Crypto Penetration blog 🔩

On Tuesday, the US Department of Justice agreed to drop charges against "Bitcoin Jesus" Roger Ver. He got off scot-free. As a reminder, he was accused of tax crimes in the US.

🔻Ethereum Downtrend 📝 More and more countries, including the US (Clarity Act), are improving crypto regulations. Meanwhile, Ethereum is fluctuating between ups and downs... ✨ Skeptics believe Bitcoin is also facing a similar correction.

📈 New Bitcoin ATH 📊 Bitcoin updated its ATH this week and almost reached $110,000 mark. The first cryptocurrency stopped at $109,721. 🇺🇸 This is happening against the backdrop of the ongoing crisis in the US economy - a decrease in demand for US Treasuries. Most likely, the price of the first cryptocurrency is being pushed by the consideration of the Bitcoin Reserve bill in Congress and the agreement between Republicans and Democrats on the stablecoin law in the Senate. 🤑 Maybe the US will increasingly abandon dollar financial instruments in favor of crypto and BTC.

🇺🇸 USA: GENIUS Act Failed in Senate 🛑 This happened due to a change in the position of Democratic senators who previously supported the law. Now they voted against it, led by Kirsten Gillibrand. Previously, she was one of the main initiators of this law. 🚦 Senators said that the new Republican amendments to the law are too insufficiently developed in the area of ​​AML and investor security. Democrats generally believe that this law and the entire crypto policy of the Republicans in the United States lobbies too much for the interests of the crypto business (and Donald Trump personally). 🤯 It seems that the situation with crypto regulation in the United States is getting worse and new laws on crypto are being postponed because of the Democrats. On the other hand, while there are no new laws, most decisions will be made by regulators (CFTC, SEC, OCC, FinCEN), which are led by Republicans. So crypto businesses can benefit even from this failure.

🇹🇭 Does Thailand ban P2P? 🤔 Last month Thai SEC has forbidden unlicensed crypto exchange and set up high penalties (about $8000) for its violations. That’s why Bybit and other crypto exchanges without license in the country have deleted P2P functionality. 🐟 As result of these updates local P2P market will transfer to platforms with local license, such as: Binance Gulf, Bitazza, Kucoin, etc. Tourists and crypto investors need to pass verification there.

🇳🇬 Nigeria: A new step towards legalizing crypto 📄 According to Forbes, the new version of the Investment and Securities Act (ISA) 2025, which came into force in Nigeria last month, has eliminated uncertainty in the regulation of crypto transactions in the country. 🏛 Now all crypto companies require licensing by the local SEC, and the procedure for paying taxes on crypto transactions is similar to other securities operations. ▶️ This is a big step forward for Nigeria and although the new regulation is unlikely to please everyone, licensing and control of the industry by the SEC is definitely better than prison terms and multi-million dollar fines for foreign exchanges. 🌐 Given that Nigeria is one of the largest crypto markets, this is a continuation of the movement towards the legalization of crypto in all regions of the world. But it is still not entirely clear how this law will work, including for foreign exchanges.

🇺🇸 USA: More than 70 crypto ETF waiting for SEC approval in 2025 👀 Eric Balhunas from Bloomberg set up a list of crypto assets awaiting for SEC ETF approval this year. 📃 In addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, his list includes several ETFs on XRP, Solana, Polkadot, Avalanche. There are also Cardano, Aptos, Dogecoin, Trump, Melania and other crypto assets. ✈️ But TON is not on this list. Not yet.

🇺🇸 Trump's Tariffs and Their Impact on the Crypto Market ↩️ Time flies and the panic in the markets due to Trump's tariffs seems to have calmed down. Bitcoin is trading above $90,000 again this week. The inflow of funds into the Bitcoin ETF has exceeded $2 billion in a week. 🔻 So far, cryptocurrencies have proven surprisingly resilient - the level of capitalization decline at the peak of the panic did not exceed the decline in the stock markets. I wrote about this in more detail in this article. ⛈ In addition, in the long term, the role of Bitcoin as a global strategic asset will grow, and the possible flight of capital from the dollar and American stocks may ultimately add liquidity to the crypto market.

