Nexo Radar

Daily Market Dispatch – April 6, 2026 Risk assets tick up on ceasefire hopes as Trump's Tuesday deadline looms Bitcoin and altcoins are up over the past 24 hours, as total crypto market cap edged up to $2.4 trillion. It comes on the back of Egyptian, Pakistani and Turkish mediators circulating a 45-day ceasefire proposal to Iran and the US on Monday, lifting risk assets. Trump extended his Strait of Hormuz deadline by 20 hours to Tuesday at 8pm ET. Brent crude pulled back to $108.54 from around $70 pre-war. The S&P 500 trades near multi-week highs, the 10-year yield at 4.05%, gold firm at $4,880. Markets are maintaining exposure but limiting risk expansion ahead of the deadline and this week's US inflation data. Bitcoin Bitcoin moved up 3% to $69,120 on Monday as traders returning from the Easter weekend covered heavily skewed short positions. Despite the move, Bitcoin remains within its five-week war range of $65,000 to $73,000, more than 45% below its October 2025 peak of $126,080. The range has held for five weeks. A ceasefire deal is the most likely catalyst to break it. Institutional positioning remains intact beneath the short-term noise. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and public company treasuries now hold approximately 12% of total supply, up from 8.7% a year earlier, with two Abu Dhabi sovereign funds holding more than $1 billion in BlackRock's IBIT at year-end. Ark Invest maintains a $761,900 price target by 2030, arguing that 80–95% drawdown cycles are structurally over as institutional participation deepens. Flow stabilisation, not price proximity to prior levels, remains the cleaner signal for renewed momentum. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum trades above $2,100 on Monday, up 3.8% over the past seven days, as ceasefire optimism lifted the broad market. ETF flow data tells a more nuanced story. During the March 2–13 recovery window, Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted $1.34 billion in net inflows while Ethereum drew only $184 million, less than 14% of Bitcoin's total. Structurally, Ethereum's institutional profile is expanding. BlackRock's staked Ethereum ETF (ETHB) launched last month, recording $15.5 million in first-day volume with $107 million in initial assets, passing through staking rewards at a net annual yield of 1.9%–2.2%. Among altcoins, XRP trades near $1.34, up 2.2% over the past 24H. BNB, Solana, and Cardano are modestly higher as well. Macro & Institutional The Strait of Hormuz remains the central risk variable. Trump has set a Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, which carries approximately 20% of global oil supply; Iran has rejected the ultimatum. Whether the strait reopens or escalation continues will directly determine how much of Friday's expected CPI jump — headline forecast at 3.4% year-on-year from 2.4% in February, reflects a transitory energy spike or a more persistent pass-through. Rate expectations remain the second-order variable: gold holds near $4,880 reflecting sustained policy uncertainty hedging, and dollar direction remains tied to rate differentials. Looking Ahead Three data points will drive markets this week — FOMC Minutes, Core PCE, and CPI, all centred on whether US disinflation holds under Middle East-driven energy pressure. FOMC Minutes on Wednesday will be scrutinised for the Fed's tolerance for delayed cuts as supply risk feeds into input costs. Thursday's Core PCE is forecast at 3.0% year-on-year, consistent with the disinflationary trend. But an upside surprise alongside Q4 GDP at 0.7% would leave the Fed caught between slowing growth and sticky prices. Friday's headline CPI is expected to jump to 3.4% from 2.4% in February, driven by energy. The market will look past the headline and into core at 2.7%. Any deviation from consensus sets the US rate path for Q2 and conditions how far the current stabilization in risk assets can extend. - Dessislava Ianeva, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – April 3, 2026 Bitcoin steady near $67,000 as jobs data gives reason for cautious optimism Bitcoin is trading near $67,000, showing a muted reaction to today's US jobs report — itself a constructive sign given the macro significance of the data. Nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 in March, well above the 65,000 median estimate, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%. Total crypto market cap is holding near $2.3 trillion. With Wall Street closed for Good Friday and liquidity thin across traditional markets, Bitcoin is functioning as one of the few major assets still offering continuous two-way price discovery — Brent crude is at $109, gold near $4,637, the dollar steady, and equity futures muted. The full market response to today's data waits until Monday. Bitcoin Bitcoin is range-bound between $65,800 and $67,400, holding a narrow band that has persisted since early February. The week's narrative played out in both directions: a brief push toward $68,000 on de-escalation hopes mid-week, followed by a reversal once those hopes faded. The 200-week EMA at $68,000 remains the level to reclaim for any meaningful recovery; below $66,000, the $65,000–$63,300 demand zone is the next structural reference. The derivatives picture confirms a market without strong directional conviction. Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has declined to 51.28% — its lowest since February. On ETF flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $9 million in inflows on Thursday, a modest but positive read heading into the long weekend. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum edged up 0.4% to around $2,059, with XRP up 0.2% and Solana trading flat. Spot ETH ETFs recorded $71 million in outflows on Thursday — a significant divergence from Bitcoin's positive flow day and a signal that institutional appetite between the two assets remains uneven. The ETH supply tightening story — record staking levels, exchange reserves at 2016 lows, remains structurally intact but needs a sentiment shift before it can reassert itself as a price catalyst. Macro & Institutional Brent is at $109, having swung from $70 pre-disruption to $120 at its peak, back toward $98 mid-week, and now resettled above $100. The energy market is repricing on every signal, and with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed, the structural supply constraint remains in place. Iran and Oman are reportedly drafting a protocol to manage vessel traffic through the strait — a constructive development that briefly pared oil's gains Thursday, though crude traders appear unconvinced it amounts to a genuine reopening. If the protocol materialises into actual restored flows, it would be the most significant macro catalyst of the quarter for risk assets. Gold is holding near $4,637 after pulling back from a four-session winning streak. Speculative positioning has been flushed, ETF outflows have been contained, and Chinese physical demand remains healthy — leaving the medium-term setup constructive. A structural shift in the gold market appears underway, with a broadening base of investors treating it as a long-term strategic portfolio hedge rather than a tactical trade. The $4,000 level, should it be tested, would likely attract meaningful buying. Looking Ahead Monday's open will be the first chance for markets to formally price the latest jobs data — and Bitcoin will have had three days of uninterrupted price discovery to set the tone. With the NFP absorbed and Wall Street dark, next week's inflation and growth data will set the direction for Q2. Monday brings ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and prices — the first services-sector read for March. Thursday is the key day: Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, alongside Q4 GDP and initial jobless claims — a triple release that could materially reprice rate expectations. Friday closes with CPI. With the energy shock still feeding through to prices, every inflation print next week carries asymmetric weight for crypto. - Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – April 2, 2026 Geopolitics take center stage as crypto awaits its next macro catalyst Geopolitics are again weighing on sentiment. Markets are giving back some of this week's gains — Bitcoin is edging towrds $67,000, down 2% in 24 hours, with total crypto market cap retreating to $2.29 trillion. Wednesday's presidential address signaled a continuation of military operations over the next two to three weeks rather than the wind-down markets had been pricing. US equity futures are down 1%–1.5%, European stocks opened 1.2% lower, Brent crude has surged back above $107, gold has pulled back to $4,637, and the dollar has firmed 0.4%–0.5%. With no structural resolution in sight, every rally remains a trade, not a trend. Bitcoin Bitcoin fell to lows of $66,250 before recovering to around $66,700, down 3% on the day. The address offered no clarity on Hormuz reopening — the single variable markets are pricing above all others, and onchain data confirms a market still in redistribution: supply in loss near 8.4 million BTC, long-term holder capitulation still active, and spot demand only beginning to absorb sell pressure. Bitcoin is not in outright stress, but it is still searching for conviction. