Cryp2day

📊 PCE: Inflation Is Not Cooling Down July's PCE came in slightly worse than expected: — Headline PCE: 3.7% YoY vs. 3.6% expected — Core PCE: 3.3% YoY — in line with expectations — Core PCE MoM: +0.2% — also in line with expectations The key takeaway is that inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, while headline PCE has stayed at 3.7% for the second consecutive month. For BTC, the signal is rather negative: the data gives the Fed no additional reason to move quickly toward monetary easing. At the same time, this wasn't a full-blown inflation surprise — the key Core PCE reading came in exactly as expected. Now the market will have to assess how long the Fed is willing to tolerate inflation at these levels.

📉 Market Overview BTC: $78,895 ETH: $2,459 Fear & Greed Index: 65 (Greed) BTC Dominance: 60.27% 😎 Once again, I'll draw the ascending channel I've grown quite fond of, but I should point out that we still don't have enough tests to be confident that it's a valid pattern. The timeframe isn't particularly high either, so I wouldn't take this setup at face value just yet. ❗️ I can see that many traders are now expecting a decline, and potentially a rather painful one. That scenario certainly seems like the most logical one. Still, I'd recommend staying cautious and watching how Bitcoin reacts at individual levels. In any case, there's still plenty of liquidity waiting below that we haven't tapped yet after such a rapid move higher.

⏳ COUNTDOWN: 24H Tomorrow at 15:30 UTC+3 — July PCE, one of the key inflation indicators for the Fed. What the market expects: — Headline PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index): 3.6% YoY (June: 3.7%) — Core PCE (Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, excluding food and energy): 3.3% YoY (June: 3.3%) — Core PCE MoM (core inflation month-over-month): +0.2% (June: +0.1%) The key point is that the market is hardly expecting any surprises. The consensus for Core PCE is currently around 3.3%, roughly in line with the previous reading. That’s why a strong BTC reaction is most likely if the data deviates from expectations.

↗️ Market Overview BTC: $80,734 ETH: $2,507 Fear & Greed Index: 74 (Greed) BTC Dominance: 60.32% 😮 It looks like short sellers keep shooting themselves in the foot, trying to find a good entry point. Yesterday, they got squeezed out twice at $80K, and today — already at $81K. And it's quite possible they'll get squeezed out once or twice more. That said, I'd bet that we won't make it to $85K, and it's possible that the market will already be in the red by the end of the week. ❗️ Tomorrow we'll get the PCE report — the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. It's a fairly important indicator for the Fed, although it's worth noting that the market isn't expecting any major surprises from the release. I'll talk about it in more detail in the next post.

🎯 Target reached.

👊 Bulls vs Bears After BTC's impulsive move toward $75–80K, the market is once again split into two camps. Let's take a look at what the bulls and bears are saying. 🐂 BULLS - BTC has climbed to three-month highs and is maintaining strong momentum. As long as the price holds above $77K, the structure remains constructive. - Institutional demand is back. Spot BTC ETFs saw around $517M in inflows on August 19, followed by another $606M on August 20. This is no longer just a short squeeze story. - Improving liquidity conditions are also supporting risk assets. The US Treasury's purchases of longer-dated Treasuries have pushed bond yields lower and supported risk appetite. - The regulatory backdrop remains positive as well: progress on the CLARITY Act reduces uncertainty around future crypto regulations in the US. 🐻 BEARS - BTC has gained roughly 20%+ in just a few days, with virtually no meaningful pullbacks. After such a move, signs of overheating are becoming increasingly obvious, while RSI is already at elevated levels. - A significant portion of the move was driven by a short squeeze. This source of demand isn't unlimited: once the shorts are liquidated, the market needs new buyers to keep pushing higher. - $80K remains a key resistance zone. The market has already faced selling pressure around this level, so simply reaching it doesn't mean a successful breakout is guaranteed. - Finally, the macro backdrop is far from perfect: the Fed is keeping rates at 3.50–3.75%, while uncertainty around future monetary policy and geopolitics remains. 📌 In conclusion, the bulls currently have the advantage in terms of momentum and capital flows. The bears, meanwhile, have a strong argument in the form of an overheated market and the need to confirm the rally with genuine demand after the short squeeze runs out of fuel. The main battle is now at $80K. If the level is decisively broken and held, the bullish scenario will receive strong confirmation. If not, the market could easily move back down in search of liquidity.

