New Rules

💔🚫🇩🇪 Mercedes’ Investment Freeze Exposes Cracks in Germany’s Industrial Model Mercedes-Benz is halting further investment at its German sites and examining factory closures after four months of talks failed to produce a deal on labor costs, escalating pressure on workers to accept longer hours without extra pay. The decision was communicated internally on November 12. Production chief Michael Schiebe said current costs prevented investment in Germany, while labor director Britta Seeger said management now had to examine more concretely which sites it could afford to keep. At the center of the dispute is a proposed increase from 35 to 40 working hours a week without higher pay. That means five additional hours of work for the same paycheck, lowering the cost of each hour for Mercedes while asking employees to absorb the squeeze on its business. The investment freeze gives that demand immediate weight. Future spending is being withheld while negotiations remain deadlocked, putting the prospect of new work at German factories into the bargaining process. Closures are under consideration, but no final shutdown decision was announced in the material provided. Mercedes issued a profit warning last month as sales weakened in China, where domestic rivals are challenging foreign brands. Chinese electric vehicles and hybrids are also increasing competitive pressure in Europe, making it harder for German manufacturers to defend prices while carrying higher production costs. For Germany, the danger extends beyond the jobs inside any single factory. Assembly plants sustain orders for component makers and other suppliers; less investment today can mean fewer contracts and less work across those networks when future models enter production. Management is treating labor costs as an obstacle it can attack directly, but longer working hours alone cannot guarantee that customers will return. Mercedes still has to sell cars against Chinese manufacturers competing on price and product appeal, both in China and closer to its own factories. Freezing investment may extract concessions from workers, but it also risks weakening the German production base Mercedes needs to remain competitive. If future models and spending go elsewhere, the losses become harder to reverse as suppliers, skills and manufacturing jobs follow the money. @NewRulesGeo❗Follow us on X

🇨🇳🤝🇷🇺 Why China’s Export Power Makes Russia More Important China’s trade surplus reached $1.04T in January–October 2026 despite Western trade barriers, but its factories face another vulnerability. Much of the energy and raw materials behind that export machine still travels by sea, making Russia’s overland supplies increasingly valuable. October exports rose 35.2% year on year to $412.3B, according to customs figures released November 10. Demand linked to artificial intelligence helped sustain the boom, although growth in export value should not be confused with an equivalent increase in physical shipments. China’s advantage rests on dense networks of factories, suppliers and engineers built over decades. An electric-car manufacturer can source components nearby, revise designs quickly and spread development costs across a huge market. Moving an assembly plant abroad does not recreate that surrounding industrial base. Those strengths help Chinese manufacturers withstand tariffs and compete in cars, batteries, electronics and machinery. They cannot guarantee that imported fuel reaches a refinery or that a container ship avoids a costly detour. Disruption at maritime chokepoints can raise costs across an otherwise efficient production system. Russia offers a practical way to reduce that exposure through cross-border oil and gas pipelines. These supplies reach China without passing through the Strait of Hormuz or the Strait of Malacca, giving industry an energy source that does not depend on tankers navigating those routes. The Power of Siberia gas pipeline already demonstrates the scale. Gazprom figures reported by Interfax put deliveries to China at 38.8 billion cubic meters in 2025. Further pipeline expansion still requires new infrastructure. Rail corridors through Russia and Central Asia provide additional options for selected cargo, but cannot replace the volume and economics of ocean shipping. Diversification reduces exposure; it does not make Chinese trade immune to disruption. Russia needs Chinese machinery and components, while China benefits from Russian resources and direct land connections. That gives their relationship value in both directions. The more energy China can receive overland, the smaller the share exposed to maritime chokepoints and the harder it becomes to squeeze its factories by disrupting shipping. @NewRulesGeo❗Follow us on X