💸 Circle to replace VISA and Mastercard? 🗯 The issuer of USDC and EURC stablecoins announced the launch of its own cross-border settlement system yesterday, Circle Payments Network (CPN). 🏆 Its main advantages include low fees and fast settlements that will be made using Circle stablecoins. 🏃 The main partners for the new system are banks, neobanks, crypto exchanges and wallets. In particular, 4 large partner banks are indicated: Banco Santander, Deutsche Bank, Société Générale and Standard Chartered Bank. 🏍 Circle has also announced integrations with Alfred Pay, BCB Group, BVNK, CoinMENA, Coins.ph, Conduit, dLocal, dtcpay, Flutterwave, FOMO Pay, HIFI, Inswitch, Legend Trading, Nilos, Noah, Nuvei, Onafriq, OpenPayd, RD Technologies, RedotPay, TazaPay, Transfero Group, Triple-A, Trubit, Unlimit, Yellow Card, Zepz, and Zodia Markets.

✅ Is El Salvador's Bitcoin License a fake? 🇸🇻 Donald Trump recently met with El Salvador's President, Nayib Bukele. Just in time for the meeting - though they didn't talk about crypto - statistics from the Central Bank of El Salvador on local companies with a Bitcoin License appeared. 🏦 Only 22 out of 181 companies conduct real operational activities in the country and meet other regulatory requirements (AML, security). The rest were unable to meet the Central Bank's requirements (or did not want to). 📃 This is a good example of the fact that not all crypto licenses are needed, especially for startups - you can always find a partner with a license and negotiate with them. This is often much better than getting a license and then finding out that you can't work under it. 🌐 Specifically in the case of El Salvador, there are two important points: the crypto market in this country is very small and licenses are frequently obtained to work from there as an offshore jurisdiction with low taxes. It is unlikely that all companies that received a license found it useful in practice. ✊ In addition, El Salvador is now tightening its policies and requirements for registered crypto companies, due to pressure from the IMF. The new type of CASP license is more difficult to obtain.

🔭 Crypto Regulation News Digest 🇵🇰 In Pakistan, FinInform presented a draft law on cryptocurrency regulation at the end of last week - evidence of a complete victory for the legalization of cryptocurrencies in emerging markets. Vietnam is coming and then, apparently, mainland China and Africa. 🗽 The SEC and Binance are negotiating a deal and have asked the judge for a two-month break in the process. Previously, crypto business could only dream of such a result in the US. It seems even this case, in which the SEC has trump cards, is to be closed. 🇺🇸 US Senate Banking Committee Chairman, Tim Scott promised in an interview with Fox News that a federal law regulating VASP activities would be adopted following the law on stablecoins - in August of this year. The news seems to be good. The political system in the United States means that the adoption of laws usually takes more than a month. 🚥 The problem is that it is still unclear which of the laws Tim Scott had in mind - he could have meant the Financial Innovation Act (which we were so looking forward to last year), or the Digital Asset Market Structure Bill. Different projects for the same law, which Congress approved last year, but now the whole procedure has started over again. 🔄 In short, despite all the positivity towards crypto from the Republicans, it seems that the law regulating VASPs will be discussed in the fall. Or even next year. 🇪🇺 ESMA Executive Director, Natasha Cazenave warned about the growing threat from cryptocurrencies to traditional finance. She believes that in the event of a sharp drop in cryptocurrency rates, a negative effect on all financial markets is possible. 😌 It is difficult to agree with this position. On the contrary, the panic in the financial markets last week, due to the announcement of tariffs by Donald Trump, showed the relative stability of the crypto sector. 🇦🇷 The Argentine Parliament voted 128 to 93 to launch an investigation into the Libra token and President Javier Milei's involvement in its promotion. 🇺🇦 Ukraine will introduce a 23% tax on profits from cryptocurrency transactions. This proposal was presented by the head of the Securities Commission (NSSMC), Ruslan Magomedov. The tax will only apply to the exchange of cryptocurrencies for fiat. Transactions with stablecoins will be subject to a rate of 5%-9%, the same as for the exchange of foreign currency. 🇦🇹 European broker Bitpanda received a MiCA license in Austria. The company now has 3 MiCA licenses - in Germany, Austria and Malta. 🇺🇸 Paul Atkins has been officially appointed as the new chairman of the SEC. He will replace Mark Ueda in this position. Although Donald Trump announced the appointment of Atkins immediately after winning the election, the official procedure for taking office took 3 months. 🇭🇰 Hong Kong's financial regulator (FSC) has approved the HashKey cryptocurrency exchange to add Ethereum staking to its services. 🇸🇪 In Sweden, MPs have proposed to include Bitcoin in the country's list of reserve assets. The proposal has been sent to the Minister of Finance.

