Glassnode

BTC has recovered above $80K as ETF inflows, spot demand, and positioning improve. However, weaker capital inflows and heavy overhead supply near $86K keep conviction below prior bull phases. Executive Summary – US spot ETF inflows have turned firmly positive as BTC recovered from mid-$60Ks to low-$80Ks Shallow drawdown – Relative Unrealized Loss peaked at 25% in February, now compressed to 8%; bear regime stays shallow if $60K holds – Realized Cap 30D Net Position Change back to $2.8B/month, but well below the $10B+ seen in prior bull expansions – Support at $76.9K (30-day cost basis), resistance at $86.9K (Nov-Feb accumulation range) – Coinbase Spot Volume Delta flipped sharply positive over the last two weeks – Hyperliquid traders steadily adding long exposure alongside rising prices – Implied volatility falling across the curve, led by the front end, as realized vol trends lower – Downside hedging demand fading, options structure more balanced around $80K

US 10Y yields have rebounded toward 4.4%, a level that previously coincided with pressure on $BTC. This time, BTC has recovered above $80K despite the rates backdrop, suggesting the market is absorbing the macro headwind more effectively than earlier in the cycle. 📈https://glassno.de/4nqHY9i

At $82.1k, the unrealized loss in the market equals ~6.9% of the market cap. 📉 glassno.de/4aqd4Ik

#BTC climbed from the high-$77Ks to low-$82Ks as spot demand and futures activity strengthened. Momentum cooled near highs, while options markets continued pricing elevated uncertainty. Read this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/48PCn6D

New addresses appearing on the XRP network have collapsed from 18k/day in Dec 2024 to 2.7k/day today, an 85% decline. Monthly active supply tells a similar story, dropping from 7.45B XRP/day to ~2B XRP/day over the same period. The speculative wave that drove XRP's late-2024 surge has largely unwound at the network level. 📉http://glassno.de/4u8BDBW

The Week On-Chain 18, 2026 Bulls Approach the Ceiling #BTC pushes beyond $80K toward key resistance near $85K, with bulls in control. ETF demand builds and shorts persist, but overhead supply may cap upside without stronger spot follow-through. Executive Summary - Bitcoin has broken above the True Market Mean at $78.2k and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $79.1k, with holding above these levels suggesting a short-lived deep value phase and $85.2k as the next key resistance. - Glassnode’s Moderate Strategy has re-entered allocation after BTC reclaimed ~$76K, capturing recent upside while maintaining a focus on downside protection. - Front-end implied volatility has repriced higher following the breakout, while realized volatility lags, rebuilding a positive volatility risk premium. Read the full Week On-Chain

As price spiked from $78k to $80k, the 2Y-3Y holder cohort, those who accumulated ahead of the ETF launch, ramped up profit-taking to over $209M/hr, realizing 60%-100% in gains. Long-term holders are using this strength to exit into liquidity. 📉 glassno.de/4w9QfT2

#Bitcoin has entered a choppier, reactive phase following a sharp rally into the $80K region, with recent price action marked by a swift rejection from local highs and a pullback back toward the mid-$78K range. Read this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4tRNbcU

🔄 Update: With the spot price trading at $75.7K, the key on-chain price models are as follows: 🟡 Active Investors Mean: $85.0k 🔴 STH Cost Basis: $78.9K 🟢True Market Mean: $78.0K ---- Spot Price: $75.7K ---- 🔵 Realized Price: $54.1K 📊 glassno.de/3XDy2xe

The Week On-Chain 17, 2026 Trapped Below Market Mean #BTC remains capped below the True Market Mean, with support at $65k–$70k. Spot selling is easing and flows stabilise, but demand is weak. Heavy short positioning leaves room for squeezes in a range-bound market. Executive Summary - Price has rejected at the True Market Mean (~$79k) and short-term holder cost basis, confirming resistance and reinforcing a mid-term downside bias. - Spot selling pressure is easing, with volume delta recovering toward neutral and early signs of buyer re-engagement emerging. - Perpetual futures positioning has flipped to a record net short bias, highlighting elevated hedging activity and squeeze potential. Read the full Week On-Chain