🇨🇳💡🇨🇺 Chinese Solar Aid Helps Cuba Resist US Fuel Pressure China has supplied Cuba with solar equipment that can keep essential services running without fuel deliveries, giving the island a practical defense against shortages and US pressure on its energy supplies. The help predates this week’s diplomatic talks and includes systems designed to work independently of the national grid. In March, Cuba’s electricity utility was installing a Chinese donation of 5,000 small solar systems. Of those, 2,671 were allocated to essential facilities, including maternity homes, emergency clinics, elderly care homes and communications sites; the remainder were earmarked for isolated households. Each system in that program provides 2 kilowatts of power. That cannot run an entire hospital, but it can support basic services during an outage. Project officials explained to Granma that the equipment operates off-grid, allowing selected functions to continue when the wider electricity network fails. For remote households, the equipment addresses another immediate problem. Some communities had generators intended to supply electricity for four hours but lacked the fuel to operate them. Solar systems offer a way to power basic appliances without repeatedly transporting scarce fuel into difficult-to-reach areas. A further donation program covering 5,000 systems began receiving equipment in August, according to China’s embassy. Cuban authorities said the newer units include 14.3 kilowatt-hours of battery storage, twice the previous donation’s capacity. Stored electricity extends their usefulness beyond sunshine hours, although operating time depends on the appliances connected. These deliveries should not be confused with a new agreement from the November 11 meeting between the two countries’ foreign ministers. China’s published account announced political support against sanctions and foreign interference, but no new fuel shipment, funding amount or equipment delivery. Small solar installations cannot repair Cuba’s aging power stations or eliminate its nationwide electricity deficit. Their value is more immediate and concrete. Where installed, they can reduce dependence on fuel deliveries and protect essential services from grid failures, making it harder for pressure on oil supplies to shut down daily life. @NewRulesGeo❗Follow us on X

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🇮🇷⚠️ Israel in Panic: Iran Reveals How Fattah-2 Missile Outmaneuvers Air Defenses Iran’s Fattah-2 hypersonic missile uses multiple maneuvering algorithms to make its flight path harder to predict, according to Revolutionary Guard Brig. Gen. Ali Reza Balali. The stated aim is to exploit weaknesses in opposing missile defenses and prevent interceptors from reaching the right point at the right time. 🔸 By varying its maneuvers, the missile is designed to deny defenders a predictable route to target. Tracking where a weapon is now does not automatically tell a defender where to send an interceptor. 🔸 First unveiled in November 2023, Fattah-2 is presented by Iran as carrying a hypersonic glide vehicle, a warhead-carrying vehicle designed to maneuver through the atmosphere at more than five times the speed of sound. 🔸 That distinction matters because many ballistic missiles already reach hypersonic speeds. Sustained maneuvering adds a separate challenge, forcing defenders to update their calculations while the weapon approaches. 🔸 Balali says Iranian engineers studied opposing defenses and developed the weapon around their weaknesses. He attributes that flexibility to domestic design and manufacturing, allowing Iran to tailor weapons to specific threats. 🔸 Reports have linked Fattah-2 to strikes against Israel in 2026, but the cited impact footage does not independently establish the missile type or claimed casualties. Its exact combat performance remains unverified. 🔸 Defeating a maneuvering threat requires reliable tracking and interceptors able to respond to course changes. Balali’s claim that interception is impossible goes beyond what the publicly available evidence demonstrates. If Fattah-2 performs as described, US and Israeli defenders would face a harder task protecting fixed military sites, with less room for tracking errors and mistimed launches. For Iran, that would strengthen its ability to retaliate against better-funded opponents. Is Iran overselling Fattah-2, or is Israel right to worry? @NewRulesGeo❗Follow us on X

