Glassnode

Did whales go long at the top of the local $BTC range? Whale net long positioning on Hyperliquid peaked right into resistance. Spot and flow data still show no matching demand. Read our latest weekly article "Trigger Happy" for analyses like this👇 https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2087586319983882446

The support under $BTC has started to disappear. The heavy wall of buy orders that built below price in June has begun to drain away. What remains is a much thinner floor. In our weekly updates we've been monitoring this metric closely 👇 https://x.com/glassnode/status/2087586319983882446?s=20

$BTC options remain subdued, with volatility and skew continuing to compress. But positioning beneath the surface is becoming more concentrated around key strikes, creating a clearer setup across the options complex. Here’s what the data shows👇 $BTC implied volatility continues to compress, led by the front end. 1-week ATM IV has fallen toward 26%, while 6-month IV remains near 39%, steepening the term structure as traders price in subdued near-term moves but retain longer-dated uncertainty. https://glassno.de/4qf2mvA 25-delta skew has compressed sharply across tenors, with 1-week skew falling toward ~5%. The decline points to softer demand for downside protection, suggesting options markets are becoming less defensively positioned. https://glassno.de/4gdga5q GEX remains concentrated around spot, with negative gamma clustered through the low-$60Ks and positive gamma building closer to ~$70K. This leaves BTC vulnerable to sharper moves lower, while upside may encounter more stabilising dealer hedging. https://glassno.de/4gh93Zz Wrap up: Overall, options markets are less defensive, but not complacent. Falling IV and skew point to reduced near-term fear, while concentrated gamma and strike activity suggest the $60K–$70K range remains the key battleground for the next directional move.

ICYMI: $BTC futures OI has climbed past a full day of futures volume, just shy of last September's record. Plenty of positions, thin turnover. On a tape this thin, liquidations meet little resistance in either direction. https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/2087586319983882446

Sellers are tiring but buyers are absent. However, leverage traders have already pulled the trigger on a recovery the data does not yet support. The market is coiled tightly between converging cost-basis levels on the quietest tape since 2019. http://x.com/i/article/2087578224402591744

Sellers are getting exhausted, but have not reached levels we saw in past $BTC bear markets. According to the Seller Exhaustion Constant (30d), the historical bottoming signature has not confirmed yet. We continue to monitor for selling to stall further.

Over the last 90 days the S&P 500 rose 5% while Bitcoin fell 20%. The last 7 days show the same pattern. Until Bitcoin reclaims strength against the indices, this remains an equity-led tape. Notably, the NASDAQ is lagging behind other major indices indicating an unfavorable environment for tech-heavy portfolios. https://glassno.de/4q7edf4

$BTC has stabilised near $65k, with stronger taker demand, robust institutional inflows and easing downside hedging. However, subdued spot liquidity and weak on-chain activity suggest the recovery remains tentative. Read this week’s Market Pulse👇

$BTC options are showing a cautious but improving setup. Vol is being repriced higher, short-dated fear is fading, calls still dominate OI, and recent premium flow is increasingly constructive. Here’s what the options market is signalling👇 $BTC options have shifted back to a modest vol premium, with IV now ~10% above RV after weeks of realised vol outpacing implied. The market is paying up for uncertainty again, but pricing remains far from stressed. https://glassno.de/4z8hejG $BTC skew has softened sharply at the front end, with 1-week 25Δ skew falling toward ~7%. Longer tenors remain elevated near 10–12%, suggesting near-term fear is fading while structural demand for downside protection persists. https://glassno.de/4fKKV2B BTC options OI remains call-heavy, with calls near ~$15B versus ~$10B in puts after a sharp expiry-driven reset. The persistent gap shows call-side positioning remains structurally larger despite weaker spot. https://glassno.de/3UkdXgX Premium flow is concentrated around $61k–$67k, led by heavy $65k call buying and put selling. The mix points to constructive near-term positioning, while put demand below spot shows downside hedging remains active. https://glassno.de/4hqnRrb Wrap up: $BTC options point to a market growing more constructive without abandoning protection. Near-term fear is easing, calls still dominate positioning, and fresh flow is improving, but longer-dated hedging demand remains elevated.

Now live in Market Compass: the #Bitcoin Cycle Position Composite, with heatmap, and snapshot charts – updated daily. Included in all Advanced and Pro plans. Quoting @n3ocortex: As requested: the cycle position composite as a time-series 👇 https://twitter.com/n3ocortex/status/2084300783021944891

Last week, the market sold off into the FOMC and bottomed on decision day: the S&P printed a 7-week low, with equity fear spiking. Four sessions later, we saw new highs. The decision to hold rates steady appears to have been the risk-on signal the market was waiting for Quoting @glassnode: Global markets broke to records while Bitcoin stood still. This edition traces that stillness: a theft the market slept through, bottom signals arriving through boredom and an options market priced for nothing while sentiment reacts to everything. http://x.com/i/article/2084996338773864448

Following the Coldcard firmware exploit, the number of active Bitcoin addresses surged to 0.98M/day, the highest since December 2024. This is fear-driven on-chain activity. Holders migrating seeds and moving funds to alternative custody reflects an operational security response, not a change in market conviction. 📉 http://glassno.de/btc-active-addresses

Bitcoin's options skew looks bearish – but not because traders are aggressively paying for protection. While downside IV is cheap, the real extreme is upside IV: an all-time low of 23%. Nobody is paying for $BTC upside anymore. Quoting @glassnode: Global markets broke to records while Bitcoin stood still. This edition traces that stillness: a theft the market slept through, bottom signals arriving through boredom and an options market priced for nothing while sentiment reacts to everything. http://x.com/i/article/2084996338773864448

OKX moved its trading infrastructure from Hong Kong to Tokyo this week. Our latency probes caught the switch live: Hong Kong: ~5ms → ~63ms Tokyo: ~52ms → ~4ms A clean swap. If you’re co-located in Hong Kong for @okx, it’s time to move to Tokyo. 👉 http://latency.glassnode.com/cex

Global markets broke to records while Bitcoin stood still. This edition traces that stillness: a theft the market slept through, bottom signals arriving through boredom and an options market priced for nothing while sentiment reacts to everything.

Your AI agent can now buy Glassnode data. x402 pays per call: from your @coinbase balance via Coinbase for Agents (live today), or any USDC wallet via Base MCP. Try: "Pull Glassnode's MVRV and NUPL for BTC and tell me if the market is overheated" https://glassno.de/451fVoR Watch on X

$BTC has slipped to $62.6k as spot demand remains weak and derivatives stay defensive. Stronger on-chain activity, resilient holders and ETF inflows offer support, but conviction remains muted. Read this week’s Market Pulse👇

An extreme day for $BTC: As the Coldcard hack news broke on Friday, eight on-chain metrics printed values well above their two-year median. The data indicates holders are migrating their coins to new wallets rather than sending to exchanges https://glassno.de/4g6zy54