from Micron, CG Power-Renesas and Kaynes already commencing production. Overall, Semicon 2.0 signals a shift from building a few semiconductor plants to creating a comprehensive semiconductor ecosystem in India.

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Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) reported a strong Q1 FY27 business update, with consolidated revenue expected to grow in the high teens year-on-year, driven by broad-based demand across India and improving performance in international markets. The company expects double-digit volume growth in India, supported by strong momentum in Home Care and Personal Care categories, while margins are likely to improve as the sharp inflation in palm oil and other raw materials begins to ease. International businesses, particularly Indonesia and Africa, are also showing signs of recovery. Management remains confident of achieving its medium-term goal of high single-digit volume growth and double-digit revenue growth.

Indian power transmission and distribution (T&D) sector could face margin pressure if the government eases restrictions on Chinese imports for high-voltage power equipment. India currently restricts imports from Chinese manufacturers through mandatory approvals and testing requirements to encourage domestic manufacturing and reduce strategic dependence. If these curbs are relaxed, Chinese companies could re-enter the market with lower-priced products, increasing competition and potentially affecting the pricing power and profitability of Indian T&D equipment manufacturers.

6 SME IPOs to list today. The IPO season is slowly coming back. It is time to look at capital market theme stocks that were beaten down till now due to lack of IPOs. Companies whose main business is merchant banking. Time to take a contra bet.

Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs) made a strong start to FY27 by spending ₹2.10 lakh crore in capital expenditure during the April–June quarter, achieving nearly 25% of their full-year capex target of ₹8.43 lakh crore. This represents a healthy 26% year-on-year increase and is higher than the 22% achievement in the same period last year, indicating the government's continued focus on infrastructure and public investment. The biggest contributors were the Railway Board (₹97,160 crore), NHAI (₹45,130 crore), NTPC (₹9,925 crore), ONGC (₹6,907 crore) and Power Grid (₹6,380 crore). Railways and roads together accounted for the bulk of spending, while energy-sector CPSEs such as ONGC, IOC, BPCL and HPCL also maintained strong investment momentum despite crude oil volatility. Since government capex has a significant multiplier effect on economic activity, the data is positive for sectors linked to railways, roads, power, engineering, construction, capital goods, EPC contractors, cement and industrial manufacturing, and suggests that public-sector-led investment remains a key driver of India's growth in FY27.

Indian markets had a good session yesterday. While the benchmark indices witnessed a healthy move, participation from the broader market was relatively muted, with small-cap and mid-cap stocks not contributing significantly to the rally. If you recall, we have consistently highlighted the 23,800 zone as a strong support level for the Nifty and maintained a bullish stance over the past couple of weeks. That view has played out well. The Nifty has recovered strongly from those levels and yesterday touched its 200-day exponential moving average, closing near the higher end of the day’s range at 24,430. The zone around 24,500 now becomes an important level to watch. If the Nifty manages to decisively cross and sustain above this level, it would further strengthen the technical setup and make us more bullish on the markets in the short term. Such a move could also trigger a meaningful short-covering rally, adding further momentum to the uptrend. Overall, the market structure continues to improve, and the recovery from the recent lows has been encouraging. Investors who have been regularly following our market commentary and remained disciplined with their approach have navigated this phase well. As long as the broader trend remains supportive, we believe opportunities will continue to emerge in the market going forward.

U.S. markets had a positive session yesterday, with the Dow Jones gaining 0.29%, the Nasdaq rising 1.12%, and the S&P 500 advancing 0.72%. Technology stocks led the gains, helping the broader market close firmly in positive territory. However, the momentum is not carrying through fully into today. U.S. futures are trading mixed, with Nasdaq futures in the red, indicating some caution after the recent rally. The U.S. 10-year bond yield remains steady at around 4.4%. Brent crude oil is trading near $72 per barrel. A notable development is the recent reduction in official selling prices by Saudi Aramco. Lower oil prices are generally positive for major oil-importing nations such as India, as they help contain inflation and support economic growth. The Dollar Index remains stable around 100. Gold is largely unchanged at around $4,154, while silver continues to hold firm near $62. The stability in precious metals suggests that investors are maintaining a balanced approach between risk assets and defensive allocations. Most Asian markets are trading in the red this morning, reflecting a cautious undertone across the region. With mixed U.S. futures, stable commodity prices, and weak Asian markets, the overall global setup appears neutral. Indian markets are expected to witness a flat to slightly positive start, with domestic factors and the ongoing earnings season likely to drive market direction through the day.