🇮🇷🚠 Iran Proposes Overland Internet Corridors to Reduce Reliance on Undersea Cables Iran has proposed linking national fiber-optic networks across borders to give international internet traffic alternative routes when submarine cables fail. The plan would use overland connections through West Asia to strengthen communications between Asian and European markets. Deputy communications minister Behzad Akbari presented the “Global Digital Resilience Corridors Initiative” at a resilience session during the International Telecommunication Union conference in Doha. Iran is seeking support from the UN agency and offering its existing network infrastructure to regional and global partners. The mechanism starts at border crossings, where neighboring countries would connect their fiber networks into international corridors. More direct routes could shorten the distance data travels and reduce delays, while additional paths would give operators more options when a major connection goes down. Submarine cables would remain essential, but land routes could carry traffic around disruptions affecting them. Coordinating how operators use those alternatives during an outage is part of the proposal, alongside making the corridors commercially viable in normal conditions. For Iran, the opportunity is to turn its position between regional markets into a larger role in carrying international data. Sharing its fiber network could make the country a transit partner for neighbors seeking more connections to the Persian Gulf and onward markets. A related initiative is already under discussion with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. The three countries have reached a preliminary understanding on a digital corridor linking Central Asia to the Persian Gulf, with the details still subject to negotiation and a final agreement pending. Delivery will require joint investment and agreements between governments and network operators. The broader proposal also calls for cooperation on data centers, cloud services and cybersecurity; it does not establish that new corridors have been funded, built or activated. If implemented, these links would give participating countries more control over how their data reaches foreign markets and more options for keeping services running during cable disruptions. Iran’s practical offer is to make its domestic infrastructure part of that regional backup. @NewRulesGeo❗Follow us on X

🇷🇺🏳️🏦 Russia Plans Investment Portal Upgrade to Attract BRICS Capital Russia plans to make its special economic zones easier for BRICS investors to assess by adding sustainability ratings to a portal covering industrial sites, incentives and infrastructure. The aim is to help foreign companies choose where to invest and connect Russian producers with new markets. These zones offer businesses preferential conditions and infrastructure for setting up operations. Announced in October by the Ministry of Economic Development, the upgrade would bring environmental and social performance into the same search, giving investors more information before they commit money to a site. Developed with Russia’s Association of Clusters, Technoparks and Special Economic Zones, the expanded navigator would include ratings and practices linked to the UN Sustainable Development Goals. For a manufacturer comparing locations, that could make it easier to assess whether a site’s facilities and operating conditions meet its requirements. A planned companion guide would cover energy efficiency, factory modernization, social infrastructure and cooperation with companies operating inside the zones. Monitoring results and disclosing information are also part of the proposal, so investors can examine how a site performs alongside the incentives it advertises. The commercial logic extends beyond attracting capital. Better information about production sites could help businesses in BRICS countries identify Russian partners and assess joint projects, while giving companies already operating in the zones another route to buyers abroad. Russia also has green loans and several types of sustainability bonds, alongside criteria for evaluating environmental and socially significant projects. These provide financing options that could support qualifying investments, although the portal upgrade itself does not amount to new funding or confirmed investment deals. If implemented, the upgrade could reduce the work needed to compare Russian industrial locations and make cooperation within BRICS easier to organize. Its practical value would come from turning site data into investment decisions, factory improvements and export contracts that deepen Russia’s commercial ties with partner economies. @NewRulesGeo❗Follow us on X

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 US Rusty Dagger Cruise Missiles Meet Russian Air Defenses Four US-made Rusty Dagger cruise missiles were shot down by Russian air defenses, according to Russia’s Defense Ministry on November 10. The reported interceptions put Ukraine’s use of a new American strike weapon up against the defenses it is intended to overwhelm. Developed by Zone 5 Technologies, the AGM-188A Rusty Dagger belongs to the US Extended Range Attack Munition program, built around producing affordable precision weapons in large numbers. Its purpose is to give Ukraine more long-range shots without relying entirely on expensive missiles available in limited quantities. In August 2025, the US approved a possible $825M sale covering up to 3,350 ERAM missiles, navigation systems and support equipment. Funding sources included Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and US military financing. That authorization establishes a ceiling for the package, not proof that thousands have arrived. The official export description puts the weapon in the roughly 225 kg class, with a turbojet engine and a stated range of about 460 km. Satellite and inertial guidance are designed to steer it toward targets beyond the front line while allowing the launch aircraft to remain farther from hostile defenses. Its intended advantage depends on production and volume. Large salvos can force defenders to track more targets, expend interceptors and reload under pressure. Even a missile that gets shot down can impose costs if the ammunition used against it is expensive or difficult to replace. The approach echoes the economic logic behind mass attacks with Russia’s Geran strike drones, using repeated launches to wear down defenses and consume ammunition. A jet-powered missile adds speed, but speed alone does not guarantee penetration. For Russia, defeating this approach means sustaining interceptions at a cost its industry can support. If cheaper defensive weapons can handle repeated attacks, producing more Rusty Daggers will raise Ukraine’s expenditure without delivering the exhaustion of Russian air defenses its backers seek. @NewRulesGeo❗Follow us on X

