The 3rd Wave

Nifty Weekly

Nifty took support on exactly 61.8 fib retracement as posted with a chart in the morning. Nifty rebounded and trimmed the morning losses. While the bank nifty close positively.

NIfty at 61.8 Fib support. Earlier gap filled. Now interesting to see if nifty honors the Fib level.

Thakur toh gayo.. mai bolyo hoto.

🎭 Trump + Friday Tomorrow combination

ROUTE MOBIE CMP 623. First reversal sign as per Dow Theory seen on the charts. Fundamentals are also improving but sales still in single digit. Keep on radar.

As you can see, this is the sixth consecutive week that the Nifty has gone nowhere. The market has remained range-bound with no meaningful directional move. In such a scenario, what should we focus on, and how should we analyse the chart ?

Nifty View View: Neutral with Positive Bias CMP: ~23,996 Accumulation Zone: 23,850–24,000 Weekly Stop Loss: 23,400 Resistance Levels: 24,277 24,350 24,770 Targets: Short Term: 24,770 Medium Term: 25,800 Long Term: 26,350+ Strategy : The weekly chart continues to suggest "wait for expansion after contraction." The current setup favors patient investors. Continue accumulating quality stocks on declines, but avoid aggressive leverage until Nifty delivers a decisive weekly close above 24,350–24,770. That breakout would likely signal the beginning of the next leg of the bull market.

The market is in the accumulation zone. Also broader markets witnessing the weakness as expected and posted.

No movement no opportunity Shanti

One simple observation from NIFTY historical data: • First 5-minute candle matched the day's direction 61.7% of the time. • First 15-minute candle improved it to 63.8%. • When both pointed the same way, accuracy jumped to 65.7%. The longer the open commits, the more likely the day follows through.

Let's have a look at Buffett Indicator for US and India *Buffett Indicator* (Market Cap to GDP) – Current Status Country Current Buffett Indicator Valuation Status 🇺🇸 United States ~234% (July 2026) 🔴 Extremely Overvalued 🇮🇳 India ~127% (latest available 2026) 🟠 Moderately Overvalued 🇺🇸 United States Current Reading: ~234% Historical Context: Dot-com bubble (2000): ~143% COVID/2021 peak: ~197–200% The current level (~234%) is a new all-time high. Implication: Long-term expected returns may be lower, and valuation risk is elevated. It is not a market-timing tool but a warning that the market is priced aggressively. 🇮🇳 India Current Reading: ~127% Historical Context: Long-term fair value: ~75–100% Above 120%: generally considered expensive. Implication: The Indian market is trading above historical fair value, with richer valuations especially in mid- and small-cap stocks. 🔴 US: 234% → Extremely Overvalued 🟠 India: 127% → Moderately Overvalued. A high Buffett Indicator does not predict an immediate crash. It suggests that future long-term returns are likely to be lower than average and that disciplined investing, diversification, and selective stock picking become more important. MAK Capital

An interesting fact🌟 Reliance FY26 PAT was equal to the PAT of entire Nifty Smallcap 100 stocks. 1 Lakh Crore.

MAK Capital Technical Summary View: Neutral to Bullish CMP: ~24,334 Accumulation Zone: 23,900–24,100 Major Support / Stop Loss: 23,400 (weekly closing basis) Resistance: 24,350 → 24,800 Upside Targets: Short Term: 24,800 Medium Term: 25,800 Long Term: 26,300+ Strategy: Continue to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks on declines rather than chasing rallies. The weekly structure remains constructive, and a breakout above 24,800 would significantly strengthen the probability of a fresh uptrend.

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24301 view invalidation

Nifty weak below 24221

All on the ma line.. closing below is...

MAK HAWK EYE CHART .. Nifty strong and broader markets not only weaken but are on the verge of breaking down. Smallcap 250 is the weakest chart.