↗️ Market Overview BTC: $77,412 ETH: $2,459 Fear & Greed Index: 73 (Greed) BTC Dominance: 59.70% 🤑 The new week is starting sideways, which means the market is waiting for an answer to the main question: who are we going to hunt first? I can't give a definite answer yet, but I can assume that most traders will either look to short — given the negative geopolitical backdrop and, at best, neutral Fed rhetoric — or look for a better entry into longs, meaning they will also be waiting for a pullback. That's why I'd rather bet that BTC will hit $80K before $75K. But I'll be honest — I'm not going to jump into a trade right now. I don't have enough technical arguments to justify it, and without them, I don't want to guess. What do you think? Which level will we hit first? 👍 — $80K 🔥 — $75K

💲 Narrative of the Week: Short Squeeze Initially, the market was expecting a relatively quiet week. The main event on the calendar was supposed to be the FOMC Minutes — the record of the Fed’s July meeting, which could have provided additional clues about the future path of interest rates. But a sudden short squeeze completely changed the plans. Instead of the expected range-bound movement, Bitcoin started rallying aggressively, wiping out short sellers one after another. During the move, short liquidations reached roughly $3 billion, turning forced buying into additional fuel for the rally. As a result, BTC climbed from around $64K to $75K with virtually no major pullbacks, while risk appetite and overall market greed increased sharply. At the same time, the fundamental backdrop can hardly be called unequivocally positive. So the key question now is whether the market can maintain its momentum after most of the shorts have already been liquidated.

↗️ Market Overview BTC: $75,449 ETH: $2,360 Fear & Greed Index: 72 (Greed) BTC Dominance: 60.20% 😳 Bitcoin continues to rally with virtually no pullbacks, leaving those waiting for an entry on the sidelines. I think the key question today is whether $75K can hold and sustain the momentum created by the bulls. If it does, I'll be looking to catch BTC on pullbacks. 🤑 During this impulsive rally, short sellers have lost roughly $3 billion. Great fuel for further upside, despite the, to put it mildly, unconvincing fundamentals. The question is: can the rally continue despite the challenging geopolitical backdrop?

🇺🇸 Most Americans disapprove of the Trump family’s crypto investments According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, 63% of Americans believe it is inappropriate for Donald Trump and his family to profit from cryptocurrency while he is serving as president. Opinions vary sharply along party lines: 🔴 92% of Democrats consider such investments inappropriate. 🟢 Among Republicans, 69% consider them appropriate. The issue is particularly relevant as Trump continues to push for the CLARITY Act. Critics point to potential conflicts of interest, given the president and his family’s own crypto ventures.

↗️ Market Overview BTC: $69,373 ETH: $2,244 Fear & Greed Index: 62 (Greed) BTC Dominance: 59.35% 😁 Well, unfortunately, I ended up on the side of the majority when it came to the market's next move, and I got punished for it. Of course, deep down, I had the idea that while everyone was expecting a drop, the market could pull off an impulsive move like this. But that doesn't matter anymore — I bet on a short, and obviously, it didn't work out. ❗️ Now the big question is — what comes next? The road for a continuation of the long seems to be clear, but jumping in at the highs is questionable. And while I don't rule out the possibility that this move is part of a manipulation and that a drop is still ahead, I'm also in no rush to enter a short. I think the only right decision right now is to let the market trade for a while and see where it goes. What are you doing right now? 👍 — Going long 🔥 — Going short 😎 — Waiting

📌 FOMC Minutes: What Should Markets Expect Today? At 21:00 UTC+3, the Fed will release the FOMC Minutes — the detailed record of its July meeting. The document shows what Fed officials discussed, which risks they saw for the economy and inflation, and how much they disagreed on the path of monetary policy. And today’s release is particularly important. At the July meeting, the Fed kept rates at 3.50–3.75%, but the decision passed by a 9–3 vote. Three FOMC members voted for a 25 bps rate hike. So the key question is: How widespread are hawkish views within the FOMC? 🔴 Bearish signal: Officials see inflation as the main risk and remain open to further rate hikes = pressure on BTC and other risk assets. 🟢 Bullish signal: Officials are more concerned about slowing economic growth and the labor market and see the current rate as sufficiently restrictive = positive for risk assets. Meanwhile, market expectations have shifted since the July meeting. Softer economic data has reduced the probability of a September rate hike, with markets now largely expecting rates to remain unchanged.