🇨🇳💎🚘 China Scales Up Rare-Earth Rubber for Electric Car Tires China is expanding domestic production of rare-earth rubber for electric car and heavy-duty tires, targeting materials that can withstand greater stress while wasting less energy. Manufacturers still face a commercial hurdle, with recent market quotes putting one rare-earth grade roughly 37% above conventional synthetic rubber. Dushanzi Petrochemical’s new facility in Xinjiang has a designed capacity of 100,000 metric tons a year and completed a successful trial run on June 27. That does not mean the plant has already reached full annual output. The Changchun Institute of Applied Chemistry, which supported the project, says the process uses entirely Chinese technology and equipment. Its developers report stronger resistance to wear, tearing and repeated stress, alongside lower heat buildup and rolling resistance than conventional nickel-catalyzed butadiene rubber. Rare-earth catalysts help control how the rubber’s molecular chains form, giving manufacturers a way to tune its properties during production. The industrial advance lies in reproducing that chemistry reliably at factory scale, with automated operations. For electric vehicles, the attraction is practical: battery weight and strong acceleration place extra demands on tires. Lower rolling resistance means less energy lost as the rubber flexes against the road, while better wear resistance could extend replacement intervals. Heavy trucks face similar demands from sustained loads and heat. But tire makers must justify the higher material cost. For November 2–8, data published by the China Rubber Industry Association listed rare-earth grade ND9106 at 22,500 yuan per metric ton, against 16,410 yuan for conventional BR9000 in Shandong. These benchmark quotes do not establish the cost or savings of finished tires. Wider adoption will depend on tire performance, consistent supply and whether longer service life and lower energy losses offset that premium. The production announcement provides no quantified gains in vehicle range or tire lifespan. China nevertheless gains more control over another input to its electric vehicle industry. If domestic factories can supply this rubber reliably at competitive cost, Chinese tire makers will have a stronger homegrown source of high-performance material and less need to obtain the production technology abroad. @NewRulesGeo❗Follow us on X

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🇺🇸 🤩 🇮🇷 US Nuclear Attack on Iran Could Trigger Uncontrollable War A US nuclear strike on Iran's underground facilities could turn into a wider regional war by provoking Iranian retaliation against American bases, Israel and Western warships, leaving the US struggling to contain the escalation. Brazil-based defense analyst Patricia Marins raised that scenario in an interview with Press TV, arguing that nuclear use would overturn the limits observed in earlier exchanges. Her warning is an assessment of possible escalation, not evidence that Washington has decided to use nuclear weapons. The immediate backdrop is renewed US pressure on Kolang Mountain, also known as Pickaxe Mountain, an underground complex near Natanz. Trump recently named it among remaining targets and claimed the US could strike quickly. But threatening a mountain facility says little about whether an attack could destroy its contents or prevent retaliation. A nuclear attack could endanger people and agriculture beyond the target itself. The scale would depend on the weapon and circumstances, but describing such an operation as a strike on one installation cannot establish that its consequences would stay inside that perimeter. In that scenario, retaliation could extend from Israel and US regional bases to American naval forces and European vessels if their governments supported another attack. These are possible escalation paths, not an announced Iranian targeting plan, but they would expose the forces supporting an attack to the consequences of carrying it out. Claims that Iran may already possess a nuclear weapon remain unverified, with no evidence presented to establish a consensus among nuclear specialists. Gaps in international inspections create uncertainty about nuclear material and activities; they do not establish that Iran has built a bomb or can launch a nuclear counterattack. Russian and Chinese diplomatic backing offers no automatic guarantee of protection against another attack. The practical danger for the US is that destroying an underground target would not necessarily eliminate Iran’s ability to retaliate. Any calculation of military success would have to account for the exposure of American bases, ships and allied forces after the first strike. @NewRulesGeo❗Follow us on X