🇺🇸 New stablecoin regulation in US 🔖 This week, the US House Finance Committee approved the so-called STABLE Act – a law to regulate stablecoins. The law will then be discussed in the House of Representatives. But just a month ago, another law regulating stablecoins was discussed in the Senate – the GENIUS Act. 2️⃣ These laws are almost identical: they allow the issuance of stablecoins in the US. American legislation differs significantly from European legislation in that MiCA requires that stablecoin reserves be kept only in bank deposits. 🤑 In the United States, issuers are not limited to bank deposits. They are allowed to keep funds in treasury bonds (T-bills), which is much more profitable from a business point of view. After all, interest rates on T-bills are higher than on bank deposits. 🗽 The bureaucratic processes for the adoption of the law will take several more months. There is a chance that the US will have more liberal regulation of stablecoins than the European Union. The use of American stablecoins outside the US can strengthen the status of the dollar as a global reserve currency. 🗞 I examine the above-mentioned bills in more detail in this article.

💎 Bitcoin is falling, TON is growing... 📊 Over the past week, the TON price has shown more than 7% growth - from a weekly minimum of $3.5 to $3.95. And if we take the lowest point for March - $2.39 - then the price growth was 65%. At the same time, the Bitcoin price fell from a monthly maximum of $94,000 to $82,000 at the end of this week. How is this possible? 📈 Probably, the positive news about a billion Telegram users plays a role + the ecosystem has attracted $400 million in investments from American venture funds - Sequoia Capital, Rabbit, Benchmark, Kingsway and others. Rumors about increased TON activity on the US market have been circulating for a long time. Here I will express my assumption: by the end of 2025, we may expect news about an application for TON ETF - one of the easiest ways to declare yourself on the American crypto market. ⏫ However, the growth of the TON price in March may be a short-term phenomenon. Especially if the crypto market continues to fall. This week, the inflow into the American Bitcoin ETF exceeded the outflow by a small amount - just under $200 million. Low volumes may indicate increased volatility and the possibility of a sharp movement in the Bitcoin price, both up and down - depending on the overall situation in the financial markets next week.

📝 Weekly Crypto Regulation Digest (17-23.03.2025) 🇦🇺 Last week, Australia published a plan to develop cryptocurrency regulation in the country. Large exchanges and custody providers will have to obtain a financial license. Stablecoin regulations are also planned . 🇵🇰 Bilal bin Saqib, the new advisor to Pakistan's Finance Minister, gave an interview to Bloomberg last week. He believes that the legalization of cryptocurrencies will help the country attract investments. He named the USA, Turkey, Nigeria, Singapore and Hong Kong as the countries that Pakistan is looking to as a regulatory model. 🇬🇧 The FCA refused to register Zeux Limited as a crypto provider. In general, obtaining an FCA license for crypto operations in the UK remains a difficult task, possible only for large companies, such as the broker Bitpanda. 🇳🇬 Last week, Nigerian Information Minister, Mohammed Idris commented on the ongoing conflict between the government and Binance. He noted that in Nigeria, there are other companies besides Binance that operate in the crypto space and no charges have been brought against them. 🇺🇸 Last week, the SEC held a roundtable on cryptocurrency regulation - “Spring Sprint Toward Crypto Clarity”. Interim Chair Ueda said that while memecoins and mining are not subject to SEC regulation in the US, it is possible that other types of crypto assets are - this should be the subject of further discussion within the SEC. Pierce noted that the commission plans to give its assessment of NFTs following memecoins. 🇩🇪 Ethena's (USDe) stablecoin license application was declined by German financial regulator BaFin. The stablecoin can no longer be used in the EU.

