World War Now

🇳🇪🇷🇺⚡️- Viktor Voropaev, Russian Ambassador to Niger, said the Africa Corps supported the current regime in Niamey following attempts from the insurgents to seize the Bravia Hotel, where Russian diplomats are currently staying.

🇩🇪 🇷🇺 🇪🇺 Germany plans to blame Russia for Leipzig attack as tensions with Putin escalate Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to level new sanctions at Russian entities, in parallel with punishing new EU measures. The German government's plan is set to involve direct measures against Russian entities, while the EU moves forward with punishing new sanctions that are being prepared in parallel in Brussels, three officials familiar with the matter, who were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue, told POLITICO and WELT AM SONNTAG. The announcement is scheduled for early next week, coinciding with an EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Ireland on Tuesday — but could also be made earlier depending on Merz, said two of the officials. One of the officials familiar with the matter said that in response to the Leipzig drone incident, it was no longer enough to expel individual Russian diplomats or close the Russian House in Berlin. Tougher measures were needed, such as intensified sanctions or even more extensive arms deliveries to Ukraine. The three officials declined to provide further details on which precise measures Merz plans to announce. The foiled attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport has already been strongly linked to Russia by media investigations. According to a report by German media outlets, the drone, which had been rigged with explosives, was intended to strike a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane, which is also used to transport military equipment. The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. intelligence assessments directly linked Russia to the drone. https://www.politico.eu/article/friedrich-merz-berlin-sanctions-russia-vladimir-putin-leipzig-attach-ascalate/

📝 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 AMK Mapping on X: While everyone still focuses on the current limited Ukrainian drone strikes, today marks Day 50 of Russia’s large-scale missile and drone strike campaign against Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast. Hundreds of missiles and thousands of drones have been used in these unprecedented attacks, hitting all 6 working Ukrainian ports, dozens of commercial vessels, energy infrastructure powering these ports, countless warehouses and other storage facilities, Ukrainian naval assets, and much more. Every single day for the last 50 days has witnessed attacks on port infrastructure to some extent. This has crippled Ukrainian maritime export capabilities, with most shipping companies no longer willing to take the risk to sail to Odesa Oblast. Meanwhile, Russia’s western ports are largely functional again, as Ukraine’s “40 day operation” has long petered out. It’s truly incredible how little coverage this Russian strike campaign has gotten, considering the massive scale of these attacks. And they show no signs of stopping yet. 📎 AMK Mapping

🌾 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Wheat prices are surging. US wheat futures jumped +6.4% on Wednesday and +1.3% on Thursday, to $7.58 per bushel, the highest level since July 2023. Wheat prices have risen +19% so far this month, and are up +50% since the start of 2026. This comes amid growing concerns about further disruptions to grain-export ports and terminals along Ukraine's and Russia's Black Sea coast. Russia and Ukraine together account for more than 25% of global wheat exports, while also supplying significant amounts of global barley, corn, and sunflower oil exports. Meanwhile, Ukraine's agricultural exports in the 2026-27 season are now expected to be 29.6 million tons, or -54% lower than the previous estimate of 64.4 million tons, according to its agriculture ministry. Another wave of food inflation may be on its way. 📎 KobeissiLetter

🇮🇱 ❌️ 🇺🇸 An NBC News team was attacked and beaten by Israeli settlers wielding clubs in the West Bank. Four members of an NBC team were interviewing Aida Ahmed Abdullah and her family in the Palestinian town of Jalud, near Nablus. Abdullah said they had been driven out of their home by Israeli settlers, and the team was walking down the hill toward the house. 📎 NBC

🛢 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 The oil deal with Venezuela does not take US proved reserves from 46 billion barrels to 111 billion. Majority control of 17 fields does not give America 7.1% of the world's oil, does not put it level with the UAE, does not add supply in 2026, and does not replace a barrel lost at Hormuz. EIA proved reserves are volumes recoverable with reasonable certainty from known reservoirs inside the United States. At year-end 2024 that was about 46 billion barrels of crude oil and lease condensate. A lease, a 55% offtake right, or "majority control" of Venezuelan acreage does not move oil across a border on the ledger. Venezuela books it, and already does. Those barrels sit inside its 303 billion. Which makes the 7.1% figure double counting. Venezuela's reserves are already inside the 1.57 trillion world total. Putting 65 billion in the US column counts the same oil twice. Caracas also did not say proved reserves. It said 17 fields with a "proven potential" of 65 billion barrels, which is not a classification that exists under SEC or SPE-PRMS rules. The number has moved accordingly: Axios put a similar field list at over 90 billion, a US official said 63. There is no published agreement, no named operator and no audited reserve report behind any of them. The 17 fields have not been named either. Reuters, which reviewed the list under negotiation, described a mix of undeveloped Orinoco acreage and mature Lake Maracaibo blocks. Orinoco crude is 8–10° API, high sulfur, high metals. It needs diluent, steam and upgraders, plus pipelines and terminals that need billions in repairs first. Venezuela produces roughly 1.1–1.2 million b/d today. The 100-year term does not exist in Venezuelan law. The reformed hydrocarbons law caps mixed companies at 25 years plus a single 15-year extension. These are not the barrels Hormuz carries. The strait moves Murban, Arab Light, Basrah and Kuwait Export, light to medium grades that refineries across Asia and Europe are built to run. Extra-heavy Venezuelan sour is coking feedstock. It competes with Maya and Canadian heavy on the US Gulf Coast. It does not replace a lost Gulf barrel in Ningbo or Rotterdam. Access to future barrels, if the contract holds and the fields get built, is a long-cycle supply story. It is a contract, not a reserve. Only one of those appears on the EIA ledger. 📎 KobeissiLetter