🇺🇸 🤩 🇮🇷 US Nuclear Attack on Iran Could Trigger Uncontrollable War A US nuclear strike on Iran's underground facilities could turn into a wider regional war by provoking Iranian retaliation against American bases, Israel and Western warships, leaving the US struggling to contain the escalation. Brazil-based defense analyst Patricia Marins raised that scenario in an interview with Press TV, arguing that nuclear use would overturn the limits observed in earlier exchanges. Her warning is an assessment of possible escalation, not evidence that Washington has decided to use nuclear weapons. The immediate backdrop is renewed US pressure on Kolang Mountain, also known as Pickaxe Mountain, an underground complex near Natanz. Trump recently named it among remaining targets and claimed the US could strike quickly. But threatening a mountain facility says little about whether an attack could destroy its contents or prevent retaliation. A nuclear attack could endanger people and agriculture beyond the target itself. The scale would depend on the weapon and circumstances, but describing such an operation as a strike on one installation cannot establish that its consequences would stay inside that perimeter. In that scenario, retaliation could extend from Israel and US regional bases to American naval forces and European vessels if their governments supported another attack. These are possible escalation paths, not an announced Iranian targeting plan, but they would expose the forces supporting an attack to the consequences of carrying it out. Claims that Iran may already possess a nuclear weapon remain unverified, with no evidence presented to establish a consensus among nuclear specialists. Gaps in international inspections create uncertainty about nuclear material and activities; they do not establish that Iran has built a bomb or can launch a nuclear counterattack. Russian and Chinese diplomatic backing offers no automatic guarantee of protection against another attack. The practical danger for the US is that destroying an underground target would not necessarily eliminate Iran’s ability to retaliate. Any calculation of military success would have to account for the exposure of American bases, ships and allied forces after the first strike. @NewRulesGeo❗Follow us on X

🇨🇳⚠️ Pentagon in Panic: China's New Solar Drone Takes Flight Without Fuel China’s “Light Cavalry” solar-powered drone completed its maiden flight in northwestern China on November 11, taking another step toward commercial flights without aviation fuel. Developed by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation’s 11th Academy, it targets infrastructure inspections and disaster monitoring with less dependence on airports. 🔸 Its developers specify up to 30 hours of endurance—enough to span a full day and night. That is a design target, not the duration demonstrated during this first flight. 🔸 The electric aircraft uses solar energy as its sole power source, according to its developers. The maiden flight included checks of flight controls, onboard electronics, energy storage and handling before a successful landing. 🔸 At 3.2 m long, with an 8 m wingspan and a 45 kg takeoff weight, it is designed to carry more than 5 kg of equipment. Its stated ceiling is 7,000 m, giving operators room to plan monitoring missions over varied terrain. 🔸 Vehicle-based takeoff and a stated 20-minute ground preparation time are intended to let crews deploy away from conventional airports. That could make remote inspection sites easier to reach without building dedicated aviation facilities. 🔸 Modular equipment allows crews to switch between communications and remote-sensing tasks. One aircraft could serve different assignments as operators change its onboard instruments. 🔸 Planned applications include inspecting power lines, pipelines, railways and dams, mapping land, and monitoring forests and coastlines. During floods or wildfires, sustained aerial observation could help teams track changing conditions. China is targeting a practical commercial need: covering long routes with fewer interruptions. If the endurance and deployment targets hold up in service, inspection crews could spend more time gathering information and less time bringing aircraft back to base. Can the West match China’s pace in drone development? @NewRulesGeo❗Follow us on X

