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EURUSD continues to struggle as ECB rate cut looms
The euro (EUR) continued to decline for the fifth consecutive day against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Tuesday as traders believe that the European Central Bank (ECB) will pursue a more dovish monetary policy than the Federal Reserve (Fed).
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Possible effects for traders
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has now reached a two-month high on expectations that the Fed will proceed with only modest interest rate cuts over the next year and a half. Indeed, analysts bet that the dollar's ongoing rise will likely continue due to the lingering uncertainty surrounding global politics and the U.S. election outcome. 'We think the trend for the greenback will remain intact as long as the macro data remains above water. Volatility and the U.S. dollar tend to rise in tandem going into the U.S. election, especially with the rise of (former U.S. President) Trump in betting markets and the 50 basis-point (bps) cut being out of the picture for the Fed, at least in November. This would be the best case for the dollar in the short term', said Boris Kovacevic, global macro strategist at Convera.
On the contrary, the ECB will likely have to speed up monetary policy easing as economic conditions deteriorate and inflation falls short of the target. In fact, tomorrow, the ECB is now widely expected to deliver another 25-bps rate cut, a move that seemed unlikely at its last meeting in September. 'If the ECB does not cut in October, the market will think that the central bank is behind the curve and potentially making a policy error', said Deutsche Bank chief European economist Mark Wall.
EURUSD was falling slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. An important event for EUR is tomorrow's ECB interest rate decision. Therefore, traders may refrain from placing large positions ahead of this event. Christine Lagarde, ECB President, will give a speech today at 6:40 p.m., and her comments might add some volatility to the market. Still, the event is unlikely to move the market significantly before tomorrow's decision and press conference. Fundamentally, the trend in EURUSD will remain bearish as long as the pair is trading below 1.09540.
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