📝 🛢 🇻🇪 Reserves ≠ Production Venezuela already sat on 303 billion barrels, the largest proven reserves on earth, and pumped 1.12 million b/d in July, about 1% of world supply and one third of its 1997 peak. The 65 billion barrels are 21% of reserves Venezuela had already booked. Booking is not producing. Orinoco crude is extra heavy, under 10 API, and needs upgraders or imported diluent before it can even move; the existing upgraders have run far below nameplate for years. Guyana, the fastest large development in modern history, took four years from discovery to first oil and about ten to reach 0.9 million b/d, in light offshore crude with one operator and a stable contract. Chevron, the biggest operator actually on the ground in Venezuela, is at 280,000 b/d and targets up to 50% more by end-2028. Roughly 140,000 b/d in two years. 📎 Cristiano Augusto Tofani

📝 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 Venezuela pumps about 1 million b/d. Even if these 17 fields alone reached 2 million b/d, twice the whole country’s output today and 58% of its 1997 peak, the US share of 1.1 million b/d would take 89 years to lift 35.8 billion barrels. $1.25 trillion over 89 years is $14 billion a year. Discounted at 10%, generous for a sovereign in default since 2017 that nationalized Exxon’s and Conoco’s Orinoco projects in 2007, that stream is worth about $140 billion today. Under 3% of the headline, before the $100 billion of capex that gets spent first. Double the production assumption and you reach 5%. Big face value, 89-year duration, a counterparty with a default history, an interim government’s signature. Great strategic deal for the SPR. As an asset, it is a distressed claim with a century-long workout, not a $5 trillion windfall. 📝 Carolina Lion: "They still can only export about 1.25 million barrels per day. You need to expand and modernize the infrastructure to do more than that." 📎 Cristiano Augusto Tofani

🛢 🇺🇸 🇻🇪 The numbers behind the US-Venezuela oil deal: Venezuela has now confirmed that the agreement covers 65 billion barrels of oil across 17 fields, with the US receiving "majority control." At current WTI crude oil prices of ~$83/barrel, those reserves have a gross market value of ~$5.4 trillion. Reports indicate the deal includes 100-year rights to develop the fields, while the US will receive 55% effective output, along with an ownership stake and rights to purchase oil at cost. At 55%, that would correspond to ~35.8 billion barrels of effective output. At today’s oil prices, that amount of crude alone has a gross market value of ~$3 trillion. That said, Venezuela primarily produces heavy, sour crude, which typically trades at a meaningful discount to benchmark oil prices and requires more expensive production, blending, and refining. Even assuming an illustrative $25-$35 of net economic value per barrel after discounts and development/operating costs, ~35.8 billion barrels could represent up to ~$1.25 trillion of cumulative economic value over the life of the fields. This includes a $100 billion investment to develop these fields, while Venezuela estimates the projects will generate $209 billion in tax revenue for the country. This is one of the biggest energy deals in history. 📎 KobeissiLetter

The Chavista regime's party shows its full support for the signing of the oil agreement between Trump and Delcy The United Socialist Party of Venezuela, faithful to its historical commitment to national sovereignty and the well-being of the people, expresses its full backing for Comrade Delcy Rodríguez, the acting president of the Republic, regarding the agreements signed with the United States government in the energy sector #Archive