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $173 million in outflows on Wednesday, snapping the positive momentum that had briefly returned earlier in the week. The 200-week EMA at $68,000 is the level to reclaim; below $66,000, the $65,000–$63,300 demand zone comes back into focus. Moody's issuance of the first-ever credit rating on Bitcoin-backed bonds — a provisional Ba2 on New Hampshire state revenue bonds, is a quietly significant milestone underlining the long-term structural legitimacy building around Bitcoin as a financial asset. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum fell 3.% to around $2,049, with XRP down 3.6%, Solana, Cardano, and BNB each sliding 4%–7%, and Dogecoin off 4.6%. Spot ETH ETFs recorded $7 million in outflows on Wednesday, adding to the broader de-risking move. Near-term price action is entirely macro-driven, with no asset-specific divergence. The ETH supply tightening story — record staking levels, exchange reserves at 2016 lows, remains structurally intact but needs a sentiment shift before it can reassert itself as a price catalyst. Macro & Institutional Brent is back above $107 — a 6.6% single-session surge that unwound Wednesday's entire decline, as the energy market continues to swing sharply on each policy signal. Ryanair has warned of potential jet fuel disruptions to Europe from June, Lufthansa flagged supply tightness in Asia, and Shell is in advanced talks with Venezuela to expand gas development — early signs of a structural energy market realignment already underway. Gold pulled back to $4,637, snapping a four-session winning streak as oil's surge reignited inflation fears. The pullback looks more like a positioning reset than a structural shift — speculative exposure has been largely flushed out, leaving the medium-term setup constructive. Metaplanet acquired 5,075 BTC in Q1 for approximately $405 million, bringing total holdings to 40,177 BTC and cementing its position as the third-largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder globally — the accumulation at an average price of $79,900 underscoring that institutional buyers are not waiting for macro clarity before building positions. Looking Ahead Friday's nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate are the week's defining print. The labor market is showing signs of softening — job openings at 6.88 million in February, hires rate at its lowest since April 2020. Powell described conditions as a "zero-employment growth equilibrium with a feel of downside risk" and economists expect unemployment to hold at 4.4%, though 4.5% is within range. With Bitcoin between $65,000 and $68,000, Friday's payrolls carry asymmetric weight for crypto heading into the weekend. - Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – April 1, 2026 Crypto rises as de-escalation hopes drive Q2 rally Crypto is opening Q2 with a meaningful relief rally. Bitcoin is trading above $68,500, up nearly 2%, with total crypto market cap firming as President Trump said the US could exit the conflict within two to three weeks — even without a formal deal. US equity futures are up 0.5%–0.7%, European stocks surged over 2%, Brent has slipped toward $102, and gold has climbed to $4,719 for a fourth consecutive session of gains. The signal is the clearest yet — but with the Strait of Hormuz still closed and Iran still setting conditions, markets are rallying on direction rather than resolution. Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading near $68,500, recovering from a Q1 that saw it fall 23.8% — its worst first-quarter performance since 2018. The broader context is constructive: this cycle's drawdown of 46% from the October 2025 all-time high is notably shallower than the 77% peak-to-trough seen in 2022 — a sign of a maturing market with stronger institutional confidence, per Fidelity Digital Assets. Bitcoin is now hovering at the 200-week EMA at $68,000, a level that has served as key support in prior downturns and the most important technical reference heading into Q2. On ETF flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs closed Q1 with $500 million in net outflows — $1.8 billion in the first two months offset by $1.32 billion in March inflows, the first monthly gain since October 2025. Cumulative inflows stand at $56 billion with total AUM of $87.5 billion. Analysts note long-term institutional conviction remains intact — the Q1 move has been more cyclical than fundamental. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum rose to $2,149, with XRP up 2.8%, Solana, Cardano, and BNB each gaining 1%–2.5%, and Dogecoin adding 2.7%. On the ETF front, spot ETH ETFs closed Q1 with $769 million in net outflows — the largest quarterly loss among crypto ETF categories. Solana ETFs were the standout, recording $213 million in consecutive monthly inflows since launching in October 2025 without a single month of outflows. Macro & Institutional Brent has retreated toward $102 from last week's highs near $115, driving the relief across equities and risk assets. Tuesday's data was mixed: consumer confidence beat at 91.8, but JOLTS job openings came in at 6.88 million — below January's 7.24 million and the lowest hiring rate since April 2020. Eurozone CPI rose to 2.5% in March, above the ECB's 2% target, keeping the tightening narrative alive even as energy prices ease. Gold at $4,719 is recovering as the dollar softens, with Goldman Sachs maintaining its $5,400 year-end target and calling current levels a more attractive entry point after speculative positioning fell to the 39th percentile. OpenAI closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, anchored by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, with ChatGPT now at 900 million weekly active users and $2 billion in monthly revenue — a signal of the scale of capital flowing into AI infrastructure and its downstream implications for digital assets. Looking Ahead Bitcoin at the 200-week EMA of $68,000 is the technical line that matters most heading into the rest of the week — a sustained hold reopens the path toward $71,500. Today's data slate is the immediate focus: ADP payrolls, retail sales, and manufacturing PMIs from S&P Global and ISM give the first full read on how Q1 closed for the US economy. Thursday brings initial jobless claims before Friday's defining prints — nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate — the most important macro release of the week. A softer labor market combined with continued de-escalation would shift the rates calculus meaningfully in crypto's favor, and with Bitcoin back at a key technical level, the setup into Friday is the most consequential of the quarter so far. - Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – March 31, 2026 Digital assets steady as Q2 begins with cautious optimism Digital assets are closing out a turbulent quarter on a constructive note. Total crypto market cap has settled around $2.3 trillion, Bitcoin is holding above $67,000, and spot Bitcoin ETFs have flipped back to positive with $70 million in inflows — a signal that institutional interest remains intact. Spot ETH ETFs added nearly $5 million, a modest but meaningful sign that conviction is broadening. Traditional markets are more mixed: US equity futures are up 0.8% but the S&P 500 is on track for its worst quarter in nearly four years, Brent crude is near $115, gold is recovering modestly to $4,556 after its worst month in 17 years, and the dollar remains firm. The setup heading into Q2 is more constructive for crypto than the quarter-end price action suggests. Bitcoin Bitcoin reclaimed $66,900 on Monday after spending the weekend below that level, shifting the immediate condition from downside acceptance toward early repair. The level has become the week's pivot point — it gave way as support on Friday, held as resistance through multiple weekend rejections, and has now flipped back to tentative support. The next test is $68,000, the top of the active channel and the first meaningful validation point for any recovery. A hold above $66,900 on pullbacks followed by acceptance above $68,000 would reverse the most consequential damage from Friday's breakdown and reopen the route toward $71,500 — the higher boundary that rejected price several times before last week's selloff. Long-term holders added 155,450 BTC over the past 30 days and exchange withdrawals hit 16-month highs, reducing available sell-side. The $65,000–$66,000 zone remains the deeper support where whale bid orders are concentrated. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum is trading above $2,000, set to close March with a near 5% gain — a notable outperformer after six months of persistent losses, and a sign that the supply tightening story is beginning to find an audience. With 33.1% of circulating ETH staked at record levels, exchange reserves at their lowest since 2016, and the validator entry queue holding nearly 2.9 million ETH against an exit queue of just 40,000, the structural setup remains stronger than the price alone suggests. The broader altcoin picture is more mixed to close the quarter. XRP is down 3.9% in March, Solana off 1.3%, and Cardano headed for a 12.6% monthly loss — the worst among major cryptos. Macro & Institutional The dollar is back above 100 on the DXY as the oil shock forces an uncomfortable choice on central banks worldwide. In Japan, hawkish BoJ minutes warning that policy risks falling behind the curve have revived debate around a 50bp hike, with Wednesday's Tankan the next test. The ECB, by contrast, appears reluctant to hike in April, leaving the euro exposed to any further rise in energy prices. On the institutional side, Senators Lummis and Cassidy introduced the Mined in America Act, which would codify Trump's strategic Bitcoin reserve executive order into law and create a voluntary certification program for US mining operations. Looking Ahead Q2 opens with Bitcoin at $67,000 and a Fed that, in Powell's own words, sees rates in "a good place to wait and see." Speaking Monday at Harvard, Powell ruled out systemic contagion in private credit and framed the inflation overshoot as largely tariff-driven and transitory – a read that reduces the probability of the hike scenario markets have been pricing. The data calendar will test that view: CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS today, ADP payrolls, Retail sales, and Manufacturing PMIs Wednesday, Jobless claims Thursday, and the week's defining print, Nonfarm payrolls and Unemployment on Friday. With Bitcoin range-bound between $66,900 and $68,000, the incoming data carries asymmetric weight. Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – March 26, 2026 Bitcoin slips below $70,000 amid macroeconomic uncertainty Bitcoin has slipped just below $70,000 with the total crypto market cap near $2.37 trillion – a resilient showing given that oil has climbed back above $100 and risk appetite has softened across equities and traditional safe havens alike. US equity futures are pointing lower by around 0.8%, with the S&P 500 sitting at 6,591, and gold slipping to $4,441. Crypto is absorbing the macro pressure with more composure than most asset classes, and the structural case for digital assets remains intact even as the near-term backdrop stays choppy. Bitcoin Bitcoin is holding near $70,000, down 1.5% on the day and testing a level that has proven resilient throughout March. A recovery above $70,000 keeps the path toward $72,000 open, with Friday's options expiry creating a natural magnet at $75,000 – and the setup remains more constructive than the headline pullback suggests. Notably, Bitcoin has outperformed gold by 25% since energy market disruptions began, underscoring its growing appeal as a macro hedge in an environment where traditional safe havens are struggling. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum is trading below $2,100, down 2% on the day, with XRP off 2.5%, Solana and Cardano each shedding around 3%, and Dogecoin down 4.3%. The moves track Bitcoin's session rather than any asset-specific deterioration – and crucially, the derivatives positioning that drove ETH open interest to August highs earlier this week has not materially unwound, providing a constructive base for when sentiment turns. The altcoin complex has shown it can move quickly when macro conditions allow, and that potential remains firmly in place. Macro & Institutional Oil is back above $100, with Brent near $107, reversing Wednesday's decline as energy supply constraints showed no sign of easing and ceasefire negotiations remained in their early stages. The direct read-through for crypto is via rates: markets are now pricing roughly a 38% chance of a Fed hike by December – a scenario that would reprice risk assets across the board, but one that fades quickly if energy markets normalize. That asymmetry is worth keeping in mind; the macro headwind is real but contingent, not structural. Gold's surrender of all its 2026 gains – down 1.5% to $4,441 tells the same story from a different angle. The metal has struggled not because the safe-haven case has broken down, but because dollar strength and rising yields have dominated in the near term. With central bank buying still intact and long-term support unchanged, the pullback looks more like an entry point in the making than a thesis reversal. A similar logic applies to crypto at current levels. Looking Ahead Whether Bitcoin can reclaim and hold $70,000 into Friday's options expiry is the immediate question. Today's initial jobless claims came in at 210,000, marginally below the 211,000 forecast and up from 205,000 the prior week – a modest uptick that signals some softening at the edges of the labor market without raising alarm. For crypto, the read is cautiously constructive: a labor market that is resilient but gently cooling gives the Fed less justification for the rate hike scenario markets have been pricing, shifting the balance of probabilities back toward cuts rather than tightening. Fed Vice Chair Barr speaks this evening, and his tone will be the next data point to watch. Next week picks up with Eurozone CPI, US consumer confidence, JOLTS job openings, and retail sales – a slate that will offer the clearest read yet on how the energy shock is feeding through to growth and price pressures. – Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

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Daily Market Dispatch – March 25, 2026 Crypto firms up in wait-and-see mode as a catalyst takes shape Bitcoin is holding above $71,000 and total crypto market cap is edging back toward $2.45 trillion, as fresh hopes of a diplomatic resolution in the Middle East give markets a reason to lean cautiously positive. US equity futures are up around 1%, Brent crude has slipped back below $100 to $97.70 and gold is recovering 1.8% to $4,553. The key question now is whether this momentum holds or follows the pattern of recent weeks – a brief relief rally quickly reversed by fresh developments on the ground. Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading around $71,800, up 1.2% on the day and approaching the $72,000 level for the third time this month. A clean break above it opens the path toward $75,000, where Friday's multibillion-dollar options expiry creates a natural magnet — and the setup is more constructive than previous attempts. The broader derivatives picture supports that read. Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility has declined for a third straight day toward 53% – a sign that positioning is becoming more measured and the risk premium is gradually fading. Put skews continue to weaken, and with futures open interest stabilizing toward $30 billion, there is real capital behind this move. ETF flows have seen a slight reversal, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $66 million in outflows. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum is outperforming on Wednesday, up 1.2% to around $2,172, with ETH futures open interest jumping to its highest level since August alongside positive funding rates pointing to growing demand for longs. Spot ETH ETFs recorded $40 million in outflows, though the derivatives positioning suggests underlying demand remains intact. Solana rose 2.6%, Cardano and Polygon each climbed 3%, and Dogecoin jumped 4.1%. DeFi tokens are among the standout performers, gaining 2.5%–3.5% on the day. The altcoin complex is showing relative strength, and if ETH open interest continues to build, a rotation into majors and DeFi could become the dominant trade as sentiment improves. Macro & Institutional Brent back below $100, down over 6% on the day, is the clearest market signal yet that a potential resolution is being priced. A sustained move lower would force a reassessment of the rates and inflation outlook that has dominated markets for weeks. Gold's recovery to $4,553 reinforces the dynamic: lower oil dampens yields and the dollar, both of which have been the primary headwind for bullion. The ten-session losing streak may be turning. Last week's flash PMI data added urgency to the picture, with the US reading falling to an eleven-month low and the Eurozone flagging stagflation risks — the first hard evidence that the energy shock is feeding through to growth. The longer supply constraints persist, the more that narrative solidifies and the narrower the room for central banks to maneuver. On the institutional side, the Reserve Bank of Australia this week declared tokenization a matter of "how, not if," estimating AU$24 billion in annual efficiency gains from tokenized wholesale markets and announcing a new digital financial market infrastructure sandbox. A regional signal, but consistent with the broader direction: the infrastructure buildout in digital assets continues on its own timeline. Looking Ahead $72,000 remains the line in Bitcoin as the third test of this level is underway, and the outcome will set the tone into the weekend. Friday's options expiry, with max pain pointing to $75,000, adds a structural tailwind if bulls can hold ground. ECB President Lagarde speaks today and is widely expected to sound hawkish given recent inflation forecast revisions – her tone on the rates path will be closely watched. US initial jobless claims follow on Thursday alongside Fed Vice Chair Barr, keeping central bank tone in focus through the close. – Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – March 23, 2026 Crypto outperforms amid fragile risk sentiment Bitcoin is trading above $71,000 on Monday, in the green over the past 24 hours and outperforming most traditional assets, as gold extends its losing streak to nine days and US stock futures point lower across the board. Markets are increasingly pricing the possibility that sustained energy inflation forces central banks to hike rather than cut, with Brent crude above $114 and the IEA describing the Hormuz disruption as an oil shock worse than anything seen in the 1970s. Risk sentiment is likely to remain volatile as a Trump ultimatum to reopen the strait expires this evening with Iran showing no sign of compliance. Bitcoin Bitcoin's resilience is notable as investors reduce exposure to most other assets, with gold and equities feeling the pinch in tandem. In contrast, total crypto market capitalisation has inched up 1.3% in March despite volatile risk sentiment. Derivatives markets have held up comparatively well. Funding rates remain contained, leverage has not rebuilt aggressively, and there is no sign of the crowded long positioning that typically precedes a disorderly unwind. The underlying demand picture has remained more resilient than price action alone would suggest. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $95.18 million last week, marking the fourth consecutive week of positive flows, indicating that institutional demand has continued to absorb selling pressure even as the macro backdrop deteriorated. Spot cumulative volume delta, a measure of net buying and selling, has been essentially flat since early March relative to February's sharp deterioration, suggesting distribution has slowed and sellers are largely exhausted. Ethereum & Altcoins Altcoins followed Bitcoin higher across the board on Monday. Ether rose more than 5% to $2,157 over the past 24 hours but remains down on the week. XRP gained 3% to $1.42 and Solana is up around 5%, nearing $90. ETF flows reflect a more nuanced picture. SOL and XRP spot ETFs added $21.10 million and $0.64 million respectively, while Ethereum spot ETFs bucked the trend with net outflows of $59.94 million, continuing a pattern of institutional selectivity that has consistently favoured Bitcoin and select layer-one assets over Ethereum in periods of macro stress. Funding rates are slightly negative but open interest has remained relatively stable, suggesting limited deleveraging. Macro & Institutional The sell-everything dynamic that has dominated since the Iran conflict began is intensifying. Gold has fallen roughly 18% from its recent highs — its worst sustained run in years, as markets pivot from geopolitical hedging to pricing in a higher-for-longer rate environment. Sustained energy inflation raises the probability that central banks tighten rather than ease, and non-yielding assets are repricing accordingly. Equities are in their fourth consecutive week of losses. The Russell 2000 has entered correction territory, and both the Nasdaq and the Dow touched correction levels intraday on Friday before closing fractionally above them. Bond markets are now pricing more than 50 basis points of additional tightening in the US and eurozone relative to pre-war levels, with curves under pressure on both ends. Looking Ahead Fed speakers dominate the week's calendar — Barr, Cook, Jefferson, and Daly are all scheduled, with markets watching for any dovish lean relative to rate-hike pricing that has moved well beyond the Fed's own dot plot. Tuesday's flash PMIs for the US, eurozone, and UK will provide the first hard activity read since the energy shock deepened, and any softening in growth data would add complexity to the central bank calculus rather than resolve it. The Strait of Hormuz deadline is the immediate wildcard: a surprise move toward de-escalation would likely be the single most powerful catalyst for a risk recovery this week. — Dessislava Ianeva, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – March 20, 2026 Crypto steadies as energy markets show first signs of cooling Bitcoin has clawed back to $70,800 after overnight lows under $68,900, with total crypto market cap stabilizing near $2.4 trillion, riding a nearly 2% drop in WTI crude to $93.80 following a joint G7 statement pledging coordinated steps to stabilize energy markets and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. It is a constructive end to a bruising week – but with the S&P 500 closing below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May last year, and oil still far above pre-conflict levels, the bounce looks more like stabilization than reversal. How durable it proves will depend almost entirely on developments that have nothing to do with crypto. Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading around $70,800, recovering from a dip to $68,814 on Thursday and still well off the $76,000 high seen earlier this week. The $70,000 level remains the one that matters – a convincing hold invites a stabilization trade and takes some pressure off leveraged positioning; a failure reopens the path toward the next support cluster. The onchain picture offers a cautious reason for optimism: VanEck's mid-March ChainCheck shows long-term holder selling has slowed across every age cohort, a sign that experienced participants are reducing distribution rather than accelerating it. Miners are a more fragile piece of the picture. Broader onchain activity remains thin, with transfer volume down 31% and fees down 27%, as trading continues to migrate toward derivatives and ETF venues – a structural shift that makes price discovery increasingly driven by macro flows rather than native demand. Ethereum & Altcoins ETH is trading near $2,174, with XRP and SOL each up less than 1% on the day, all lagging Bitcoin in the bounce and reflecting a risk appetite that remains selective rather than broad. The ETH/BTC ratio continues to compress, and the ETF flow data underlines the gap: spot ETH ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $136 million on March 19, bringing total net assets to $12.46 billion – representing 4.81% of Ethereum's total market value. Until macro sentiment shifts more durably, altcoins are unlikely to lead. Macro & Institutional Energy market disruptions remain the dominant variable. Brent is near $108, still significantly above pre-disruption levels, with supply constraints carrying a structural dimension that a Hormuz reopening alone may not fully resolve. Gold's 8% weekly loss – its worst since early 2020, captures the bind: safe-haven demand overwhelmed by dollar strength and rising yields, a dynamic more consistent with an inflationary shock than a flight to safety. The rates picture is where the real risk for crypto is building. The 2-year Treasury yield has risen 50 basis points in under three weeks; overnight index swaps now price a 10% chance of a Fed hike by April, up from 0% on Wednesday. The ECB held at 2% but Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and JPMorgan all now expect tightening ahead. Against that backdrop, the institutional build-out in crypto is continuing on its own timeline. Morgan Stanley is advancing its spot Bitcoin ETF application – the first major US bank moving from distribution to direct issuance. A Ripple survey of 1,000+ finance leaders finds 70% view digital assets as a competitive necessity, with stablecoins the leading use case for treasury and working capital management. Looking Ahead The immediate question is whether $70,000 holds through the weekend and whether the G7 energy statement marks a turning point or simply buys time. Next week is a lighter one on the data front – UK CPI, US initial jobless claims, BOJ core CPI, and a speech from ECB President Lagarde are the main waypoints. Each carries enough weight to move rate expectations further in either direction, and with the hike probability now a live conversation, none of them are routine reads. – Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

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Daily Market Dispatch – March 19, 2026 Crypto pulls back as rates and energy concerns compound Bitcoin has tested the $70,000 level as a hawkish Federal Reserve and a rise in oil prices converged into a broad risk-off move across global markets. Total crypto market capitalization has retreated towards $2.4 trillion, with Bitcoin down almost 5% in 24 hours and Ethereum shedding nearly 7%. Brent crude has spiked above $114, while European gas prices have soared 25%. Central banks from Washington to Tokyo are holding rates while bracing for an environment where inflation stays elevated and growth softens. Bitcoin Bitcoin fell from above $74,000 to briefly touch $69,000 before recovering to around $70,800, extending the retreat from the $76,000 high earlier this week. The $70,000 mark has now become a key price level, where a further break below it could signal more deleveraging ahead. The move is driven by positioning and rates rather than anything crypto-specific. The Fed held at 3.5%–3.75% but revised its 2026 inflation forecast up to 2.7% from 2.4%, while Powell warned markets to treat the dot plot with "even more skepticism than usual." When the FOMC outcome collided with surging oil prices, tightening liquidity and rising yields did the rest: leveraged positions unwound, turning what might have been an orderly pullback into a sharper correction. One nuance worth noting: Bitcoin is outperforming gold over the past 24 hours, losing roughly half as much as the precious metal. Gold entered this period of volatility technically overextended after a 90% annual run and is now 17% below its January peak. Bitcoin, having already absorbed a 43% drawdown from its October 2025 all-time high, carries less froth to unwind, though a recovery catalyst remains to be found. Confirming the shift in sentiment, the seven-day spot ETF inflow streak has snapped, with Wednesday recording $163 million in outflows. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum dropped 6–7% to around $2,160, with altcoins following broadly. XRP fell 3.5% to $1.47, Solana and Polygon each declined 4%, Cardano plunged 6%, and Dogecoin slipped 5%. Spot ETH ETF flows have also reversed: after a positive start to the week with $55 million in inflows, the risk-off turn has snapped that momentum. The altcoin complex broadly remains influenced by the wider market sentiment and in search of a near-term catalyst to reverse it. Macro & Institutional Escalating disruptions to Middle East energy infrastructure sent Brent as high as $119 before settling around $114–$117, with European gas prices surging 25% on supply concerns around key LNG facilities. WTI trades at its widest discount to Brent in over a decade, reflecting U.S. strategic reserve releases. The bind for central banks is a familiar one from 2022, and no less difficult for it: monetary policy can cool demand-driven inflation, but it cannot repair a supply shock that simultaneously raises prices and weighs on growth. The BOJ held at 0.75% and flagged energy costs as a direct risk to Japan's inflation path. The ECB, Bank of England, and SNB are all expected to hold later today. On the institutional side, the SEC approved a rule change allowing Nasdaq to support trading of tokenized shares, with settlement via a DTCC pilot program. Tokenized shares will share the same order book and execution priority as traditional equities. Looking Ahead The ECB and Bank of England decisions are the next waypoints today, alongside U.S. weekly jobless claims – the first labor market read since the inflation data raised the stakes considerably. Any softening in employment would add complexity to the Fed's calculus rather than resolve it. For crypto, the $70,000 level remains the immediate focus: a hold opens the door to stabilization, but the rates and energy backdrop offers little cover for a durable recovery until one or both show signs of turning. – Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – March 18, 2026 Fed day arrives as crypto consolidates Total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.49 trillion as Bitcoin trades around $72,000, consolidating gains from the prior session's rally toward $76,000. Institutional inflows remain firmly positive, and a landmark SEC–CFTC regulatory ruling has removed a longstanding barrier to broader crypto participation. But the macro backdrop is tightening: oil is above $100, gold has slipped below $5,000, and all eyes are on the Federal Reserve's rate decision and Powell's press conference for signals on how long restrictive conditions will persist. Bitcoin Bitcoin slightly retreated below $72,000, yet still supported by seven consecutive days of spot ETF inflows totaling approximately $1.17 billion, the longest uninterrupted streak since October 2025, with a daily inflow on Tuesday of $199.4 million. This is broadly read as structural demand from long-mandate institutions that absorb supply on dips and lend price stability even when broader sentiment is fragile. On-chain positioning confirms the shift in market tone. Data shows new long positions have been opened above $73,000, funding rates have flipped from deeply negative to broadly positive since March 15, and the taker buy/sell ratio for both Bitcoin and Ether has stayed above 1 since mid-March with buy orders dominating. The near-term ceiling, however, is clear: CryptoQuant identifies $75,000 as the first meaningful resistance, followed by $85,000, a level that capped the rally in both January and October 2025. A hawkish Fed today would likely keep Bitcoin pinned below $75,000 and extend consolidation; a more balanced tone could set up a retest. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum edged up towards $2,300, before settling around $2200, with spot ETH ETFs recording $138.3 million in inflows on Tuesday – their sixth consecutive positive day, reinforcing the rotation narrative. XRP rose 1% towards $1.50, Solana gained 0.7%, and Cardano jumped 2.5%. Solana and XRP ETFs also saw inflows of $17.8 million and $4.6 million respectively. However, some of these gains have been partially reversed intraday on Wednesday, as pre-Fed caution keeps a lid on momentum across the complex. The broader altcoin market remains rangebound alongside Bitcoin. Macro & Institutional The week's most significant regulatory development arrived on Tuesday: the SEC and CFTC jointly released a 68-page guidance formally classifying most cryptocurrencies as non-securities, introducing a token taxonomy that distinguishes digital commodities, stablecoins, and digital tools from assets subject to securities law. The move marks a decisive break from the Gensler era and is widely expected to accelerate institutional allocations that have been held back by compliance uncertainty – the primary blocker for asset managers and banks just became significantly harder to sustain. Gold has retreated to $4,987 as higher-for-longer rate expectations weigh on non-yielding assets, and the dollar holds steady at 99.57. The Fed is expected to hold at 3.5%–3.75%, but the dot plot carries the real weight today – any shift toward zero cuts in 2026 would represent a meaningful hawkish tilt. Looking Ahead Powell's press conference is the main event today, with markets focused squarely on the updated dot plot and any signal on the pace of cuts or the absence of them. Thursday brings a sweep of central bank decisions – the Bank of Japan, ECB, SNB, and Bank of England are all navigating the same oil shock from different positions of vulnerability. The BOJ faces its own pressure, with the yen already strained by high crude import costs. U.S. jobless claims round out what is shaping up to be one of the most consequential 48-hour stretches for global monetary policy this year. – Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – March 17, 2026 Crypto recovery gains traction as flows return and momentum builds Crypto markets extended their recovery, with total market capitalization climbing to $2.53 trillion, as Bitcoin holds above $74,000 and Ethereum outperforms amid improving flows and positioning. The move is increasingly underpinned by spot demand and institutional participation rather than purely technical factors. Traditional markets remain more cautious. U.S. futures are pointing lower while oil holds above $100 amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Gold continues to trade rangebound near $5,000, while the U.S. dollar firms slightly as markets reassess inflation risks ahead of a dense week of central bank decisions. Bitcoin Bitcoin’s move back above $74,000 marks a shift from a short-term rebound to a more structurally supported recovery, reinforced by multiple drivers: spot ETF inflows, renewed on-chain buyer activity, and continued corporate accumulation. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded over $1.3 billion in inflows so far in March, with consistent daily demand pointing to renewed institutional participation. On-chain data shows a return of buyer activity following February’s sell-off, with CryptoQuant noting that “buyer activity has returned after an aggressive selling period in February”. This is a meaningful shift, as a market supported by spot demand rather than leverage tends to exhibit more durability through volatility. Bitcoin’s behavior during the recent geopolitical escalation has also stood out. While not a traditional safe haven, it has shown relative resilience compared to equities, hinting at a gradual shift in how it is positioned within portfolios. Flows, macro positioning, and institutional demand are beginning to align in a combination that typically signals a more stable phase of recovery. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum is beginning to lead the current move, climbing above $2,300 and outperforming Bitcoin – a potential early signal of rotation into altcoins. U.S. spot Ether ETFs recorded their strongest weekly inflows since mid-January at $160 million, while new product structures, including yield-bearing vehicles, are expanding institutional access. Structurally, Ethereum is moving out of a prolonged period of underperformance. A sustained breakout versus Bitcoin would likely signal a broader shift in market leadership toward higher-beta assets, reinforcing the idea that capital is beginning to rotate beyond Bitcoin into more growth-sensitive segments of the market. Elsewhere, XRP has surged above $1.50, supported by rising open interest. Macro & Institutional Macro remains the key driver. Oil continues to trade above $100 as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz persist, raising concerns over renewed inflation pressures. Central banks are responding cautiously. The Reserve Bank of Australia has already raised rates, while the Federal Reserve and others are expected to hold, but the focus is on forward guidance. Markets are increasingly reassessing how long restrictive conditions may persist. The U.S. dollar has edged higher, while gold remains rangebound, reflecting the tension between safe-haven demand and higher rate expectations. Looking Ahead Attention turns to a dense midweek macro calendar, with Eurozone CPI and U.S. PPI on Wednesday shaping inflation expectations ahead of the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve rate decisions. On Thursday, focus shifts to the Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of England, followed by U.S. jobless claims and the ECB’s decision – offering a broad read on how policymakers are responding to rising energy-driven inflation risks, with direct implications for liquidity across risk assets. – Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – March 13, 2026 Bitcoin breaks $72,000 as Iran war reshapes macro landscape and PCE lands in line Total crypto market capitalization has edged to $2.47 trillion, with Bitcoin pushing through $72,000 during European hours on Friday and outpacing gold, silver, and major stock indexes on a week-to-date basis. Industry-wide open interest climbed 5% to $107.6 billion – a signal of renewed capital deployment. The backdrop would ordinarily weigh heavily on risk assets: oil near $100, the Dollar Index above 100, and inflation expectations shifting higher. That crypto is advancing through it marks a meaningful divergence. January PCE landed in line on Friday – core at 3.1% year-on-year, headline at 2.8%, confirming inflation was already drifting from the Fed's 2% target before the Iran war began. The data captures none of the energy-driven pressures accumulating since late February, making it a baseline the coming months are likely to revise higher. Markets are pricing no Fed cuts until at least September. Bitcoin Bitcoin's recovery from the mid-$60,000s to above $72,000 reflects a market that consolidated quickly and rebuilt on firmer ground. An initial period of deleveraging gave way to measured repositioning, with open interest returning to 687,200 BTC – the highest since late February, and funding rates and volume deltas both positive. Implied volatility fell to a two-week low of 55%. Weekly spot ETF inflows totaled $586.99 million, the third-strongest week of the year, with Thursday adding $53 million for a fourth consecutive positive day. Institutional demand providing a steady bid during macro uncertainty is precisely what the post-ETF market structure was built to enable. A clean break above $74,000 on volume opens the path toward $80,000; below that, the current range likely holds. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum traded near $2,100 with spot ETFs adding $115 million in inflows on Thursday, the strongest daily flow among crypto ETF categories, while open interest is at its highest since January 30. The asset received a further structural boost from BlackRock's launch of its iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHB), the firm's first staking-integrated crypto product, which debuted with over $100 million in assets and $15.5 million in first-day volume. The fund stakes 70%–95% of its ETH and distributes 82% of staking rewards monthly, embedding yield directly into a regulated wrapper. XRP broke above a months-long descending trendline at $1.39–$1.40 on elevated volume, with futures open interest surging nearly 10% to $1.86 billion and positive funding rates signaling fresh long-side conviction. Macro & Institutional Global equities sit only 4% below recent highs despite what the IEA has called the largest oil market disruption on record. Gold is heading for a second consecutive weekly loss near $5,109, as rising inflation expectations pricing out rate cuts are offsetting safe-haven demand. On the regulatory front, Hong Kong is expected to issue its first stablecoin licenses around March 24, with HSBC and Standard Chartered among anticipated early recipients – a further step in institutional crypto infrastructure development. Looking Ahead Next week delivers one of the densest central bank calendars of the year. The RBA decides Tuesday. Wednesday brings eurozone CPI, U.S. PPI, the Bank of Canada, and critically, the Fed decision, FOMC projections, and statement, with rates expected to hold at 3.75%. Thursday follows with the BoJ, BoE, and ECB in quick succession alongside U.S. jobless claims, before Powell speaks again Saturday. A Fed that signals comfort holding rates while oil stays elevated would support continued crypto accumulation; any hawkish shift in the projections could prompt a reassessment of the composure risk assets have maintained through the conflict's first two weeks. Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – March 12, 2026 Bitcoin consolidates as inflation comes in line and oil climbs Crypto markets are stabilizing as macro crosscurrents intensify. Total market capitalization is holding near $2.4 trillion, with Bitcoin consolidating around $70,000 even as oil trades back toward the $100 per barrel level and U.S. equity futures point modestly lower. The dollar remains firm near recent highs, while 10-year Treasury yields hover around five-week peaks as investors reassess rate expectations. U.S. inflation data released on Wednesday showed February CPI in line with forecasts, with headline inflation at 2.4% year-on-year and core at 2.5%, signaling moderating price pressures prior to the recent energy rebound. Because the report predates the latest move in crude, markets are now watching whether sustained oil strength filters into forward inflation expectations. Energy remains the key macro variable. Shipping disruptions have tightened supply conditions, though strategic reserve releases are limiting extremes. So far, cross-asset moves reflect recalibration rather than stress and crypto is trading with similar composure. Bitcoin Bitcoin continues to consolidate within a $69,000–$71,700 range, trading near $70,100. Holding this structure while yields firm and equities soften reflects balanced positioning rather than extended risk-taking. Derivatives activity is gradually picking up, with total Bitcoin futures open interest approaching $30 billion, based on Glassnode data. The increase appears incremental rather than aggressive, and funding rates remain subdued, a sign that leverage is building cautiously. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $117 million in net inflows, extending the positive streak since the start of the week. Continued ETF demand amid a macro-heavy backdrop reinforces the idea that institutional allocation flows remain steady. Contained volatility alongside inflows suggests accumulation is structured rather than speculative. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum edged higher toward $2,100, with open interest rising 4% but without a sharp increase in leveraged exposure. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs added $57 million in net inflows, maintaining positive momentum and supporting price stability near recent levels. Among major altcoins, XRP slipped around 1% toward $1.37, while Solana eased modestly and Cardano and Polygon traded largely flat. In contrast, select tokens such as HYPE and TAO posted gains, showing pockets of relative strength. Macro & Institutional With CPI meeting expectations, attention now shifts to whether elevated energy prices persist long enough to shape inflation expectations. The firmer dollar and higher yields reflect shifting timelines for potential rate cuts rather than renewed tightening expectations. Gold-linked crypto exposure has cooled, even as bullion fluctuates near recent highs, indicating that inflation hedging via tokenized assets is not accelerating. Selective altcoin outperformance points to internal rotation rather than broad risk reduction. According to UBS scenario analysis, energy market outcomes hinge on how shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz evolve, with projections ranging from a normalization toward $70–$80 oil to scenarios that could keep prices above $100 if disruptions persist. On the regulatory front, the SEC and CFTC formalized a memorandum of understanding to coordinate more closely on digital asset oversight. Improved inter-agency alignment reduces structural uncertainty and supports the longer-term development of crypto market infrastructure. Looking Ahead The market now looks to jobless claims and Friday’s PCE release for confirmation on the inflation trajectory. A contained reading could reinforce ongoing institutional accumulation and keep Bitcoin supported near range highs, while firmer inflation – particularly alongside elevated oil, may extend consolidation as liquidity expectations are recalibrated. Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – March 11, 2026 Bitcoin tests $70,000 as geopolitics weigh on risk appetite Crypto markets softened over the past 24 hours as fading optimism around U.S.–Israel–Iran de-escalation pressured sentiment. Bitcoin fell back below $70,000, Ethereum declined around 2%, and Dogecoin underperformed following a brief spike tied to renewed attention around Elon Musk’s X Money initiative. In traditional markets, U.S. equity futures edged lower while Brent crude stabilized near $90 per barrel amid reports the International Energy Agency may consider a record reserve release. February CPI came broadly in line with expectations, with headline inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, reinforcing a cautious but stable policy outlook. Cross-asset positioning remains measured, with oil dynamics and inflation expectations continuing to drive near-term volatility. Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading around $70,000, while total crypto market capitalization holds near $2.38 trillion. Derivatives positioning appears contained. Funding rates are neutral to slightly positive across major assets and softer in higher-beta altcoins, suggesting restrained leverage demand. BTC perpetual open interest stands around $28 billion, materially below the October 2025 peak, indicating active yet uncrowded participation. Implied volatility has moderated from weekend highs to mid-cycle levels, reflecting moderate near-term uncertainty being priced. On the flow front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $250.9 million in net inflows on March 10, led by IBIT and FBTC. Aggregate ETF assets are approaching $90 billion—approximately 6.4% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization—with cumulative net inflows reaching $55.8 billion, underscoring ongoing structural allocation. Ethereum & Altcoins Ether and major altcoins followed Bitcoin down, declining between 1% and 3%. Leverage remains below 2025 expansion levels, with open interest in ETH, SOL, and XRP materially under last year’s averages. Funding rates remain neutral to slightly soft, suggesting limited directional conviction. Spot ETF flows are mixed and losing momentum at the margin. Ethereum continues to post modest inflows, supporting a relatively stable institutional bid. In contrast, Solana and XRP have recently recorded net outflows, pointing to softer incremental demand. Although cumulative inflows and assets under management remain elevated, the recent flow profile suggests stabilization rather than renewed expansion. Capital remains present, but conviction appears selective and measured. Macro & Institutional Oil remains the primary cross-asset driver. Reports of a potential record IEA reserve release pushed Brent back below $90, though markets view stockpile measures as temporary relative to geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields continue to track energy-driven inflation expectations. February CPI print came benign relative to expectations. It does not materially shift the Fed trajectory and slightly reduces near-term hawkish risks. Markets are likely to treat the report as supportive for risk assets — but oil and geopolitical developments remain the dominant macro catalyst. Looking Ahead With U.S. CPI out of the picture, focus turns to U.S. jobless claims, housing data, trade figures, and the thirty-year bond auction on Thursday, offering further signals on labor market resilience, housing activity, and investor appetite for duration. Friday closes with final fourth-quarter GDP, durable goods, income and spending, and core PCE (3.1 % year-over-year consensus), plus Michigan consumer sentiment. U.K., Eurozone, and China credit data round out the global growth picture. Inflation and issuance dynamics remain central to cross-asset volatility into the weekend. — Dessislava Ianeva, Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