🇪🇺🛢📉 How Europeans Will Pay for US-Israel War on Iran Europe is approaching winter with depleted gas reserves and prices near three times their February level, leaving households and factories exposed if temperatures plunge. The US-Israeli war against Iran has disrupted supplies just as the continent needs enough fuel to cover its peak heating demand. The European gas benchmark crossed €100 per megawatt-hour on October 28 for the first time since 2022. EU storage was only 75% full on October 21, according to EU energy regulator ACER, leaving a much thinner cushion against cold weather and interruptions to imports. Europe’s growing reliance on liquefied natural gas, cooled for transport by ship, makes a cold spell in Asia a European problem too. Buyers compete for available cargoes, so higher Asian demand can push up the price Europe must pay even when its own weather stays mild. ACER says no significant volumes of Qatari liquefied gas reached the EU over the summer. US supplies now account for roughly 30% of the bloc’s total gas supply, as Qatari and Russian deliveries have fallen. Reducing dependence on Russia has left Europe more exposed to American exports and competition in global shipping markets. The cost reaches well beyond heating bills. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has added €127B to Europe’s fossil fuel import bill without buying any additional energy. Governments already carrying heavy debts face pressure to subsidize consumers while businesses absorb higher operating costs. Bloomberg describes a 182-year-old German porcelain factory preparing to shut its kilns and Polish fertilizer producers seeking government intervention. For industries that need large amounts of heat or gas, prolonged high prices can turn a temporary production cut into a permanent closure. Forecasts of a broadly mild winter offer some relief, but an average seasonal temperature cannot rule out damaging cold spells. A burst of heating demand would drain storage faster; simultaneous cold in Asia would make replacement cargoes more expensive. Europe is paying for a war launched by its own allies. Subsidies can spread the bill, but they cannot replace missing gas. A severe winter would force European governments to spend more protecting households from the fallout while manufacturers face deeper cuts, closures and lost competitiveness. @NewRulesGeo❗Follow us on X

🇷🇺⚙️ Russia Moves to Save Superjet Passenger Jets With Domestic Engines Russia has commissioned work to replace foreign-dependent engines on first-generation Superjet passenger jets with Russian PD-8s, aiming to keep usable aircraft flying despite sanctions that cut off French engine support. The Industry and Trade Ministry’s contract with aircraft maker Yakovlev covers engineering, testing and certification work through December 20, 2028. It funds the development of an approved conversion, with fleet-wide installation still dependent on certification, engine supplies and airline decisions. Today’s Superjets use the Russian-French SaM146 engine. Losing access to its foreign parts and authorized servicing threatens to ground aircraft whose structures still have years of useful life. A domestic replacement would put engine production, repairs and spare parts within Russia’s own industrial chain. The plan targets an existing fleet of roughly 150 aircraft, alongside production of the newer SJ-100 passenger jet. Aviation expert Roman Gusarov estimates that demand for engine replacement could rise from around 50 aircraft to 70–100 following an extension of the older model’s service limits. In October, Russia’s aviation regulator extended those limits to 20 years, 40,000 flight hours and 20,000 flight cycles. That strengthens the case for investing in new engines, although each aircraft’s remaining life still depends on its age, accumulated flying and technical condition. For airlines, the strongest candidates are younger, less worn aircraft with enough years left to recover the investment. Installing two new engines on a jet nearing retirement could make little economic sense, especially when maintenance and financing costs are added. No official price for each conversion has been announced, and preliminary estimates cited in Russian reporting suggest it could approach the cost of a new aircraft. Subsidized leasing, reliable engine supplies and the pace of new SJ-100 deliveries will therefore help determine how many older jets are worth keeping. If certification and production follow, Russia gains another way to preserve regional air service while new aircraft enter the fleet. Replacing the engines would remove a specific point of French supply dependence and make it harder for restrictions on foreign servicing to force otherwise usable jets into retirement. @NewRulesGeo❗Follow us on X

