Macro Trader

단기 인플레이션 기대는 내리고, 소비자 심리는 개선되고, 🤔

Bottom-line: 골드만삭스의 자산관리 부문에서 2023년 전망 보고서를 발간하며, S&P 500 지수가 올 한해 12% 가량 상승할 것으로 전망함. 이는 모건스탠리와 같은 곳에서 22%의 하락으로 저점에 도달한 뒤 올 한해 총 2% 미만의 상승으로 마감할 것이라는 전망과 궤를 달리함. 흥미로운 점은 골드만삭스 자산관리부문도 45%~55%의 확률로 올해 경기침체를 맞이할 것으로 보지만, 무엇보다 작년에 크게 하락한 지수로 인해 완전하진 않으나, 대부분의 성장 침체를 반영했다는 입장임. 그들은 금융위기 이후 가장 큰 폭으로 하락한 주식시장에서 이미 가치평가를 새롭게 시작한 것 같다고 하며, 기업이익이 바닥을 치기 6~9개월 전 주식시장의 저점이 형성되었다는 점을 강조함. 쉽게 말해 본래 주식시장의 저점이 형성되는 시기에도 나쁜 뉴스만이 도배되고 있다고 함. A recession in the US won’t necessarily spell bad news for stocks in the aftermath of their biggest annual decline since the global financial crisis, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s wealth-management business. Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, chief investment officer of the unit, expects the S&P 500 to rebound as much as 12% in 2023 even in the event of a mild economic contraction as the index — which sank 19% last year — now largely reflects the risk of growth stalling. “We’re not arguing that today’s valuations fully discount a recession,” Mossavar-Rahmani wrote in her 2023 outlook, co-authored with Brett Nelson, head of tactical asset allocation for the wealth group. “But considering last year’s equity drawdown, we do think a significant part of any valuation reset has already occurred.”. Their call is at odds with the view held by some top Wall Street strategists, who have warned that US stocks don’t fully reflect recession risks. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson — one of the most vocal bears on the region’s equities — said this week the market is still underestimating the full impact of stunted growth and that stocks could slump another 22%, which would take them below last year’s troughs. He expects the S&P 500 to rise less than 2% in 2023. The Goldman wealth team assumes a 45%-55% chance of a US recession in 2023 and sets out three scenarios for markets depending on its timing and nature. They also expect stock prices to remain resilient to any decline in corporate profits if the recession occurs early in the year, noting that in past bear markets, equities have typically bottomed six-to-nine months before earnings reach their low. “Put simply, markets bottom when the news is still bad,” they said.

Bottom-line: 중국의 경제개방에 따라 유럽의 사치재 판매를 영위하는 기업들의 주가가 시장보다 배로 빠르게 상승 중임. 가파른 주가 상승은 애널리스트들의 목표주가를 훨씬 뛰어넘었고, LVMH 의 경우 사상 최고가를 기록함. 비용압박이 심했던 작년 한 해, 가격 결정력이 소비자보다 우위에 있던 이 기업들의 강세는 이제 중국의 소비를 넘어, 불확실한 미래에도 미국과 유럽 소비자가 지갑을 열 것인지에 달려있음. This year’s brisk rally in the shares of Europe’s luxury powerhouses — fueled by China’s reopening — is making analysts look bearish, which is very unusual as the sell-side has been cheerful on the industry for years. The discrepancy has led to current stock price levels trading above analysts’ targets. The MSCI Europe Luxury Goods Index is running at about twice the pace of the broader market, with giant LVMH hitting a record high this week. That’s left consensus targets trailing valuations, with a 10% downside seen for the sector over the next 12 months. Luxury good manufacturers’ strong pricing power proved handy when costs surged last year. Now the strength of the rebound in Chinese consumer demand, as well as the willingness of US and European consumers to spend despite an uncertain economic outlook are key to whether this outperformance will continue.