Daily Market Dispatch – March 10, 2026 Bitcoin reclaims $70,000 as oil pullback calms markets The total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.39 trillion following a measured recovery, with Bitcoin trading in the $69,000 to $71,000 range and ether holding above $2,000 as oil prices retraced from recent geopolitical-driven highs. Brent crude, which briefly approached $120 amid concerns over Strait of Hormuz disruptions, has declined toward $91, while West Texas Intermediate trades near $88. U.S. equity futures are mixed, the U.S. dollar index has eased toward 98.5, and gold remains near $5,175 per ounce as markets continue to balance geopolitical risk against inflation implications. Energy remains the dominant cross-asset variable. The trajectory of oil will likely dictate near-term rate expectations, influencing yields, the dollar, and risk appetite across asset classes. Bitcoin Bitcoin’s rebound appears aligned with improving macro conditions rather than renewed speculative excess. As crude moderated and the dollar softened, Bitcoin advanced more than 4%, with the upside move reinforced by over 100 million US dollars in short liquidations. . Perpetual futures open interest edged slightly higher, indicating incremental capital deployment following the squeeze. On-chain distribution during the correction created a significant ownership cluster between $60,000 and $70,000, where nearly 600,000 Bitcoin changed hands. This range may function as structural support if macro conditions stabilize. A sustained consolidation above $70,000 would likely reduce resistance until the $80,000 region. Institutional positioning remains constructive. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $167 million in net inflows on Monday, with recent weekly totals reaching approximately $934 million. While spot volumes and network activity remain moderate, steady ETF demand indicates that institutional capital continues to engage on pullbacks. Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory remains closely tied to liquidity conditions and the direction of yields. Ethereum & Altcoins Altcoins moved higher alongside Bitcoin’s recovery, though gains remain contained. Ether traded near $2,046, XRP approached $1.38, and Solana advanced modestly, while broader participation remained range-bound. The move reflects improving macro sentiment following the pullback in oil rather than an independent expansion in crypto-specific demand. Flows, however, remain selective. U.S. spot ether exchange-traded funds recorded $51 million in net outflows at the start of the week, highlighting uneven institutional engagement relative to Bitcoin. Altcoin performance remains conditional on Bitcoin maintaining stability above $70,000 and on continued moderation in yields. Macro & Institutional The Strait of Hormuz remains a key macro risk variable. Although oil prices have retraced from recent peaks, the geopolitical premium persists. Markets continue to assess inflation risk against de-escalation expectations, contributing to volatility in equities and bond yields. While crude would likely need to rise materially further to trigger meaningful demand destruction, markets typically adjust rate expectations well before economic data reflects strain. At a structural level, continued progress in tokenized settlement infrastructure reflects gradual modernization within capital markets. While not an immediate catalyst, these developments support longer-term institutional integration across digital asset markets. Looking Ahead The week’s key catalysts are concentrated midweek: U.S. CPI, crude oil inventories, and the 10-year note auction on Wednesday; initial jobless claims on Thursday; and U.K. GDP alongside U.S. GDP, Core PCE, and JOLTS data on Friday. These releases will directly influence rate expectations and dollar direction. If inflation prints moderate and yields stabilize, recent recovery attempts in risk assets may extend. Iliya Kalchev Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.

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Daily Market Dispatch – March 5, 2026 ​​Flows return as Bitcoin eyes structural hold above $70,000 Crypto markets are stabilizing, with total capitalization rebounding to $2.45 trillion as Bitcoin trades near $72,000. The advance is unfolding against geopolitical tensions, yet price action suggests capital rotation and institutional flows are outweighing headline-driven fear. Traditional markets remain more restrained. U.S. equity futures have softened after Wednesday’s rebound, while oil continues climbing on disruption fears around the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing inflation risks. Gold is supported by geopolitical stress but capped by dollar strength and liquidity dynamics. The cross-asset signal is nuanced: energy is repricing inflation expectations, equities are stabilizing tentatively, and crypto is testing whether renewed demand can offset macro uncertainty. Bitcoin Bitcoin trades near $72,900 after rebounding sharply from $63,000, though the broader structure remains transitional. That makes sustained acceptance above $70,000 pivotal. The cost basis of short-term holders sits near this level, defining a distribution zone that must convert into support for the recovery to mature. Institutional flows are now reinforcing stabilization. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $462 million in net inflows on Wednesday, marking a third consecutive positive session and lifting weekly inflows to roughly $1.1 billion. Futures open interest has rebounded from $27 billion to $32 billion, reflecting renewed participation. Above current levels, $75,000 stands out as a key gamma magnet. On-chain data also show a thin supply zone between $72,000 and $80,000, suggesting that if demand persists, resistance may prove limited. The market is shifting from stress-driven selling toward balance; durability now hinges on sustained spot absorption. Ethereum & Altcoins Ethereum trades near $2,180 after reclaiming $2,000 with authority. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $169 million in inflows, reversing prior minor outflows and signaling renewed appetite for higher-beta exposure. Altcoins moved broadly higher, reflecting improving risk tolerance across the digital asset complex. Capital is cautiously extending beyond Bitcoin, though sustainability remains tied to the persistence of ETF inflows and macro stability. With Ethereum still well below prior cycle highs, this remains a recovery phase rather than a late-cycle expansion. Rotation is returning, but durability will depend on continued capital commitment Macro & Institutional Geopolitical escalation remains the dominant macro variable. Oil has climbed for multiple consecutive sessions, with Brent hovering near its highest levels since mid-2024 as supply disruption fears intensify. A prolonged energy rally risks embedding inflation pressure and narrowing the Federal Reserve’s flexibility. Recent U.S. data complicate the outlook further. Private payrolls surprised to the upside, ISM services activity reached a multi-year high, and the Fed’s Beige Book pointed to moderate expansion across several districts. Resilient services and labor conditions have reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts, pushing easing further out. Looking Ahead Attention now turns to Friday’s Producer Price Index and Chicago PMI releases, which will shape near-term rate expectations and determine whether energy-driven inflation pressures begin feeding more directly into policy pricing. If labor data remain firm and inflation prints show moderation, Bitcoin’s acceptance above $70,000 could solidify and open a path toward the $75,000 liquidity cluster. An upside surprise in price pressures, however, would likely temper momentum and extend consolidation as markets reassess the trajectory of monetary policy. Iliya Kalchev Nexo Dispatch analyst For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice.