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AUDUSD holds on as the DXY rallies
The Australian dollar (AUD) tested the 0.66500 support level yesterday and lost 0.71% as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields rallied on signs that the U.S. economy stayed resilient and rising odds of a Trump victory in the November election.
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Possible effects for traders
Treasury yields increased overnight as expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the near future have diminished. Traders expect the Fed to deliver only a total of 40 basis points (bps) of cuts over the rest of the year. This implies less than two 25-bps reductions from the central bank at November and December meetings. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-bps rate cut in November is now 88.5%. ‘We think consecutive 25 bp cuts are quite likely in November and December, but we see more uncertainty about the pace next year’, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note. ‘In part because of the election and in part because if the growth data remains strong and the unemployment rate remains stable for a few months, the FOMC could consider slowing the pace at some point’, they added.
Domestically, the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Andrew Hauser, said earlier this week that robust employment growth was a bit of a surprise. He also indicated that the central bank was prepared to respond in either direction, depending on incoming data. Last week, data revealed that Australia's economy added 64,100 new jobs in September, significantly exceeding forecasts of 25,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. Joseph Capurso, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's head of international economics, remarked that recent developments don't constitute a sign of significant future declines in the Australian dollar value. Given the expectation of a less aggressive easing policy by the Fed, markets now only anticipate a 25% likelihood of a rate cut by the RBA this year. According to the RBA WATCH, a first reduction by the RBA next April is currently less fully factored into prices.
AUDUSD has been moving higher during Asian and early European trading sessions. Two significant events could significantly impact this pair this week: the U.S. Jobless Claims report at 12:30 p.m. UTC on Thursday and the following U.S. Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October at 1:45 p.m. UTC. These data releases will provide the market with insights into the Federal Reserve's future policy direction.
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