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📊 XAUUSD moves sideways ahead of the U.S. interest rate decision Gold (XAU) held above the $2,650 support level on Monday ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision as market participants assessed the monetary policy outlook for 2025. 👉 Possible effects for traders The Fed is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the range to 4.25–4.5%. However, there is uncertainty about the extent of future reductions, particularly in light of the prospect of higher inflation under the new administration. The latest S&P Global Flash Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) data revealed that U.S. private sector activity expanded faster in December. This suggests that the Fed may limit rate cuts in the coming year, which could dampen demand for the precious metal. A surge in service industries primarily drove the growth, while the manufacturing sector continued to struggle. Still, XAUUSD has gained about 29% this year, positioning for its largest annual gain since 2010. The rise has been driven by U.S. policy easing, strong demand for safe-haven assets, continued global central bank purchases, and geopolitical tensions. XAUUSD continues to hold above the $2,650 support level during Asian and early European trading hours. The U.S. Retail Sales report will come out at 1:30 p.m. UTC and may affect gold. Higher-than-expected numbers will bring the pair below the $2,650 support level, while softer data will ease the pressure on the pair. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://octa.click/iRAl5bCodpM Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 Euro gains ground amid political news and anticipation of the Fed meeting The euro (EUR) gained 0.33% on Monday despite the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remaining near a three-week high as traders awaited the Federal Reserve (Fed) meetings this week for clues on the possible interest rate path in 2025. 👉 Possible effects for traders Yesterday, the euro was bombarded with a series of political and economic news. First, Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor, lost a parliamentary confidence vote, meaning that Germany will now hold snap federal elections as early as February. Typically, the market doesn't like political uncertainty, but traders viewed the news as positive because it would allow the establishment of a new and possibly more effective government. Second, eurozone Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs), released by S&P Global, were generally better than expected. The services industry grew and offset a long-running contraction in the manufacturing industry. At the same time, Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank (ECB) President, said on Monday that the ECB will cut interest rates further if inflation continues to ease towards its 2% target. Overall, EURUSD is at a crossroads, and this week's Fed decision and U.S. inflation data will play a key role in determining the pair's direction for the rest of the year. The markets are certain the Fed will announce a 25-basis-point cut at its policy meeting on Wednesday. The CME's FedWatch tool puts the probability of such a cut at almost 97%. 'I don't think the debate is whether the Fed cuts or not; it's always about forward outlook', said Eugene Epstein, head of structuring for North America at Moneycorp. EURUSD was falling during the Asian and early European trading sessions. The U.S. Retail sales report, due at 1:30 p.m. UTC today, may add some volatility to all USD pairs. Higher-than-expected figures may push EURUSD towards 1.04740. Conversely, lower-than-expected results may pull the pair above 1.05340. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://octa.click/iRAl5bCodpM Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 AUDUSD stays low ahead of the U.S. interest rate decision The Australian dollar (AUD) held steady on Monday, as the near-term outlook for the currency depended on the prospects for U.S. interest rates. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) decreased towards approximately 106.7, as investors took a cautious approach ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Reserve's (Fed) meeting. 👉 Possible effects for traders This week's key event is the Fed policy meeting on Wednesday. The U.S. central bank is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bps), bringing the range to 4.25–4.5%. The most significant data of the meeting will be the guidance on future easing measures. Due to concerns about the potential resurgence of inflation, especially with Donald Trump's impending return to the White House, market expectations for additional reductions in 2025 have decreased. Futures indicate only two rate reductions the next year. Also, the latest S&P Global Flash Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) data revealed stronger-than-expected growth in private sector activity this month. Service industries strengthened while the manufacturing sector continued to struggle. In Australia, a recent Westpac survey indicated a decrease in consumer confidence during December, with a more pessimistic outlook on the overall economic situation. Also, market participants are awaiting the Australian government's budget announcement, which is anticipated to reveal larger fiscal deficits. Weakened economic activity in China, Australia's largest trading partner, has contributed to the deficits. On Tuesday, the three-year government bond yield fell by 4 bps, towards 3.84%, following an upward trend for four consecutive weeks. The ten-year bond yield also declined by 2 basis points, towards 4.3%. AUDUSD continues to move sideways within a range of 0.63500–0.63800 during Asian and early European trading hours. The U.S. Retail Sales report, coming out at 1:30 p.m. UTC, may affect AUDUSD today. Higher-than-expected data may push the pair downwards towards 0.63500, while softer data may support AUDUSD. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://octa.click/iRAl5bCodpM Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