Bottom-line: 일본 10년물 국채금리가 0.54%까지 상승하며 새롭게 제시 된 중앙은행의 통제선도 넘어섬. 전세계에서 가장 완화적인 정책을 고수해 온 일본도 인플레이션으로 인해 변화를 보일 것이란 베팅은 헤지펀드들이 더 많은 국채 공매도를 실행하게 만들고 있음. 씨티의 경우 다음 주 일본 중앙은행이 국채수익률곡선통제를 없앨 것으로 전망하고 있음. Japan’s benchmark bond yield breached the central bank’s new ceiling, with traders positioning for more changes to its yield-curve control policy next week. The 10-year yield rose as much as four basis points to 0.54%, a day after Yomiuri newspaper said the central bank will consider policy adjustments to counter turbulence caused by last month’s tweak. The benchmark yield pared its rise after the Bank of Japan announced a second round of unscheduled debt purchases. Traders are ramping up bets that the BOJ will exit its ultra-dovish settings as inflation accelerates, after doggedly clinging to the policy even as major counterparts tightened. Citigroup Inc. now expects the central bank to terminate its yield curve control next week, and hedge funds are shorting sovereign bonds. 

Bottom-line: 물가지표 발표 이후 2월과 3월 통화정책회의에서 인상하게 될 금리 폭이 50bp 이하로 내려감. 이는 시장 참여자들이 3월에는 금리를 인상하지 않을 수도 있다는 확률을 책정하기 시작한단 의미임. Traders have begun to price in the possibility that the Federal Reserve might not even hike interest rates at all at its March meeting following a widely anticipated increase in February. Front-end rates plunged after consumer-price index data showed inflation is slowing, giving the Fed scope to tighten less. Comments from official Patrick Harker also helped support the move. In the wake of that release, swaps shifted to show less than 50 basis points of tightening priced in across the next two meetings.

• Bottom-line: Giving Fed Room to Downshift on Rates A key gauge of US inflation posted a moderate increase in December, adding to evidence that some price pressures are easing and offering the Federal Reserve room to slow the pace of interest-rate hikes next month.

• In-line. 🫶🏻

Bottom-line: 물가지표 이후 중앙은행의 정책금리결정까지 길이 남은 상황에서 주식과 고수익 회사채가 2019년 이후 최고의 1월을 준비하고 있지만, 여전히 추세를 뛰어넘었다 할 수 있는 변곡점은 넘지 못함. 다만, 회사채와 국채 간 수익률 차이가 위험 임계점인 600bp에서 큰 폭으로 축소 된 상태로 경기가 침체할 것이란 전망을 무너뜨린 상태임. Risk assets are off to a sizzling start to 2023, but they are still shy of sustainably breaking out of the previous year’s deep downtrends. That’s why there could be plenty of scope for strong reactions in either direction to both Thursday’s US inflation print and the barrage of Fed appearances slated to follow it. The S&P 500 and Bloomberg’s gauge of US junk bonds are both poised for their best January since 2019. The spread between high yield notes and Treasuries has compressed well down from the 600bps that could be regarded as a serious warning sign about economic conditions, belying all those recession forecasts out there.

Bottom-line: 제프리 건들락은 중앙은행이 어떤 의도를 가지는지보다 채권시장이 어떻게 반응하고 있는지를 봐야 한다고 함. 그는 40여년의 경력을 바탕으로 채권시장을 중앙은행보다 봐야 한다고 강력하게 주장했으며, 현재 채권시장의 스왑 금리는 임긍상승률이 예상을 하회하고 서비스 부문 지표가 악화되며 중앙은행이 책정한 최종금리보다 낮은 5% 미만에서 거래되고 있고, 경기침체 압력이 심해지며 올해 금리인하에 이를 것으로 보고 있음. 정책금리에 가장 민감한 2년물 채권금리도 화요일 4.25%에 그치고 있음. Prominent fixed-income manager Jeffrey Gundlach said investors trying to figure out how the interest-rate situation will play out should pay attention to the bond market rather than the Federal Reserve. “My 40 plus years of experience in finance strongly recommends that investors should look at what the market says over what the Fed says,” the DoubleLine Capital LP Chief Investment Officer told listeners on a webcast Tuesday. A number of Fed officials have indicated that they expect to lift their policy target — currently a range of 4.25% to 4.5% — to more than 5% and keep it there for some time. But markets appear much more skeptical. Swaps are currently pricing in a peak of less than 5% and suggest that policy makers will in fact begin cutting again before the year is out as US recessionary pressures bite. Treasury yields have tumbled in the wake of recent data showing a moderation in US wage gains and a contraction in the services sector. Far from pricing in a benchmark above 5%, Treasury yields across the curve are trading below the Fed’s current range, with even the two-year note ending just shy of 4.25% on Tuesday.

Implication: 애플의 내재화 계획 Apple Inc. is planning to start using its own custom displays in mobile devices as early as 2024, an effort to reduce its reliance on technology partners like Samsung and LG and bring more components in-house.