Aave V3 lost $4.0B in available liquidity in 29 hours after the Kelp DAO rsETH bridge exploit. WETH utilization hit 100% in 1.4 hours, seven hours before the Protocol Guardian's freeze. The contracts held throughout. The bridge did not. Read the full report 👇 📰http://glassno.de/4ubtLzl

#BTC shows renewed activity with rising transfer volume, but lower fees and subdued liquidity point to reduced speculation. Profitability metrics improve, easing bearish sentiment. Read this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/48rLsCx

Bitcoin has retested February highs just below 80K and is now consolidating slightly below this level. Read the full Options Weekly here

Whales on Hyperliquid have been longing the breakout of the range. Their conviction and long positioning have steadily increased over the past two months, signaling strong bullish sentiment among big perp players. 📊https://glassno.de/495ArH0

First time since Oct 10: Moderate Strategy flips to high confidence. Risk Index at 0, signaling a cleared risk landscape. After 7 years of research and extensive backtesting, we’re introducing Bitcoin Vector: a systematic framework for #BTC exposure, validated across market cycles. ▶ https://glassno.de/3QxhI0I

The Week On-Chain 16, 2026 Mean Reclaimed, Rally on Trial #BTC reclaims $78k as spot demand and ETF inflows return. Shorts build with negative funding, creating squeeze potential. Yet elevated realized profits and soft volatility signal caution, with upside near $80k facing resistance. Executive Summary - Bitcoin has broken above the True Market Mean at $78.1k for the first time since mid-January, a significant mean reversion, with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $80.1k now the immediate resistance ceiling. - ETF flows have turned modestly positive again, with the 7-day moving average shifting back into inflow territory, signaling a tentative return of institutional demand after a prolonged period of outflows. - Spot demand is showing early signs of recovery, with cumulative volume delta flipping higher and indicating renewed buyer aggression, particularly across offshore venues. - Gamma and flow frame the setup: upside faces mechanical resistance near 80K, while a move back toward 75K carries higher downside acceleration risk. Read the full Week On-Chain

The Week On-Chain 16, 2026 Mean Reclaimed, Rally on Trial #BTC reclaims $78k as spot demand and ETF inflows return. Shorts build with negative funding, creating squeeze potential. Yet elevated realized profits and soft volatility signal caution, with upside near $80k facing resistance. Executive Summary - Bitcoin has broken above the True Market Mean at $78.1k for the first time since mid-January, a significant mean reversion, with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $80.1k now the immediate resistance ceiling. - ETF flows have turned modestly positive again, with the 7-day moving average shifting back into inflow territory, signaling a tentative return of institutional demand after a prolonged period of outflows. - Spot demand is showing early signs of recovery, with cumulative volume delta flipping higher and indicating renewed buyer aggression, particularly across offshore venues. Read the full Week On-Chain

Early $IBIT options flows show sharp swings in the put/call ratio, highlighting active positioning shifts as BTC trades near ~$70k. We’ve expanded our options suite to cover $IBIT, bringing institutional-grade derivatives insights to the largest US spot BTC ETF. 📈https://glassno.de/3OSV2HN

The Week On-Chain 15, 2026 Approaching the Ceiling #BTC holds ~$74K, ~5% below key $78K resistance. Spot and ETF demand improve, but profit-taking and cautious options positioning suggest a twitchy, flow-driven recovery lacking strong conviction. Executive Summary - Bitcoin has expanded to ~$74K, now 5.2% below the True Market Mean at $78.1K, which remains the key near-term resistance. Short-Term Holder Supply in Profit sits at 43.2%, leaving room for further upside before typical distribution thresholds are reached. - Profit-taking activity is rising, with the 30D EMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio at 1.16, indicating investors are selling into strength. A sustained move above $78.1K will require the market to absorb this overhead supply. - Institutional positioning is stabilizing, with ETF inflows and CME exposure rebounding. However, participation remains below prior highs, pointing to a cautious and selective re-engagement rather than a full risk-on shift. Read the full Week On-Chain

Following recent positive momentum across crypto markets, ETH has reclaimed the 1-3 month holder cost basis at $2.3k. So far, this structure is consistent with a bear market relief rally, comparable to the bounces observed in Q3-Q4 2022, rather than a structural trend reversal. 📉 glassno.de/3Oo9047