🇺🇸 Will the recession be short? 🗽 American Bitcoin ETFs showed encouraging results for traders on Monday: +$274 million in inflows. The price of TON rose by 4% in a day, to $3.62. 🏦 On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve will summarize the results of a two-day meeting. The regulator's decisions can affect the prices of assets on the crypto market and, unfortunately, the fall may continue if the Fed does not present plans to reduce interest rates and effective measures to combat the recession. This could continue to drag crypto prices down. 👁 Nevertheless, experts are optimistic about the situation in the medium term. The founder of ARK Invest, Cathie Wood, believes that the US government will use the recession to reduce taxes and the Fed rate. The rates on the Polymarket prediction market indicate the end of quantitative easing by the Fed by May of this year. Also, according to CME Group, the probability of a rate cut by June 2025 is 66%. ↩️ A rate cut by the Fed, combined with the US government's stimulus measures to combat the recession, should support the crypto market, so in the long term, the bottom for Bitcoin is near. However, it is quite likely that the current crypto market decline will continue for the next two months until the Fed starts cutting the rate.

🔻 Is the dip near? Or is the second one a gift? 📉 This week, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated between $83,000 and $77,000. The outflow of funds from the Bitcoin ETF continued - more than $700 million in the first two days of the week. Ethereum has lost 7% since Monday and is already firmly below the psychologically important mark of $2,000. 😡 At the same time, negative fundamental factors affecting the market remain - the Fed's rate is not lowered, the US trade war with the EU and Canada continues. Added to this was the risk of a government shutdown in the US (though this happens every year). 🔀 On the other hand, in the event of a further fall in the markets, the Fed and other monetary regulators may turn on the printing press, as former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes believes will happen. Moreover, the deeper the crisis, the faster the market will inevitably return to previous highs or even higher, according to Hayes' logic. CryptoQuant analysts also point out that Bitcoin is oversold.

📅 Weekly Digest 🔻 The crypto summit did not live up to expectations - the market fall continues. Bitcoin - $81,000, Ethereum - $2,000, TON - $2.65. 💬 Although Trump announced the creation of a Bitcoin reserve, Digital Asset Stockpile and the intention to make the United States the crypto capital of the world, he said that no additional purchases of crypto with government funds are planned. 📉 Considering that the Fed does not plan to lower the rate in the near future, all the news rather suggests that no new liquidity injections into crypto are planned in the coming weeks. The total outflow of funds from American Bitcoin ETFs for the week amounted to $739 million. This is not much, but the downtrend prevails. 💹 There is also good news - the American financial regulator (OCC) allowed federal banks (more than 1,000 banks) to conduct operations with crypto. Colombia has begun considering a federal cryptocurrency law, and it is one of the largest crypto markets in LatAm.

🖋 Trump signs executive order to create Bitcoin reserve 👁 The executive order was published on the White House website before the crypto summit. So far, it is simply about continuing to store bitcoins previously confiscated by the US government within a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” and not selling them. 🫙 A “Digital Asset Stockpile” will be created for other crypto assets. The Department of Commerce and the Treasury have been instructed to prepare their proposals for creating a crypto reserve within 30 days, but in such a way as not to spend additional taxpayer funds. 🎉 We will summarize the results of the week and the crypto summit (which has not yet begun) for you tomorrow.

🇺🇸 Market recovery before crypto summit 🏛 Tomorrow, the White House will host a crypto summit led by crypto czar David Sachs and with the participation of US President Donald Trump. Against this backdrop, the market is showing signs of recovery: - Bitcoin is again above $90,000 - Yesterday's Bitcoin ETF trading finally showed a small inflow (not outflow) of $22 million. 💰 At the same time, Trump's plans to include not only Bitcoin and Ethereum, but also Solana, Cardano and Ripple in the national cryptocurrency reserve are being discussed. 💢 The inclusion of altcoins in the state reserve is a very controversial initiative. In particular, Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko believes excessive state control over cryptocurrencies will greatly harm decentralization. Yakovenko also notes that the new administration's approach to creating the reserve is still unclear - the criteria by which certain cryptocurrencies are included, as well as the principles upon which the US cryptocurrency reserve will operate.