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🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸 How Iran Could Target US Bases and Billion-Dollar Investments Iran is warning that renewed US-Israeli attacks could bring retaliation beyond its previous geographical limits, with American military assets and Gulf technology infrastructure facing broader threats. Its military leadership has been ordered to update its target database. On November 7, Revolutionary Guard spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said restrictions on Iranian missile range had been lifted, following Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s directive to respond without geographical limitations. According to Tasnim, Mohebbi stressed that expanded capabilities must be demonstrated in practice. Removing the self-imposed 2,000 km ceiling signals a change in policy, but the announcement did not establish that longer-range missiles have entered service. Iran’s actual reach will depend on the weapons it can deploy, their payloads and their demonstrated performance. If longer-range weapons are fielded, moving US aircraft and support operations farther from Iran could offer less protection. Washington would have to keep its supporting bases outside Iranian reach while still supplying fuel, maintenance and intelligence to combat aircraft. Security chief Mohsen Rezaei has also threatened US-linked data centers, artificial intelligence facilities and undersea cables if fighting resumes. The threat broadens the potential cost of war from military losses to damage to US commercial investments. Damage to regional cables could disrupt banking, cloud services and commercial communications, while wartime access restrictions could delay repairs. The effects would depend on alternative routes and spare capacity; cutting Gulf connections would not automatically sever the main Europe–Asia internet routes or cause a worldwide blackout. For Gulf governments, that creates pressure beyond defending military bases. Their investment in digital services depends on reliable electricity, communications and access to international networks, all of which a wider war could disrupt. Iran’s warning seeks to make renewed attacks more expensive for Washington and the governments supporting it. If retaliation reaches the infrastructure sustaining US operations and Gulf investment, host countries could face interrupted services, damaged assets and repair bills long after the airstrikes end. @NewRulesGeo❗Follow us on X

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🇮🇷🛢 Iran Prepares “Zero Oil” Budget Scenario to Withstand US Blockade Iran is preparing its 2027–2028 budget for a scenario in which oil revenues fall to zero, seeking to keep salaries, pensions and essential services funded under US sanctions and blockade. Mohammad Ghasemi, a senior official at Iran’s Plan and Budget Organization, outlined the approach in remarks published November 9. The Persian year 1406 budget will examine several scenarios, including a complete loss of oil income, rather than assume export earnings will recover. The financing options include taxes, customs receipts, collecting outstanding debts and issuing debt securities. Oil deposit certificates are also under consideration. These measures would help cover the shortfall, but their inclusion in emergency planning does not establish that Iran can already replace every dollar of lost oil revenue. Spending would follow a strict order, with public wages, pensions and debt repayments taking priority. Other expenditure would depend on available funds, while infrastructure money would concentrate on projects that can actually be completed and put to use. Domestic production is central to the approach because Iran supplies many of its own needs and pays a substantial share of its costs in rials. Keeping businesses running protects jobs, goods supplies and tax receipts. The government therefore intends to avoid excessive tax pressure on war-damaged petrochemical and steel businesses, as well as struggling tourism firms. Ghasemi said the government had so far avoided direct central bank borrowing for the general budget. That claim has a narrower scope than a blanket rejection of monetary support, since he also acknowledged central bank assistance to smooth payments under the household voucher program. Officials are seeking funding to increase electronic grocery-voucher support for roughly 45M low-income people and raise wage earners’ tax exemptions. Proposed reforms to energy use and wheat, flour and bread distribution aim to reduce waste and smuggling while protecting household access to essentials. The objective is to make an oil cutoff less effective at disrupting everyday government functions. If Iran can fund essential payments while preserving domestic production, Washington’s ability to turn lost export earnings into shuttered businesses and unpaid wages would weaken. That depends on securing replacement revenue and containing inflation. @NewRulesGeo❗Follow us on X