Macro Trader

Things To Know: 매일 시장 가치로 평가 받지 않는 자산에 대해 그 가치를 더 높게 주고 받았던 시기가 지나고, 이제 초기 거래 시점의 가치로 돌아갈만큼 평가를 상각하는 일이 발생하고 있음. 이는 주로 유동성에 의한 자산가격 팽창이 사그러드는 후기에 나타나는 일임. Tiger Global Management marked down the investments in its venture funds by about 33% last year, resulting in a $23 billion decline in value, according to a person familiar with the matter. Around $9 billion of the markdown came in the second half of the year, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. A representative for the New York-based firm declined to comment. In late November, Bloomberg reported that Tiger Global, which also manages hedge and long-only funds, had marked down the value of its private funds by almost a quarter. The full-year figures for the venture unit, led by Scott Shleifer, were reported earlier Thursday by the Wall Street Journal.

Bottom-line: Avengers Assemble. The US's biggest banks agreed to deposit $30 billion with First Republic in an effort to stem the market turmoil. JPMorgan, BofA, Citi and Wells Fargo will contribute $5 billion of uninsured deposits each, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley will kick in $2.5 billion apiece. Others will deposit smaller amounts. The news helped First Republic shares rebound from a 36% loss.

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Bottom-line: 유럽 중앙은행은 작금의 금융기관 위기가 확산되지 않고 해결될 것이라 자신하고 있음. 여전히 높은 인플레이션 때문에 최정 정책금리는 여전히 높다고 할 수 있음. 미국 중앙은행의 금리결정 과정도 유사할 수 있을 것임. The ECB is confident that the current crisis surrounding Credit Suisse will be resolved without morphing into something of sinister proportions. With inflation this year estimated to be 5.3%, its terminal rate is still higher -- no matter how tenuous that may look against the current macroeconomic backdrop. The read-across is that the Fed may be similarly inclined to raise rates should -- and that’s a big “should” -- the dust settle between now and when it meets. And it’s not just the Fed. We have the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank meeting next week too.

The market clearly sees this is as a dovish hike, mainly because of the ECB’s decision to exclude any guidance of further rate hikes.

Bottom-line: 성명문에는 유동성 관리에 대해서도 언급이 없었고, 금융 시장에 대한 지원을 필요할 경우 하겠다고 밝혔음. 다만, 그러한 지원의 도구나 방법이 무엇이 될지에 대한 치열한 질문을 받게 될 것으로 예상됨. The ECB didn’t announce any tweaks to its liquidity framework, let alone a new program. Instead, the statement refers to a toolkit that’s “fully equipped” to support the financial system if needed. Lagarde will probably face questions on what measures the central bank would consider in case of stress.

Market Reaction: 50bp의 금리인상에도 불구하고 유럽 중앙은행의 최종 정책금리에 대한 시장 가격 책정은 성명서 발표 전과 동일한 수준임. 유로화 또한 최저치를 기록 중인데, 정책 입안자들이 잘못 된 정책을 하고 있을 수 있다는 우려를 반영한다고 볼 수 있음. Despite the half-point move from the ECB, terminal-rate pricing stays close to pre-statement levels, now seen just 11bps higher. Two-year German bond yields erase an advance and trade little changed at 2.42%. The euro hits fresh day low at $1.0551. The fact that the euro fails to rally could be seen as an expression of concern over a policy mistake.

Bottom-line: 향후 어떤 방향으로 움직일 것이란 언급은 없지만, 인플레이션을 잘 통제하겠다는데 목표를 두고 있어 보이며, 연료 및 식품을 제외 한 물가 전망치를 올해 4.6% 상승으로 상향 수정했음. There is no flagging of future intentions. Worth noting the stress on underlying inflation in the data-dependent approach - and the ECB revised up its 2023 forecast for inflation excluding energy and food to 4.6%.

Bottom-line: 다만, 향후 어떤 형태로 정책을 가져갈지에 대한 언급은 없었고, 이는 최근까지의 관행과 다른 형태임. However, we’re not getting any guidance on the next steps. That’s a departure from recent practice.

Bottom-line: 성명서의 첫 문구는 명확함. 인플레이션이 너무 오래 너무 높게 유지될 위험이 있음. The first sentence of the policy statement is very clear: “Inflation is projected to remain too high for too long.”

Bottom-line: 유럽 중앙은행의 50bp 금리인상은 금융시장의 변동성보다 인플레이션에 대한 우려가 더 작용한 것임. We have a half-point hike, in line with earlier guidance. It seems like inflation concerns outweighed the dramatic moves in financial markets.

Bottom-line: 얼마전까지만도 유럽 중앙은행의 금리인상이 50bp가 될 것이라데 의심의 여지가 없었지만, 실리콘밸리은행과 크레딧스위스 위기로 인해 오늘의 금리결정이 중요한 시사점을 가지게 되었음. Things looked straight-forward until a few days ago. Officials had all but pre-announced another 50 basis-point interest-rate increase. Inflation data since then only cemented that commitment, and investors had little reason to doubt them. Then Silicon Valley Bank collapsed and Credit Suisse was hit by a confidence crisis, leading to a rapid re-pricing of ECB interest-rate bets and calling into question the outcome of the meeting.

Credit Suisse Surges 40% on Lifeline, Fueling Bank-Stock Rally.

Bottom-line: 미국 은행의 부실사태가 유럽에도 상륙하면서 당초 50bp 금리인상이 예상되었던 유럽 중앙은행도 25bp 인상폭에 그칠 것이란 전망이 생김. 높은 물가를 통제해야 할 중앙은행의 책무가 남았지만, 금융 안정성의 붕괴를 우려할 수 밖에 없는 상황에 처했기 때문임. 미국 중앙은행의 금리 결정이 일주일 남았기 때문에, 오늘 유럽 중앙은행의 결정은 은행의 위기가 통화정책에 어떤 영향을 줄지 첫 신호가 될 것임. The European Central Bank’s plan to raise interest rates by another half-point on Thursday has been thrown into question by banking turmoil that began in the US but has since landed with a jolt much closer to home. The crisis at Credit Suisse Group AG that followed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has left analysts less certain that the intended hike will in fact materialize. Investors, too, have pared bets to nearer the 25 basis points that Bloomberg Economics and Deutsche Bank now predict. While worries over inflation haven’t gone away, the challenge is to battle elevated price gains with financial stability already in the balance. It’s the same for the US. But with the Federal Reserve’s next rate meeting still a week away, the ECB will give the first indication of what the banking blowup means for monetary policy.