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Missile War Monitor: petrol queues in Russia, purchase limits in Ukraine's supermarkets Petrol was on sale at fewer than a third of Russian filling stations this month, and the Ukrainian supermarket chain ATB began capping purchases on August 28 due to Russian drone attacks. Ukraine has launched a total of 21 strikes against Russia’s oil refineries in August. Russia has retaliated by trying to systematically destroy Ukraine’s retail infrastructure, which has started to empty the shelves. The largest store operators announced on August 28 they are freezing pay and cancelling bonuses. The 48 hours to Saturday morning Ukraine hit a Magnit hypermarket outside Moscow, a first for the chain, along with three retail and e-commerce warehouses in Rostov region. Russia cut power to more than 300,000 people in Nikolaev, burned 125 tonnes of grain on lorries outside Izmail, and destroyed a Fozzy hypermarket at Vishnnyovoe. As this series has tracked since the campaign against the civilian economy began, the conflict has moved from a war of attrition to a total war after Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Ukraine it had opened a “Pandora’s box” by targeting Russian retail assets. On August 28 drones hit the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl, about 700 km from Ukrainian territory, where the general staff confirmed a fire and said the extent of damage was still being assessed. It was the eighth strike on that plant this year. Perm lost about 74% of its capacity to a strike on August 21, its second this year; NORSI at Nizhny Novgorod went down on August 26; and with Volgograd already offline every major Lukoil refinery in Russia stopped processing. In Ukraine, From August 28 ATB began limiting customers to six units or six kilogrammes of a given product per receipt, nationwide and online, on eggs, canned fish and meat, oils, vinegar, starch, grains, pasta, cereals, salt, baking soda, sugar and dry groceries. This is not rationing and should not be reported as such. ATB's own explanation is that individual customers were buying in bulk to resell, stripping shelves locally, on top of the damage to its warehouses. Its representative said flatly that "there is no shortage of products in the stores". Silpo has introduced no comparable limits and has told customers not to panic. Supermarket chain the Fozzy Group, which runs Silpo, Fora, Fozzy and Thrash!, said on August 28 that ten of its distribution centres had been damaged in August alone, that a Silpo supermarket in Krivoy Rog had been destroyed, and that it was freezing hiring, cancelling the autumn salary review and Q3 and Q4 bonuses, and suspending voluntary medical insurance from October 1. Fozzy's own hypermarket and production facilities at Vishnyovoe, on the western edge of Kyiv, were hit on August 28. The store halted operations with the scale of damage still being assessed and nobody was hurt. It was part of a wider night: Kiev regional head Tymur Tkachenko counted 14 warehouse premises damaged across five districts, along with 16 private houses, three apartment blocks and 16 vehicles. One warehouse held the stock of the bookshop Readeat and the publisher Vivat, which suspended shipments. 🔗 https://www.intellinews.com/missile-war-monitor-petrol-queues-in-russia-purchase-limits-in-ukraine-s-supermarkets-464347/

🇺🇸❌🌞- The Trump administration intends to terminate U.S. military assistance to the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga upon the expiration of the current agreement on September 30. If this assistance is terminated, the Iraqi Peshmerga will lose over 60 million dollars in funding, as well as ground training, and operational support. @GeoPWatch

🇬🇷🤝🇮🇱- Greece and Israel are set to execute a €3.1 billion agreement for the “Achilles’ Shield” program, which will integrate Spyder, Barak MX, and David’s Sling systems with Greece’s existing defense infrastructure. This AI-enabled network is designed to counter drones, aircraft, and ballistic missiles, with a projected delivery timeline of 35 months and a requirement for 25% Greek industrial participation. @GeoPWatch

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 At least 37 people died after the ammunition depot explosion yesterday in Milaya, Kiev region. At least 7 buildings burned, while multiple other locations were attacked in Kiev, including a warehouse (50.438615, 30.303787) and two places in the Podol district (50.478429, 30.503325 and 50.481621, 30.484807) Also, we have now clear views of destroyed warehouses in Borispol (Boryspil) (image 4). Ukraine has run out of PAC-2 interceptors over a month ago and the inactivity of its Patriot systems is showing. @CIG_telegram

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱 Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi:

Our intelligence shows major efforts to game energy markets. U.S. Govt elements use gullible media to influence prices for personal gain and keep POTUS mired in a losing war. Israel-aligned actors also promote war with rosy assessments. U.S. consumers feel the real bottom line.

Axios and more recently, Bloomberg, have reported on a "increase" of oil being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, with Axios claiming as many as 16 million barrels/day while Bloomberg claimed 8 million barrels/day crossing the strait. However, satellite imagery doesn't confirm any of the claims. To be able to meet Bloomberg's 8 million barrel/day figure, 4 VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carrier) with a capacity of 2 million barrels each, crossing the Strait of Hormuz every day. Problem is only a small number of the ships crossing the Hormuz are VLCCs with the majority being smaller crude carriers (coastal tankers, Afra and Suez-maxers) which can't carry more than 1 million barrels and they usually transport other petrochemical and petroleum products like naphta, ethylene, butene, heating oil, bitumen, asphalt, petroleum coke etc. TankerTrackers which uses satellite imagery to count the ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz concluded that no more than 4 million barrels/day of crude oil passes through the Hormuz and a significant part of that is Iranian oil which is being blended with Iraqi oil in ship-to-ship transfers from sanctioned to unsanctioned tankers to evade the U.S. blockade. @CIG_telegram

🇳🇪🇷🇺⚡- Niger's junta has regained control over Air Base 101 in Niamey International Airport with the assistance of Russia's African Corps drone attacks.

🇳🇪🇷🇺⚡- Russia's embassy in Niamey has publicly confirmed Niger's junta has requested assistance from the African Corps against the mutineers. No confirmed Russian military assistance has yet been carried out.

🇾🇪🇸🇦⚡- Saudi artillery shelling of Ansarullah positions in Qatabir, Sa'ada region of Ansarullah-controlled northern Yemen.

🇳🇪⚡️- Despite Salifou Mody's statement, the situation in Niamey is not resolved according to local reports.

🇳🇪⚡️- "A group of soldiers in breach of the military regulation has undertaken to seize some of their comrades in the barracks of base 101 in Niamey and to shoot at some sensitive sites in the city of Niamey. The prompt reaction of the forces of defense and security allowed us to circumscribe this movement of humor and gradually take over the control of these sites." - General Salifou Mody.