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📊 GBP weakens on a more dovish outlook from the Bank of England
The British pound (GBP) extended its recent decline on Friday after the U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and output data were below the forecast. The pair finished the week with a 0.95% drop.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The combination of persistent U.S. inflation, potentially slowing the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), and weakening economic growth in the U.K. has prompted the Bank of England (BOE) to adopt a more accommodative approach. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated a gradual easing of four rate reductions in 2025. This should limit the rise of the pound at the end of 2024. Although expectations for the BOE's interest rate decision at the 19 December meeting remain unchanged, market expectations are pricing in a narrower path for U.K. and U.S. interest rates in 2025, continuing to pressure the British pound.
In 2025, traders will need to consider whether the Fed may halt its rate reductions or even consider increasing rates if inflation fails to reach the 2% target. As for the British pound, traders should consider whether the Bank of England may adopt a more accommodating monetary policy if inflation persists, especially given market expectations of only three interest rate reductions in 2025 compared to the four anticipated by Bailey.
GBPUSD was rising during Asian and early European trading hours, trying to regain some Friday losses. Market participants wait for the U.K. S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) flash data report, coming out today at 9:30 a.m. UTC today. A higher-than-expected number will be bullish for GBPUSD, while lower data may put additional bearish pressure on the pair.
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