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After hitting a two-week low against the U.S. dollar, the yen bounced back as wholesale inflation data surprised markets. Japan’s corporate goods price index (CGPI) rose 3.7% in November, beating the 3.4% forecast and marking the fastest annual growth since July 2023. Trade Currencies: https://bit.ly/attexpertoption

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📊 Gold prices retreat slightly, but bullish sentiment prevails Gold (XAU) price dropped by 1.2% on Friday after hitting a five-week high the day before. Despite the decline, prices are still set to rise this week due to anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). 👉 Possible effects for traders ‘Gold had an explosive year, and we're getting into the tail end of the year, which might see some unwinding going into the last few weeks, but I think that's going to be short-lived and believe that gold is going to continue to move much higher', said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Indeed, gold has surged towards record highs this year, driven by a looser monetary policy pursued by the Fed and most major central banks worldwide. An additional bullish factor is the rise in safe-haven demand due to geopolitical and economic uncertainty and growing structural purchases by central banks, especially by the People's Bank of Bank (PBOC). Traders now see a 97% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut at the Fed's meeting on 17-18 December. However, the outlook for subsequent cuts is rather uncertain. ‘Generally speaking, we see a stronger U.S. economy next year, which should leave less room for rate cuts and should thus bring less tailwinds for gold’, said Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer. XAUUSD was rising slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, investors will focus on Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) reports released by the S&P Global. Arguably, the most impactful release is the U.S. PMI, due at 2:45 p.m. UTC. Higher-than-expected figures may reduce the probability of future rate cuts by the Fed, putting bearish pressure on XAUUSD. Conversely, lower-than-expected results could pull the gold price slightly higher. Key levels to watch are $2,649 and $2,668. ‘Spot gold may retest support at $2,642 per ounce, with a good chance of breaking below this level and falling towards the $2,611 to $2,623 range’, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://octa.click/iRAl5bCodpM Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 Euro rebounds, but weak fundamentals limit growth potential The euro (EUR) gained 0.33% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Friday even though the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained near a three-week high, as investors priced in the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates more slowly next year. 👉 Possible effects for traders For the past month, EURUSD has been essentially stuck in a tight range between 1.04500 and 1.06100. Numerous bearish factors, such as the sluggish eurozone economy, the dovish European Central Bank (ECB), and the possibility of Donald Trump's implementing new trade tariffs on European goods, have been mostly priced in. At the same time, the eurozone's underlying economic fundamentals remain weak, preventing investors from taking significant long positions on the EURUSD. The most significant bearish factor is the divergence in investors' monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed. Markets expect a Fed rate cut at the upcoming meeting but only price a roughly 24% chance of another reduction in January, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, interest rate swaps market data implies that the ECB will cut the rates at every meeting until June 2025. The probability that the eurozone base rate will be just 2% on 5 June 2025 stands at 56%. Therefore, although EURUSD has been stabilising over the past three weeks, failing to set a new low, market sentiment remains cautious. Investors are hesitant to adopt a bullish outlook due to underlying economic concerns, which means that rallies in the pair are likely to be sold. EURUSD was rising during the Asian trading session but weakened during the early European trading hours. Today, investors will focus on Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) released by the S&P Global. German data is due at 8:30 a.m., and the data for the eurozone is due at 9:00 a.m., while the U.S. figures will be released at 2:45 p.m. UTC. Traders expect the European PMIs to improve slightly but remain below the critical 50 mark, which separates economic contraction from expansion. Conversely, they expect the U.S. figures to weaken but remain close to the 50 mark. A rise in eurozone PMI, especially if it is accompanied by a drop in U.S. PMI, may pull EURUSD 1.05700. Otherwise, the pair may continue to weaken and possibly drop below the 1.04500 level. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://octa.click/iRAl5bCodpM Partner Code ➡️ 3788810