↗️ Market Overview BTC: $64,253 ETH: $1,911 Fear & Greed Index: 46 (Fear) BTC Dominance: 59.26% 😳 We’re seeing a familiar pattern on the chart — the $65K level is once again being met with strong selling pressure, triggering a short-side reaction. I wouldn’t rule out another push higher, but this can’t keep going forever. If the bulls fail to show strength by breaking through this level, the next drop could be quite painful. By the way, today we’re waiting for the latest Fed minutes. The key question is how broad the support for a rate hike was within the FOMC, and whether sentiment has shifted following the latest inflation and labor market data.

📊 BULL vs BEAR 🟢 Bulls: - BTC is holding above $63K - Weak economic data is reducing expectations for a Fed rate hike - Price remains above the 4H EMA 20 - Further cooling in inflation keeps hopes of monetary easing alive 🔴 Bears: - BTC is still below the key $65–66K zone - The downtrend remains intact - Tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remain high - Rising oil prices driven by geopolitical risks could put inflationary pressure back on the market Who wins this week? 👍 — Bulls 🔥 — Bears

↗️ Market Overview BTC: $63,454 ETH: $1,895 Fear & Greed Index: 31 (Fear) BTC Dominance: 58.94% 😁 The new week, as is often the case, is starting with a move higher — traders are opening positions and entering the market, pushing the price up. Of course, I don’t see this move as justified from either a technical or geopolitical standpoint, so I’m willing to assume that we’ll soon start moving lower from around these levels. The short-term liquidation heatmap seems to be pointing in the same direction. The Iran deal hasn’t moved any closer to being finalized. A Fed rate cut still looks unlikely. And Trump still has a couple of months to get things in order ahead of the elections. So, it looks like the interesting part is still ahead of us.

🇺🇸 Narrative of the Week: Inflation This week, U.S. inflation data became the main macro driver for the markets. First came CPI, followed by PPI — and both showed further signs of cooling price pressures. July CPI came in line with expectations, while PPI was even softer than forecast: producer prices were unchanged month-over-month versus an expected 0.2% increase. For the market, this is generally a positive signal: easing inflation reduces concerns about further Fed tightening. However, inflation is still well above the 2% target, so the question of rate cuts remains open. The big question now is whether cooling inflation can become a real catalyst for the markets — or simply give the Fed more reasons to keep rates where they are.

🇺🇸 Narrative of the Week: Inflation This week, U.S. inflation data became the main macro driver for the markets. First came CPI, followed by PPI — and both showed further signs of cooling price pressures. July CPI came in line with expectations, while PPI was even softer than forecast: producer prices were unchanged month-over-month versus an expected 0.2% increase. For the market, this is generally a positive signal: easing inflation reduces concerns about further Fed tightening. However, inflation is still well above the 2% target, so the question of rate cuts remains open. The big question now is whether cooling inflation can become a real catalyst for the markets — or simply give the Fed more reasons to keep rates where they are.

📉 Market Overview BTC: $62,860 ETH: $1,875 Fear & Greed Index: 29 (Fear) BTC Dominance: 58.83% 😎 As expected, we continue moving toward our next target, which I outlined last week — $62,284. As I said, the market is getting there through upward spikes, shaking out early stops, and luring in early longs. But despite all these manipulations, the market continues to fall. And I expect this downtrend to continue over the next few months. In my view, the situation may only start to change closer to the Congressional elections — perhaps the Republicans will once again need support from the markets and the economy to boost their approval ratings. ❗️ As for yesterday’s inflation data — the news was moderately positive, but we can see that the market is still selling off. Why? I already explained this on Wednesday: falling inflation could actually strengthen the Fed’s case for keeping rates at their current level. Why fix something that’s working?

🐻 Glassnode: Speculators are keeping BTC below $68.7K According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s short-term holders are currently underwater on average and are actively selling when the price attempts to recover. Their average entry price is around $68.7K, making this a key resistance level as many holders may look to exit at breakeven. At the same time, almost 9% of BTC’s total supply was acquired between $62K and $65K, further explaining why price remains stuck in this range. It looks like the market will have to deal with this massive cluster of positions before we see a decisive move.

🇺🇸 PPI is out! Alright guys, the latest producer inflation data is in. Now the big question is what it means for the Fed and BTC. 👉 Head over to Token Report’s X, check out the post, and show it some love with a like. I’d really appreciate the support!