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China's economic data offers temporary relief for euro
On Thursday, the euro (EUR) lost 0.28% against the U.S. dollar (USD) after better-than-expected U.S. Retail Sales and Jobless Claims reports pulled the greenback towards a fresh two-month high. An interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) also added bearish pressure on EURUSD.
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Possible effects for traders
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has now approached a 200-day moving average. If it breaks above this level, it could quickly rise towards 105.000, causing other currencies to decline further. There is a good chance that the DXY may continue rising as U.S. macroeconomic data has been improving lately, forcing investors to expect fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). U.S. core retail sales jumped by 0.5% in September, above an expected 0.1% increase. Additionally, U.S. weekly unemployment claims were at just 241,000, below the anticipated 260,000. Given these upbeat statistics, the market is now pricing in less than four 25-basis-point (bps) rate cuts by the Fed over the next seven months.
Meanwhile, the ECB appears to be taking a more assertive stance on monetary policy easing. Although yesterday's rate cut by the ECB was entirely expected, the post-meeting statement contained plenty of dovish details. Policymakers noted that inflation in the eurozone was increasingly under control while the outlook for the bloc's economy was worsening fast. Christine Lagarde, ECB President, didn't provide hints about the future interest rate path, but four sources close to the matter told Reuters that another rate cut in December is likely unless economic or inflation data turns around in the coming weeks.
EURUSD was rising slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Earlier today, China unveiled several reports suggesting a positive economic outlook. The data revealed a surge in industrial output and a better-than-expected rise in retail sales. As China is the eurozone's key importer, the data managed to push the euro up a little. No major events are scheduled for today, but the U.S. building permits data at 12:30 p.m. UTC, and the speech by FOMC Member Christopher Waller at 4:10 p.m. UTC may affect USD and related pairs. Fundamentally, EURUSD remains in a bearish trend, and traders are generally advised to sell the rallies.
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